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Health experts say the United States could turn the corner on COVID-19, while warning that the pandemic is far from over.
The peak in coronavirus infections of the delta variant of the virus is slowing down and cases are starting to decline. Experts believe the United States could be on the back of the wave, even if deaths and hospitalizations remain high.
But low vaccination rates in many parts of the country give them pause, with some saying another seasonal surge after vacation travel is likely, although not as high as last winter. There could also be regional peaks as some areas worsen while others rebound faster.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the seven-day average of cases in the United States has declined over the past two weeks. As of September 14, the daily average of new cases was just under 150,000. As of Tuesday, it had fallen to about 95,000.
Former Food and Drug Administration commissioner Scott Gottlieb said in a recent interview with CNN that the decline is greatest in the southern states, where the delta variant is essentially short of people to infect.
It could be the “last major wave” in the United States, but Gottlieb warned the wave was not over yet.
“I don’t think this has taken its course,” he said. “It’s been a highly regionalized epidemic from the very beginning… but I think at the back of this wave of delta infection across the country, once we get through that, maybe it will be -being from the last great wave of infection. “
Gottlieb estimated that on Thanksgiving, COVID-19 will become rampant with much more manageable case levels. The rate of decline will be faster if children are allowed to be vaccinated earlier, he said.
David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said it was important to put the drop in the number of cases into perspective. Just because they are declining, he said, doesn’t mean the country is done with the pandemic.
“Every time in the past that we thought we were done and got out of the woods, we got it wrong. So I would be very hesitant to say it, ”said Dowdy. “I think it’s also important for people to realize that right now, even though the cases are going down, the number of cases that we are seeing is still quite high. I think things are going in the right direction, but it’s a little too early to claim victory.
The United States has experienced several different peaks and valleys periods throughout the pandemic. Many hoped that July’s low point, coming after many states relaxed COVID-19 precautions and vaccines became widely available, signaled the start of the end of the pandemic.
But then the infections started to increase, with the delta variant becoming the dominant strain across the country. People with the most severe cases were largely the unvaccinated, and the states most affected by the outbreak had the most unvaccinated residents.
Even though the delta surge has peaked, it will be some time before hospitals overwhelmed with unvaccinated coronavirus patients see relief.
Hospitalizations and deaths tend to delay the number of cases by a few weeks or more because it takes time for people to get infected with the virus and then become sick enough to need urgent care.
Celine Gounder, epidemiologist and infectious disease specialist at New York University and Bellevue Hospital, said on CNN this week that she agreed with Gottlieb that the delta’s surge was decreasing, but she expects at least one more wave this winter in the post-holiday travel period.
“Every time people travel and create what are essentially new social networks and new transmission networks, you will see a bump,” Gounder said.
She said that last winter the nation experienced a “three-hump increase” between Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Years.
“I don’t think it will be as bad as last year. I think we’ll see an increase in transmission over the holidays… then I think we’ll turn a corner, assuming more people get vaccinated, ”she said.
All experts agreed that improving vaccination rates is the key to stopping transmission and making COVID-19 a much more manageable disease.
“At some point the wave will end, but it will end faster if we get more people vaccinated,” Dowdy said.
Natural immunity in previously infected people can help a bit, but levels of protection vary widely.
“Infection produces a range of results. Some people produce very good protection and some don’t. It’s a lot more consistent if you give people a vaccine, ”said William Hanage, epidemiologist at the TH Chan School of Public Health at Harvard.
Hanage said the most optimistic part of the current situation is that there are many vaccines available that can prevent people from going to the hospital. But it is also the most frustrating aspect.
“If you had told me a few years ago that we would experience a winter like the one we are seeing now, I would have been quite horrified. However, I also have in mind how much worse it could be if we didn’t have the vaccines, ”Hanage said.
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