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3:12 p.m. PST 01/19/2021
by
Pamela mcclintock
Like last year, James Bond’s ‘No Time to Die’ photo could lead to a series of studio delays as insiders strategize on how long it will take for the box office be restarted.
Hollywood executives in charge of the release schedule could not have imagined they would face another big migration in 2021 as the COVID-19 crisis continues. The feeling of déjà vu is demoralizing as they seek to revamp their spring and early summer slates.
Almost a year ago MGM surprised rivals by pushing James Bond photo No time to die from April to November. Soon, however, all studios followed suit before most theaters in the United States closed on March 20. Hollywood and theater owners have assumed that the theater will resume in the fall of 2020. It was not. In the case of No time to die, it was then pushed back to April 2, but even that date won’t hold up, sources say The Hollywood Reporter.
The only question left is whether MGM will move the 007 mast in October, December or November. The studio declined to comment. “I think everything is important between now and Top Gun: Maverick early July will move. It’s a mess, ”predicts a seasoned studio manager.
This group of films includes Paramount A Quiet Place, Part II (April 23), Disney’s Black Widow (May 7) and Universal’s Fast Furious Payment F9 (May 28), which were all originally slated to bow in 2020. There’s also Sony Venom suite, which should open on June 25, a week before Top Gun and Universal’s Minions: The Rise of Gru take place in theaters on July 2 before the July 4 corridor.
During the pandemic, Universal turned to early release of its films on premium VOD in order to keep the product pipeline, but insiders say theaters need to be opened up around the world for films such as F9 and The servers.
“Lest anyone thinks that the transition from 2020 to 2021 would magically solve the problems that have puzzled the industry for the past nearly 12 months, the reality is that many of the same market forces are still at play. and will continue to inform the strategy decisions of studios and creatives, ”says Paul Dergarabedian of Comscore. “Having said that, there is hope for a theatrical film recovery on the horizon, but of course that future is ever-changing.”
Adds Eric Handler of MKM Partners: “In my opinion over the year, the first quarter will be down 90%.” Recent titles that leaked space from January to March include Sony Morbius and Warner Bros. ‘ The Many Saints of Newark, the studio Sopranos prequel.
Warners is a studio that takes a different approach, which recently moved to Legendary Godzilla vs. Kong from May 21 to March 26. That’s probably because the studio wants to keep the momentum going for its new initiative to debut its 2021 Slate direct on HBO Max and in open theaters.
Handler believes the second quarter of 2020 will bring some improvement, but earnings will still be 30-40% of normal compared to a three-year average (2016-19). He notes: “It depends on how quickly we reach a peak in infections. If they can immunize a million people a day, things will start to speed up. “
This story first appeared in the January 20 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.
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