Did the rockets miss their chance?

gfoster (Geoff Foster, sports writer): After an unbalanced and uninteresting first round, the second round of the NBA playoffs is keeping its promise. We have one team that has already hit his ticket (Milwaukee). Philadelphia and Portland managed to force a seventh game last night with home clutches, but start with the Golden State-Houston series, which will resume with the sixth game in Houston tonight. The extent of Kevin Durant's injury is not totally known, but we know that he is missing for the rest of the series. This potentially devastating news was probably a little easier to swallow for Golden State fans, since many people (including myself) examined this contactless injury on Wednesday and assumed that he had hurt his Achilles.

Does this give Houston a legitimate shot at taking this series? Or did they miss a crucial opportunity by not stealing the fifth game when KD fell?

chris.herring (Chris Herring, Senior sports reporter): Both.

If they lose the series, they will fight for what happened in the fifth match. But having said that, they still have a decent chance of pulling the wrong side. The margin of error is so much less now without KD. They have to play quite well in attack, hoping that Steph Curry or Klay Thompson are simply ineffective for a game or two. Steph plunged deep into his mind and remembered who he was in the fourth quarter, but it's not inconceivable to me that Houston benefits.

Nate Silver (Nate Silver, editor): That gives them absolutely a chance. Golden State was roughly the equivalent of half a better player than the rest of the top tier (Houston, Milwaukee, Toronto). Remove that player, and he's probably a half step behind. Without KD, they are neglected in a series of neutral matches against all these teams. However, the Warriors only need to win one of the remaining two games to end against Houston. One of these matches is at home. They are therefore always the favorites (64%, more precisely) to win the series.

neil (Neil Paine, Senior Sports Editor): The elephant in the room is strangely similar to last year. The Warriors were in the same place as Houston, 3 to 2, his opponent was injured in the key. (This time, it was Chris Paul who was away, and Golden State fought back, of course.)

chris.herring: Right.

Nate Silver: At the same time, although Harden was gone in the fifth inning and it was not that great, I think Houston as well a lot of grief. Beat the warriors without KD is always a feat – remember, they won 73 games without KD! – especially at Oracle Arena.

chris.herring: It's just that Houston had erased a 20-point lead from the Warriors and took the lead on the road, with KD in the picture, and Steph struggling. If you win this match, you are 3-2 with a chance to close it at home. They can still do it, but now they have to come back instead of just being killed.

neil: We often talk about the seeming inevitability of Golden State's victory in recent years. But if they win again, this fourth quarter will be considered a turning point, I think. A place where they took position while the season could have started to escape. Curry even started making things happen in the fourth quarter, after a brutal series for the most part.

Nate Silver: I do not know – the whole game seemed to be a loss for Golden State. The first half in particular was wide open and sloppy, which, in your opinion, was more like the traffic jam of the Warriors than that of Houston.

chris.herring: Some really clear things that killed the Rockets. Paul has never fired so badly in a playoff game. Kevon Looney became PJ Tucker for one night, with all the offensive rebounds. The weird game at the end of the game.

Nate Silver: Sometimes, I wonder if these teams in charge of analyzes do not put enough emphasis on the offensive rebound. Of course, they spent more time than me reviewing the data. But some types of situations increase the percentage of offensive rebound more than others, and this can be a hidden source of value.

chris.herring: Maybe it was just the game of GSW to take unless the Rockets took it from the Warriors, which is about Nate saying that the game would have taken place in Oakland.

I'm really stuck on the "what if?" From this result. What if it was potentially the last game at Oracle and the Rockets could end this game tonight at home? The hype around tonight would be crazy.

I guess similar to last year, when Houston had a lead of 3-2 but without Paul.

neil: It should be noted that with KD on the field of the series, the Warriors reach +8.8 per 100 possessions; without him, they are -6.2. So this injury really adds a huge late ride to what was already a mega-interesting series.

chris.herring: I know that the Warriors have won championships without KD and have even played games without him since joining the team. But I think it's interesting that they got used to relying on him in the playoffs.

