DC region sees increase in COVID-19 cases, but vaccinations mitigate delta impact – so far

Amid a nationwide rise in the coronavirus and full-blown epidemics in some states where the overall pace of vaccinations has been delayed, the more transmissible delta variant of the virus is of growing concern and is causing cases and serious illnesses.

In the DC region, where COVID-19 vaccinations have exceeded the national average, there are growing indications of the spread of the delta variant and what appears to be a slight increase in coronavirus cases compared to pushed elsewhere. In Virginia, there has also been a slight increase in hospitalizations related to COVID-19.

But health officials in the region continue to point out that the vast majority of coronavirus-related cases, hospitalizations and deaths are among people who have not been vaccinated. Experts continue to say that the most effective way to protect yourself, even against the delta variant, is to get the vaccine.

“The important thing and the underlying message is that what we have seen is that vaccines are still effective against the delta variant and especially in the prevention of serious illness,” said Dr Jinlene Chan, deputy secretary. to the public health services of the Department of Maryland. of health.

Vaccines mitigate delta impact in Maryland – so far

In Maryland, the seven-day average of daily new cases hit a low early last month at less than 60. However, the case rate has recently increased, reaching 179 earlier this week. Maryland on Thursday recorded more than 300 new cases daily for the first time since May.

“We’re seeing an increase in our numbers and an increase in the delta variant as well,” Chan said. “But in that area, Maryland has lagged behind the rest of the country and in a good way, and I think a lot of it is because of the people who have been vaccinated.”

Maryland has just under 58% of its population fully vaccinated and over 70% of adults fully vaccinated, which is the highest vaccination rate in the DC region.

Chan said these vaccination rates have “blunted the impact of this new variant here in Maryland.”

Still, data indicates that the variant of concern is entering the DC region, although perhaps not as much in other parts of the United States.

Variants of concern are identified by an additional layer of lab tests that involve sequencing the genetic structure of the virus, which may take time to fully address.

The CDC tracks variants of concern and provides bi-weekly reports with data from the previous week. The most recent data goes through July 3. According to these data, the delta variant accounts for over 61% of the variants of concern nationwide. (Testifying before a Senate panel this week, CDC director Dr Rochelle Walensky said an even more recent snapshot showed the delta variant accounted for 83% of sequenced variant cases across the United States)

In the vast health region that includes Virginia, Maryland, and DC – as well as Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Delaware – the Delta accounts for 45.3% of specimens sequenced, well below the national figure.

But the regional presence of the delta variant has more than tripled from what it was on June 19, the last time the CDC reported the data when the delta variant only made up 12% of identified variant cases. in this health region. .

“We were fortunate to have the highest vaccination rates and we have fallen behind in seeing the impact of the delta, but I would say at this point it’s the predominant variant in Maryland and that region, ”Chan said.

What makes the variant so concerning is that it seems to spread more easily.

“It’s definitely more transmissible,” Chan said, citing research in the UK and Israel and early studies in the US. “There is early evidence to suggest it may cause more hospitalizations,” but it’s still early days, she added.

However, all indications, so far, are that the current crop of vaccines is effective.

“Everything we’ve seen so far says that the vaccines – the current vaccines that we have – are effective against the delta variant,” she said.

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Concern about breakthrough cases

As the number of virus cases has increased elsewhere in the country, there have been growing questions – and even alarms – about the groundbreaking cases, which involve infections of fully vaccinated people.

Late last month, Maryland Health Secretary Dennis Schrader provided data to Maryland lawmakers showing that, as of May 10, 97% of all COVID-19 cases in the state as well as 89% of hospitalizations and 89% of deaths involved people who were not. vaccinated.

Overall, since the state’s vaccination efforts began late last year, there have been just under 2,500 known cases of COVID-19 involving people who were fully vaccinated – which means that they were infected more than two weeks after their last dose of vaccine – out of 3.5 million people who were vaccinated during the same period.

In total, there have been more than 190,000 COVID-19 infections in total in Maryland during the same period.

DC health officials are expected to release full data on COVID-19 cases in the district on Thursday afternoon.

Virginia sees increase in cases and hospitalizations

In neighboring Virginia, health officials earlier this month released a dashboard to track groundbreaking cases.

Overwhelmingly, the vast majority of people infected with the coronavirus, who become seriously ill and die, are not all vaccinated, data shows.

Since the end of January, 99.4% of cases in Virginia, 98.6% of hospitalizations and 99% of deaths have been in unvaccinated people, according to data from the Department of Health.

There are sometimes cases of a “breakthrough” of the virus in those vaccinated, but even then the vaccine offers strong protection against illness or hospitalization, doctors say.

Like Maryland, Virginia has recently seen a slight increase in the number of cases.

The seven-day average of new daily cases is on the rise. Last month, the seven-day average fell below 200 for a few weeks for the first time. More recently, however, the number has risen to over 400.

Yet the seven-day average of cases is well below the peak in January 2021, when vaccines were not widely available and the average number of cases in the Commonwealth was 20 times higher – reaching around 6,100 new cases daily. at the peak.

Virginia has also seen hospitalizations “steadily rising,” said Julian Walker, spokesperson for the Virginia Hospital and Health Care Association, which maintains an online dashboard that tracks daily hospitalization rates.

In the past week or so, hospitalizations of COVID-19 patients or patients with pending test results exceeded 300 for the first time in a month. This is “considerably lower” than a peak of 3,200 hospitalizations in January.

“But at the same time, these numbers are high compared to just a few weeks ago, when we were in the 200 for daily hospitalizations for COVID-19,” he added. “It’s a concern because we are monitoring these numbers every day,” he said. “But for the prospect, they’re much, much lower than they were in those previous peaks… So, comparatively, things are still pretty stable.”

Walker, who attributed the increase to a variety of factors, including greater social activity and likely the presence of the delta variant, said it was still too early to see if the recent increase in hospitalizations was part of it. ‘a more sustained trend or more than one failure. .