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Of the many questions that continue to circulate about the COVID-19 pandemic, what the future holds for the Delta variant is possibly one of the most prevalent.
“If you are vaccinated you shouldn’t worry about the Delta variant. If you are not vaccinated you are really in trouble because it is likely that you will be infected,” said Carlos del Rio, MD, during ‘a press conference. now sponsored by Emory University in Atlanta.
Over the past 2 weeks, COVID-19 cases in the United States have increased by approximately 140% and hospitalizations and deaths have increased by approximately 30%.
“The pandemic is not over,” del Rio said. The global death rate now exceeds 4 million, including 1.8 million deaths last year. “More people died in the first 6 months of 2021 than in the whole of 2020.”
Dr Carlos del Río
He attributed the increase in cases, hospitalizations and deaths to the Delta variant. “I want to stress that the Delta variant is incredibly infectious, highly transmissible,” said del Rio, professor of medicine, epidemiology and global health and executive associate dean of Emory University School of Medicine at Grady Health. System.
To put the higher transmission into perspective, each person infected with the original SARS-CoV-2 virus was likely to infect another 2.5 to 3. A person infected with the Delta variant is likely to infect eight or nine people, which in turn can infect eight or nine other people, and so on, triggering an exponential spread.
Most of the growth is occurring in places with low vaccination rates, such as Arkansas and Missouri, but it is also starting to impact Tennessee, Alabama, Georgia and Florida, a- he declared.
“Please, if you have not been vaccinated, get the vaccine because it is the best protection you have against this highly transmissible Delta variant.” The best time to get vaccinated was 1 month ago; the second best time to get vaccinated is today, del Rio added.
New cases in young adults
Because vaccination was a priority for people over 65, the risks of infection and serious consequences are lower in this group, del Rio said. The highest risk group now is younger people who may have thought, “Oh, that’s okay. I’m going to get infected and that’s it,” he said.
The largest increases in cases are among people aged 29 to 40 who are not vaccinated, del Rio added.
The Delta variant has not resulted in an increase in the number of cases in children too young to be vaccinated, he said. “Because it’s more transmissible, they’re more likely to get infected. But we haven’t really seen a huge increase in cases in very young children, children under the age of 12.”
Hide even though it is not mandatory?
“I was recently in Miami, Florida where there is a significant increase in the number of cases,” del Rio said. “And again, you go to the grocery store, who wears masks? People my age, people in their sixties, people who are probably all vaccinated. Who doesn’t wear masks? Young people who are probably people who are not vaccinated. “
Del Rio recommends that everyone wear a mask indoors in public places, even if they are fully immunized.
Asked about his opinion on the CDC dropping its recommendations for masks for fully vaccinated people, del Rio said, “The principle behind what they did… was very good and I fully support it. work is what’s a challenge. “
“My observation has been that, unfortunately, the CDC’s recommendation has become an excuse for people not to wear masks.”
During the briefing, del Rio also said that the evidence does not support fully vaccinated people who develop a “breakthrough infection” are at risk for long-term COVID illness. Additionally, people naturally immune to SARS-CoV-2 from a previous infection would likely have to wait around 3 months and then get vaccinated, as he recommends to loved ones, he said.
“The natural immunity is actually quite good, but it is not as good as the vaccination.”
Delta summer?
Although the pandemic has proved unpredictable so far, del Rio said. “This Delta variant is so quickly transferable that I expect we will see an increase over the summer and then a decrease.
“But there will be other variations coming and they will be other changes coming.”
What happens in the fall “is going to depend on what happens with our vaccination rates,” he said.
The vaccines are “amazing,” del Rio said. “I continue to be amazed to see people who are not vaccinated.”
During a recent hospital service, “every person I have seen hospitalized with COVID had not been vaccinated,” he said. “Ultimately, we have to do a better job of convincing our communities of the benefits of immunization. If we do, we will not deal with this problem. [like we are] at present. “
Based on a July 19 media briefing sponsored by Emory University.
Damien mcnamara is a staff Miami-based reporter. It covers a wide range of medical specialties, including infectious diseases, gastroenterology and intensive care. Follow Damien on Twitter: @MedReporter.
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