He had led them scoring for eight consecutive games.

neil: It also completely changes how they play. They are running a lot more isolations with KD.

chris.herring: Even for Steph and Klay, moving from that to having to do everything again is a change.

gfoster: Obviously, Curry and Thompson will have to tackle the offensive to make up for lost production – and both have been rather mediocre, if not bad. But without DeMarcus's cousins ​​and with a thin bench, I wonder how it affects them defensively. How do you think the two teams fit?

chris.herring: I guess the Warriors will start Looney without Durant there.

You really do not have many options.

But the Rockets can darken their defense in a very different way without Durant in the mix.

Nate Silver: I guess the only thing about Golden State is that it exists between KD and Steph – and Klay! – there is probably some Decreasing returns in terms of being able to get a nice appearance. This means that KD will not suffer as much as if they did not have another very intensive player (Curry) or another super-efficient player (Thompson). However, the margin of error against the Houston defense may be less.

neil: If the lack of depth of the warriors finally catches them, it is now.

Nate Silver: Yes, what really worries me about GSW is the bench units. Curry still does not look exactly right, and if you play 42 minutes, whatever, it's probably not great.

But it's not good either if you play 38 minutes and you have 10 minutes of a rather terrible alignment.

gfoster: Similarly, Draymond Green has problems again, and it's even more complicated.

chris.herring: It is quite disconcerting to consider how inevitably we are talking about the fact that the Warriors win again, when a wound like this – an injury that prevents it from playing the rest of the series, but not during the playoffs playoffs – is so consistent.

neil: The flip side, though, is how they still have a good chance of winning without a top-five player. Any other team loses a player of KD's stature and it's over.

Nate Silver: Over the past few seasons, our model has typically garnered about 50% of Golden State to win the championship at the start of the playoffs. Sometimes a little higher, sometimes a little lower. Anyway, it's still far from 100%.

chris.herring: I am interested to see how Paul responds tonight. And to see if Tucker is again a pest as he was in the fourth game.

He is not a very serious offensive player, but Tucker not having to keep KD throughout the match could open the door for him.

neil: Tucker, Paul, and (strangely) Austin Rivers seem to be the standard bearers of Houston. When they play well, the Rockets have won. Harden, on the other hand, was fairly homogeneous in production between the victories and defeats of this series.

Nate Silver: That's usually how it works, Neil. ? But I agree. This is one of those series where, in my opinion, every match was the deserved result, despite some nauseating controversy of the first game.

neil: Well, what I mean is that it's not exactly Harden who has made an unusual comeback in Houston. (To the extent that 35 points per game is perfectly normal for him, haha.)

Nate Silver: I agree, it's all the game plan that worked. And I do not think the game plan really worked in the fifth game.

gfoster: The Trail Blazers and Nuggets will play the seventh game in Denver. The seventh games of the NBA playoffs strongly favor the home team: nearly 80% of them have gone home. What are the chances of Portland to be part of this group of 20%?

neil: One might think that this figure would be even more favorable to Denver because the Nuggets enjoy such an advantage.

Nate Silver: We actually have Denver at "only" 76%, which is a little below the historical norm and we take into account that the aloft teams have a bigger advantage on the ground. But the home team in the seventh game is by definition the best seed, and the problem with the Nuggets is that they are not as strong as a typical team with a lot of seed.

chris.herring: The chances of the Blazers are excellent if they can get an extra game like the one they just played in the sixth game.

neil: Rodney Hood! He knows that a new contract is coming. Average of 16.2 PPG in this series.

Lady Lillard also had the chance to warm up to three, as he was against OKC.

chris.herring: This tweet m & # 39; bluffed hell:

neil: LOL

chris.herring: Not just Hood, either. Zach Collins also played his game in Game 6 and progressed unexpectedly.

All this while the bench of the Nuggets did almost nothing at night.

It's a little history of the whole series.

