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While NASA is trying to gain support for its Artemis Moon program by 2024, the annual assessment of agency programs by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) concludes that performance in terms costs and schedule "continue to deteriorate". with the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), the Space Launch System (SLS) and the Orion spacecraft. The average launch time between NASA's major programs is the largest time since the beginning of the GAO's 2009 report series.
As required by Congress, the GAO reports annually on the status of NASA's major programs, projects and activities, that is, those whose cost of the life cycle exceeds $ 250 million. For 2019, it evaluated 24 projects in formulation or implementation. They include science, manned spaceflight, technology, aeronautics and space networks.
GAO found that since its last report in May 2018, "cost growth has increased by 27.6% and the average launch time is about 13 months, the most important delay we have ever reported" .
The JWST, which was much behind schedule, was largely responsible for the growth in costs and timing. Last year, NASA had to delay the launch of JWST from October 2018 to March 2021 and add more than $ 800 million to cost due to integration issues with prime contractor Northrop Grumman. JWST is the continuation of the Hubble Space Telescope and will study dark energy, dark matter and exoplanets.
NASA's big new rocket, the Space Launch System, and the Orion crew space shuttle that will launch aboard to send astronauts past the low Earth orbit are also major contributors to the dark GAO assessment. .
SLS's owner, Boeing, "underestimated the complexity of the main stage engine assembly and the time and manpower required". Development costs increased by $ 1.4 billion and the calendar slipped beyond June 2020.
NASA's updated cost estimates for Orion result in a 5.6% increase in development costs due to the delay in the first launch, the underperformance of subcontractors and the range increases imposed by The NASA. This estimate concerns only the second launch of Orion, Artemis-2, in September 2022. This will be the first Orion to transport a crew. Lockheed Martin is Orion's lead contractor and "according to Orion's contractor's estimates, further growth in costs is likely," according to the GAO.
Three other projects that have experienced significant cost growth since the last GAO assessment by these projects are:
- Ground Area Ground Area Maintenance (SGSS): Increase of $ 167.6 million to cover the period between the initial readiness review in September 2019 and the review final acceptance in November 2020;
- Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON): $ 2.2 million due to problems with its Pegasus launcher; and
- March 2020: Cost increase of $ 37.7 million due to problems with Sample and Caching Subsystem and SHERLOC.
On a positive note, GAO reports that Parker solar probe cost $ 40 million less provided that.
GAO points out that NASA is not seeking funding for two major projects that the Trump Administration wants to end, although Congress has rejected these proposals in the past: the wide-area infrared surveyor telescope (WFIRST) and plankton, aerosols, clouds and the ocean. Ecosystem (PACE) Earth's scientific spacecraft. Although not included in NASA's budget, the agency is following congressional guidelines and will require $ 3 billion over the next five years.
At the same time, NASA is launching major new projects, such as Artemis.
As a result, NASA will either have to increase its annual funding request for major projects, or continue to carry out inter-project financing as part of the annual budget request.
"… NASA currently manages a portfolio of programs that costs more than its expected annual budget request can sustain, and this trend will continue, provided that its budget requests stay on the same track. Our previous work on Defense Department acquisitions shows that when agencies engage in more programs than resources can afford, unhealthy competition for funding is created between programs. This situation can result in inefficient funding adjustments, such as the transfer of money from one program to another or the carry forward of costs in the future. – GAO
Yesterday, NASA's Office of the Inspector General (IG) released an audit of the Europa Clipper and Europa Lander missions under development. They will investigate the moon of Jupiter, Europa. The IG warned that neither one nor the other would probably respect its launch date, set by law, of 2023 and 2025 respectively, partly because of the shortage of hand-to-hand Works at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), where they are managed.
The GAO also warned of a labor shortage for the Clipper project, which has been about 7% below planning levels since February 2017. Cost and cost savings are calendar are also below expectations and a "cost exercise in anticipation of the confirmation review indicated that costs would rise above preliminary estimates …. "
The law requires NASA to launch Clipper on SLS, but the agency has not made a final decision on the rocket it will use. He argues that he could save $ 700 million by using a commercial rocket instead. NASA explained to GAO that if SLS were used, only the costs of launching Delta IV Heavy would be charged to the project and the Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate (which manages the SLS program) would absorb the additional costs.
The 24 projects evaluated by GAO are:
Formulation
- Europa Clipper
- Mapping and interstellar acceleration probe (IMAP)
- Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, Oceanic Ecosystem (PACE)
- Psyche
- Restore-L
- Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST)
Implementation
- Commercial Crew Program
- Double asteroid redirection
- Ground exploration systems
- Satellite-2 Ice, Clouds and Land Elevation (ICESAT-2)
- Ionosphere Connection Explorer (ICON)
- Indoor exploration using seismic surveys, geodesy and heat transport (InSight)
- James Webb Space Telescope
- Landsat 9
- Low Arrow Flight Demonstrator
- Demonstration of the laser communication relay (LCRD)
- Lucy
- March 2020
- Synthetic opening radar NASO-Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)
- Orion
- Parker solar probe
- Sustainment of the Ground Segment of the Space Network (SGSS)
- Space Launch System (SLS)
- Topography of surface waters and oceans (SWOT)
Last updated: May 30, 2019 at 6:31 pm ET
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