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As COVID-19 vaccines continue to be administered across Canada, the latest national modeling data shows there are signs of epidemic growth in parts of the country.
Seven-day moving average spawning number (Rt) in Canada trending above one since June 18, after several weeks of “exiting an epidemic growth pattern with values below one”, Dr Theresa Tam , Chief Public Health Officer of Canada. , identified on Friday, while adding that the overall number of lowercase letters may cause more fluctuations in the Rt value in Canada.
“While most jurisdictions remain outside the epidemic growth pattern, some are showing signs of increased disease activity and an Rt trend greater than one, as restrictions have been relaxed,” he said. she declared. “This growth is not unexpected, but it will be important to respond to new cases and clusters with testing, case finding and targeted vaccination efforts to slow the spread.”
“If Rt remains consistently above one for several weeks, with a predominance of the highly contagious Delta variant, we might expect a return to rapid epidemic growth, especially as measures that slow the spread are relaxed.”
To date, more than 81% of the eligible population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 66% are fully immunized.
Provincial and territorial data for mid-December to July 12 revealed that 0.5 percent of cases were in fully vaccinated people, infected 14 days or more after the second dose. Only 0.7 percent of hospitalized cases occur in fully vaccinated patients.
The majority of cases, hospitalizations and fatal outcomes occur in unvaccinated people in Canada.
Short-term forecasts predict an increased growth rate for cumulative cases but not for cumulative deaths. It has been predicted that Canada will experience between 1,432,555 and 1,441,610 cumulative cases of COVID-19 by August 8, and between 26,570 and 26,700 deaths on the same day.
Longer-term forecasts turn to September, predicting a “stronger resurgence if community-wide contact rates rise too quickly, underscoring the need for continued caution.”
“This suggests that we are at the start of the fourth wave driven by Delta, but that the trajectory will depend on the continued increase in full immunization coverage and the timing, pace and extent of the reopening,” said the Dr Tam.
“We expect cases to be mostly concentrated in unvaccinated young people, with further spread extending to older, unvaccinated populations. Higher case volumes and older age of cases could ultimately increase the numbers. rate of critical illness and hospitalization. “
Modeling shows that if Canadians increase the number of people they come into contact with each day by 25%, the new cases reported exceed 10,000 per day. If we maintain the current level of community contact, Canada will experience a “modest increase in cases”, with fewer than 2,000 cases reported each day.
“This forecast reaffirms the need for a cautious approach to relax public health measures, to remain vigilant and responsive to signs of resurgence, and to continue to increase first and second dose immunization coverage,” said Dr Tam .
Federal health officials have also pointed out that increasing immunizations among young adults between the ages of 18 and 39 could reduce the impact of a COVID-19 resurgence in the fall and winter.
“Even with 72% vaccine acceptance among 18-39 year olds, there is still a risk that healthcare capacity will be overwhelmed with a wave driven by Delta, even taking into account very high coverage in those countries. older groups, ”Dr Tam said.
“The good news is that there are still opportunities to reduce this risk. If the proportion of 18-39 year olds fully vaccinated were to increase to 80 percent, it could significantly reduce the size and impact of the outbreak.”
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