Nate Silver: If Zach Collins and Enes Kanter and Rodney Hood have group games … maybe that just means that Denver is not very good?

chris.herring: The Nuggets failed to get Nikola Jokic out of the field.

gfoster: I wonder how much fatigue will start playing a factor, which we have obviously seen in these long series. Lady looks a little gassed no?

Nate Silver: Jokic also looked gassed at times, except that he always looks like that, so it's hard to read too much.

chris.herring: Lady has managed ridiculous fire yesterday – both of the type "he is in a different regional code" and another where he was falling and throwing something and dropping it anyway.

Nate Silver: Did we discuss the four extra minutes game? I thought that some of the decisions to use the players were quite ridiculous, as far as the teams that do not fit in their benches anymore.

neil: Yes, there were wild totals recorded in this game. Jokic played 65 minutes!

Nate Silver: Most in a playoff game.

chris.herring: Yeah. Mike Malone said he needs to trust his bench a bit more.

gfoster: C.J. McCollum played 60. Lady played a relatively windy game 58.

chris.herring: It's difficult. Denver backup guard Monte Morris, who in my opinion was one of the two or three most stable bench players in the league, scored 4, 3, 0, 2, 6 and 0 in this series .

And trust a bench that consistently gives you negative returns every time Jokic pauses … there is no time to watch negative returns multiply!

It's the playoffs. Every minute is huge.

Nate Silver: Randomized, but it seems that teams dependent on a PG or a C can have more depth problems than a look on their list could imply. If your star is an SG, SF, or maybe PF, you can drag a lot more players and give the team a different look. It's hard to replace a guy like Jokic, although it's fluid in your game plan.

neil: Yeah, the versatility at the center of the "defensive spectrum" of basketball (or whatever we call it) offers many other benefits.

chris.herring: 100%, Nate.

neil: Both ends use more specific skills that are not as easy to reproduce when your star needs to breathe.

Nate Silver: This is also an interesting problem with all or nothing statistics. If certain types of players make building the alignment more difficult and aggravate alignment queues when they are no longer on the ground, many stats +/- will give them by mistake credit for that.

chris.herring: There was this game to start the playoffs that Denver lost, where Jokic only took nine shots. I was about to write a complete story about this concept.

They did a much better job making sure he was constantly involved in everything since. They just have a limited bench.

I still do not want their chances in the next round. But if KD takes a little time to come back, at least they will play another lean team in GSW, assuming the Warriors find a way to get one of the next two.

gfoster: After moving east, Philly avoided the elimination and will be back in Canada for the seventh game. It has not been jostled (as much as that) by its local supporters, so it's huge. Obviously, it was a big match for Ben Simmons and Jimmy Butler, but Joel Embiid posting a score of +40 in 36 minutes while scoring only 17 points is absurd.

neil: The Philly Big 3 were extraordinary in the sixth match. They finally all gathered at once.

chris.herring: I thought Simmons was the story of the night.

Nate Silver: Although Embiid's +40 broke through in the sixth game, I noticed that Simmons had a positive rating in every Philly victory so far in the playoffs and a negative note in every Philly defeat.

chris.herring: Exactly

Nate Silver:

chris.herring: Simmons had 21 points in Game 6, but was only 33 TOTAL in games 2 to 5.

Nate Silver: This is not surprising, but Simmons is one of the ultimate players of the type "you can not live with him, you can not live without him".

neil: And one of the stories of those playoffs was whether Simmons really fit into the Philly group, especially in the long run. It has been the subject of much scrutiny and criticism.

chris.herring: I think it's somewhat unlikely that he will repeat in the seventh game on the road. But even if they can get fifteen times with him for effective shots, it's huge.

We know what it is for the moment.

Nate Silver: I am somewhat persuaded by the argument that its natural position is that of an expandable center.

chris.herring: But I think that's part of his fight with his playoffs: if you keep him, Philly and he will not be in transition, he'll have a hard time scoring, and he's gonna block the paint instead of that dunker .

I've also loved this story, Nate, and I was going to find a reason to publish it here.

neil: "A larger and sportier version of Draymond Green with greater score capability"

chris.herring: And in a way, that's what he did yesterday.

