Daily Covid toll in US remains huge, but cases drop

The past few weeks in the United States have been the deadliest for the coronavirus pandemic, and residents of most counties remain at extremely high risk of contracting the virus. At the same time, transmission appears to be slowing across the country, with the average number of new cases 40 percent lower on January 29 than the U.S. peak three weeks earlier.

Other indicators reinforce the current downward trend in cases. Hospitalizations are down significantly from the records in early January. The number of tests per day has also decreased, which may mask the true toll of the virus, but the positivity rate of these tests has also decreased, indicating that the slower spread is real. Still, the average daily death rate reported over the past seven days remains above 3,000, compared to less than 1,000 per day in September and October.

The country’s peaks were extremely high: nearly 1% of the U.S. population tested positive for the virus in the two weeks to January 8 alone. This high starting point means that even after the sharp drop, Covid-19 hospitalizations remain at levels seen in early December, as intensive care units were already nearing capacity in much of the country. They are currently almost twice as high as previous highs in spring and summer.

Experts believe the decrease could mark a turning point in the epidemic after months of rising numbers of cases. But new, more contagious variants threaten to disrupt progress and could even propel case rates to a new high if they prevail, especially if the nationwide vaccine rollout faces obstacles.

Variants discovered in the United Kingdom and South Africa have both been found in the United States. Vaccine makers have said their drugs appear to be less effective against the South African variant. Other variations are also appearing: researchers have discovered a Californian variant, and a Brazilian variant that shares similarities with the South African variant appeared in the United States for the first time.

The variants may have already caused new outbreaks in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, and federal officials have warned that the faster-spreading UK variant could become the dominant variant in the US by now March. But at least for now, their presence in the United States does not appear to have significantly compromised a general downward trend. Although transmission remains dangerously high in most countries, every state is seeing a decrease in new cases. Hospitalizations are also on the decline across the country.