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Even though all-cause mortality from COVID-19 may not be known for some time, two new studies highlight that 173,300 (79.5%) of excess deaths from March to August were linked to COVID, with 4,535 deaths occurring from March to July in the youngest. adults aged 25 to 44, accounting for 38% of all excess deaths in this group.
Data from this latest study helped inspire a New York Times editorial yesterday by the likely next director of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and colleagues, who tried to dispel the myth that the disease is not fatal in young adults.
The first study, published in the Annals of Internal Medicine, found that nearly 220,000 additional deaths occurred between March and August, even after adjusting for a growing and aging US population. The second study, a JAMA research letter, reported that COVID-related deaths in young adults outnumbered opioid overdoses, a leading cause of death in this age group, in 20% of US Department of Health regions and Social Services (HHS) during the first half of the pandemic.
As the Annals However, the researchers write: “Estimating the true burden of COVID-19 will require ongoing monitoring of additional deaths by cause. Additional deaths unrelated to COVID-19 from the pandemic are likely to occur for many years due to delays in cancer screening, surgery, and other essential health care. “
Excessive deaths are the number of deaths greater than the expected number of deaths, often predicted by mortality in years past.
Downward adjustment of the overall excess mortality of the elderly
After adjusting mortality data to reflect the aging of the U.S. population, 173,300 (79.5%) of the 218,000 excess deaths from March through August were linked to COVID, according to the Annals study. Without this adjustment, 57.5% of the additional 301,400 deaths were related to COVID, but the absolute number of deaths attributable to COVID remained the same.
The researchers extracted mortality data from March 1 to August 31 from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the US Census Bureau, using provisional data as needed, and compared it to an expected death rate calculated by looking at demographics from 2015 through 2019. To increase accuracy, the researchers also took into account the 10% increase in residents aged 65 or older in 2020, an additional 5.04 million people.
During each month of the pandemic in 2020, death rates were highest in all age groups 15 and older, with the largest absolute increases in older populations. For people aged 75 to 84, there were an additional 44.3 deaths per 100,000 person-months, which is the total number of deaths in the month divided by the estimated population of that group multiplied by 100 000. Those aged 85 and over experienced an increase of 138.7 deaths per 100,000 person-months.
Non-COVID deaths peaked in April and July, with a lull in May and June. The most common causes among those aged 25 to 64 were heart disease (16.0%) and diabetes (8.6%), and among those aged 65 and older, the leading causes were ‘Alzheimer’s (67.4%) and diabetes (48.3%). (Several causes may be listed on the death certificate.)
However, the pandemic may also have affected these deaths due to disruptions in healthcare and patients’ reluctance to seek services.
Surprisingly, 20,500 fewer cancer deaths occurred during the study period. Researchers believe COVID may have replaced the side effects of cancer. For example, on November 14, 11,000 COVID deaths in the United States were in cancer patients.
Thousands of COVID deaths among young adults
In the first 5 months of the pandemic, 76,088 all-cause deaths occurred among young adults, with each month showing an excess, according to the JAMA research letter. Researchers found that 11,899 Americans over the age of 25 to 44 died than expected (18%), including 4,535 (38%) of deaths caused by COVID-19.
The remaining deaths indicate an insufficient amount of detection and notification of COVID-19 in this age group, researchers say.
A New York Times the opinion piece written by three American experts notes that over the past 20 years, 11,000 young adults have died in July. This year, over 16,000 have done so.
Among the authors is Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH, nominated by President-elect Joe Biden to be the next CDC director. Although they write that less than 3% of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States occur in adults between the ages of 25 and 44, “what we previously thought about the relative safety of Covid-19 in young adults just hasn’t been confirmed by emerging data. “
From March to July this year, depending on the JAMA study, young adult mortality increased in each of the 10 regions of the HHS, and distinct peak periods in three regions – in the south, southwest, and New York and New Jersey – increased the likelihood of death by 46%, 47% and 130%, respectively. In three regions of the HHS, COVID-related deaths equaled or exceeded the number of opioid overdoses for its comparative month (s) in 2018.
There is no denying that COVID-19 has taken its toll on the United States. A JAMA Today’s comment says daily COVID deaths in the United States are equivalent to 15 Airbus 320 airliners crashing each day. COVID-19 has become the third leading cause of death among people aged 45 to 84 and the leading cause among those 85 and older. In adults under 45, drug overdoses, suicide, transport accidents, cancer, homicide and other causes of death are even more common.
Yet the research letter and the New York Times The editorial urges people to be aware of the risks young adults face.
Walensky and his colleagues from Times An editorial writes that the country has already hit its expected death toll for that population (154,000) by mid-November – ahead of the planned vacation. “[Following COVID mitigation tactics] is even more important now that safe and effective vaccines are a reality, ”they write.
“Young and healthy people are low on the priority list for vaccine deployment. This means that changing behavior now can save thousands of young lives next year.
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