Nate Silver: I think it has become a bit underrated at this point. For example, even if you admit that he and Embiid do not get along well, if I'm one of the other 29 GMs, I'll look for a way to buy Simmons back.

chris.herring: He scored some broken pots. And he scored on fastbreaks. Your challenge is that you can prepare it during the playoffs as an opposing defense.

The fact that it is not a decisive shooting threat – as we know it will not fire – makes it different in the sense of a Draymond or Giannis Antetokounmpo. This puts more pressure on other players to find ways to score while playing defenses that take advantage of it.

But he is still really good.

Nate Silver: If Simmons shot Giannis three times, could he aim for Giannis' percentage? This is not this high a bar to erase.

chris.herring: No, I've already seen it warm up several times. While most players in the NBA, in any position, can turn a handful of three without much trouble, this is not natural for Simmons.

Nate Silver: haha

chris.herring: You're more likely to see him miss five or six triples in a row than to see him hit three or four times out of 10 while he's warming up at full speed.

Nate Silver: Do you buy the theory that he shoots with the wrong hand?

chris.herring: I think it's a real possibility, yes. When you look at it with your right hand, it sounds more natural than from the left.

And I said it on Twitter recently: I think that Giannis will be an average average shooter in the league from three next year.

neil: Is perimeter shooting a skill that a player can learn to at least be competent with enough work? I guess Giannis is a strange point of comparison because his best 3-point percentage in a season was still the 34.7% he hit as a 19-year-old rookie.

Nate Silver: Historically, many players have learned to shoot all three, especially recently.

neil: Yes, especially the big men, I suppose.

chris.herring: I can not legitimately believe that Jason Kidd is still looking for a job when he convinced Giannis (and Jabari Parker) not to shoot three more shots.

Nate Silver: But with Simmons, his free throw percentage is pretty bad, and he's bad on two long distances, so that suggests there might be something structurally wrong with his shot.

chris.herring: Whatever it is, I think the Raptors should go well at home. The series featured a number of two-way moves. If they keep Simmons out of the transition, Kyle Lowry does not lay offensive egg at home, and Kawhi Leonard is himself, I think they'll be fine

gfoster: Kristaps Porzingis aside, has there been a greater change in trading time than the one in Toronto that got Marc Gasol? I guess we could call Rodney Hood back.

chris.herring: Gasol was custom designed for this series and the match with Embiid. He does not have as much talent, but he can manage with a player who otherwise would have had the chance to break this series.

(Although it's fair to point out that Embiid also had, like, three different diseases of this series, somehow.)

Nate Silver: It's a pretty good game to the point that one of the losing teams will not feel good at all with his season. It's not like, for example, Portland who, to be honest, can be very happy even if they choke in Denver.

chris.herring: It is certainly true.

neil: And this is the point where the seasons of both teams ended last year. So they could not even indicate a place in the second round as a progress.

gfoster: Brett Brown retains his post if Philadelphia loses?

Nate Silver: I do not think so.

chris.herring: I'd like to think that it * should * be safe against a defeat, since the series has played seven games. But the owner was pretty clear in saying that he wanted to see progress on how the Sixers did well. And technically, losing again in the second round would not be a progress.

Nate Silver: I know Philly has a lot of strange seizures, but Occam's razor is that a team consisting of Embiid, Simmons, Butler, Tobias Harris and JJ Redick should be VERY good, even without a bench.

chris.herring: We've talked about it before, but I do not know if I could blame Brown for not getting more out of a group that did not spend so much time together. Especially with Embiid who is not in good health this series. But I am not the one who makes multi-million dollar decisions in these trades, hiring and firing.

neil: Yeah, even though it would not surprise me at all to take a new direction, it would seem a little unfair to me given the adequacy and lack of cohesion.

Nate Silver: I wonder if they are exchanging Simmons if they lose.

gfoster: Does Butler come back if he loses?

chris.herring: The city of Philadelphia will be rioting if they do not bring Butler back.

neil: ?

chris.herring: He has sometimes been fantastic and he is clear how much he wants to win. I think the best question is whether they'll bring Harris back – and if so, at what cost.

Butler is fascinating because of the mileage that he has on his body. But fans will be legitimately furious if they do not bring him back.

neil: I am always shocked by Butler's youth. He has the impression of living forever.

Nate Silver: For whom they would exchange Simmons is a delicate issue, because his salary is still pretty low next year. The other day, on Twitter, I suggested that an interesting job could be Simmons directly for choice # 2 or 3, and everyone seemed to hate it.

chris.herring: A Simmons exchange could immediately improve the team's chances in the playoffs, but it is also so young that it is very easy to see how and where it could improve. But that's part of the reason why I would like to at least see him doing experiments with a rider during games. You really can not do complete postseasons without even trying to hit outside the painting. And playing at the center of a team with Embiid will not work in the long run.

Nate Silver: But since he only earns $ 8 million next year, it's hard to trade him for a veteran talent without having to pack him with another and ruin your books. So, if you could trade him against a young leader and actually use Butler as your main ball coach in many queues, this could be interesting.

chris.herring: It's easy to say in hindsight, but having Landry Shamet would still be huge for this team. You also have the question of what to do with a player like Redick – one of your rare ground struts – once his contract ends this summer.

gfoster: Speaking of next season's plans, I wanted to quickly approach Boston, which was eliminated this week by Milwaukee (which we did not even mention). What will happen with this team? Does Kyrie Irving stay?

neil: What a miserable ending to the series (and probably to his career in the Celtics) for Kyrie.

chris.herring: I just want to repeat here: I think Milwaukee can and will probably win the entire match this year.

The Bucks do not have enough credit to handle their business. We wrote that the Celtics had stopped Giannis in the first match – but we did not mention them anymore. The Bucks were impressive.

neil: If the Rockets hold the home ground in Match 6, the Bucks will be the only team to advance in less than seven games. (And they did it in five.) Although idk, it says a lot about the Celtics.

chris.herring: But Kyrie … who knows with this guy?

Nate Silver: Good news, New York: Kyrie Irving is officially a helmet to play for the Knicks!

neil: LOL, Nate.

chris.herring: I do not think you can go so far as to say that Kyrie built bridges with the Celtics. But there were so many strange moments when he seemed to be talking about his teammates and all they had to do when it was unclear whether Kyrie was tall enough to say those things.

What I mean by this is that if you're not really into it and have the idea of ​​staying somewhere long-term, it's strange to easily criticize your younger teammates, who probably feel as invested, if not, more. invested, as you are. So it was interesting to see Terry Rozier say that he felt he had been busy with BS all season. It's interesting to see Jaylen Brown's many faces on the bench as their season ends.

Nate Silver: It's always difficult to see him come back. I mean, it was not this subtle to convey his intentions. Which does not mean that he could not change his mind later.

chris.herring: It was interesting to hear Al Horford admit that the Bucks have reminded him of his team of 60 Hawks winsbut with a legitimate superstar. And it was interesting to watch Kyrie have a horrible film series in which he said that he should just take more shots get out of the deal.

Yeah. I think he's gone. Knick fans had to be excited about how it all went.

Nate Silver: It is also unknown how much Boston wants to recover it. Admittedly, the fans turned against him. His teammates do not like him. It does not provide this a lot of value compared to the contract max. I'm pretty optimistic about Kyrie, but it's not a very good deal.

chris.herring: In addition to wanting to catch anything this season, I do not know why Kyrie would return to Boston at that time if he felt the whole situation.

gfoster: I think Kyrie's status in Boston depends on the Celtics pursuit of Anthony Davis, right? Would not he stay in this scenario?

chris.herring: I never understood why he was committed to staying while the season started. But the fact that he did, if he does not really want to be there, does not mean that he should still follow him. I think they're probably going to sue Davis without worrying about Irving.

Nate Silver: Mayyybee not, Geoff? Many other teams that Kyrie could turn to could also be a decent offer for AD.

chris.herring: The challenge, if Irving left / leaving, you'd have a nice, bare cupboard to get Davis to stay. Because he will soon be a free agent too.

Nate Silver: At this point next week, we will also know who has the first choice.

chris.herring: This is the risk that the Celtics have taken while negotiating for Irving. (They abandoned Isaiah Thomas, who had nothing to do, so it was not a huge risk, but still.)

This risk would likely involve Jayson Tatum and other important pieces. I think you have to make sure that Davis wants to be there before pulling the trigger.

Nate Silver: If things go wrong, the Celtics always have Tatum and Brown on cheap offers, a ton of project choices and a good staff of coaching, screening and analysis.

It is therefore a good asset on which to rely. This could make you a little more prone to taking risks, even if Danny Ainge has the reputation of being a player.

gfoster: Thus, under the new lottery rules, the Knicks, Cavs and Suns each have a 14% chance to reach Zion Williamson. The Bulls represent 12.5%, Atlanta 10%, wizards 9%.

Nate Silver: What is the most annoying scenario? That he ends up in Cleveland, maybe?

gfoster: Yes. Must be.

neil: Still, ANOTHER choice of Cavs # 1 would be hilarious.

gfoster: It's like when the Edmonton Oilers won the lottery four out of six years. (hockey reference !!)

chris.herring: Maybe I'm too purist? The idea of ​​winning a fourth lottery in such a tight window would be foolish (and perhaps depressing at a certain level because one would have the impression that an incompetent property would again be gifted. ;a star). But I also think it would make the Cavs interesting. That said, if he goes to the Hawks, it would be rather fascinating – perhaps the most interesting adjustment of the teams offering a realistic chance.

neil: Trader Young + Zion, let's go to GOOOOOO.

chris.herring: S'il va chez les Knicks, le battage médiatique sera comme quelque chose que je n'ai jamais vu de toute ma vie. Surtout avec les rumeurs selon KD / Kyrie ayant été diffusées également.

gfoster: J'aime bien l'idée de Ja Morant sur les Knicks.

Natesilver: Voulez-vous l'échanger contre Anthony Davis, cependant?

chris.herring: Donnera beaucoup de voix à l'idée que les Knicks troquent le choix n ° 1 contre un forfait Davis ou quelque chose du genre

Natesilver: Feriez-vous, CHRIS, SI VOUS ÊTES LES KNICKS?!?

gfoster: Les questions sur les majuscules ont besoin de réponses.

chris.herring: LOL.

neil: Ouais, j'ai l'impression que la partie inférieure de ce chat vient d'être que Nate veut obtenir AD, KD et Kyrie sur les Knicks.

chris.herring: Si j'avais vraiment le sentiment que j'allais avoir Durant et / ou Kyrie, cela ne me dérangerait pas. Si c'était juste Davis, et pas de morceaux autour de lui, non. Je ne fais pas assez confiance aux Knicks pour vraiment le construire à partir de rien, avec un joueur à une étoile en place.

J'espère que cela a du sens et que les fans de Knick qui ont lu cela ne me lanceront pas de pierre.

Natesilver: Je lis des babillards Knicks où les gens sont comme "Mitchell Robinson est trop beau pour échanger contre Anthony Davis."

chris.herring: Il n'est pas. Mais mec, ce serait bien de le garder si vous le pouviez.

Surtout si vous leur donnez Sion / le premier choix. Kevin Knox et Frank Ntilikina, vous vous sentirez plus à l'aise de donner.

Natesilver: Oui, je pense que Sion pour Davis est at least juste valeur pour la Nouvelle-Orléans, considérant qu’il ne lui reste en réalité qu’un an. Donc, si les Knicks abandonnent un tas d’autres choses aussi, je commence à ne pas aimer le commerce.

gfoster: Très bien, la loterie a lieu mardi et la semaine prochaine, nous aurons d'autres développements à débattre dans cette discussion hebdomadaire sur les spéculations concernant les séries éliminatoires / Wild Knicks 2018-19. Profitez de la conclusion du deuxième tour!

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