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Humanity is 100 seconds from total annihilation. Again.
That’s according to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a nonprofit organization and publication whose signature Doomsday Clock estimates – in strict “minutes to midnight” terms – how close the world has been to apocalypse since 1947.
“The collective wisdom of our group is that these are extremely dangerous times with incredibly important positives,” Rachel Bronson, executive director and editor of the newsletter said Wednesday.
The clock remains set at “100 seconds at midnight” – unchanged from last year, when its hands were set as they never were at midnight. At the time, the bulletin said the change was meant to reflect heightened tensions and deteriorated communication between the United States and other countries, including Russia and Iran.
This year, scientists have highlighted the dismal response of world leaders to the coronavirus pandemic, the erosion of public confidence in science and government institutions, the acceleration of nuclear weapons programs and the persistent threat of change. climate.
The time is gradually approaching midnight since 2018, when the clock was set to two minutes at noon.
The last time it was for this purpose was in 1953, after the United States and the Soviet Union tested their first thermonuclear weapons.
“Next year, as always, we hope to move the hands of the end of the world clock away from midnight,” said Dr. Bronson.
The bulletin’s Science and Safety Council, which is made up of nuclear and climate experts and other scientists, meets twice a year to discuss how world events should dictate where the needles of the world go. clock will fall.
They are discussing whether humanity is safer or more at risk than it was around this time last year or compared to 75 years ago, Dr Bronson said.
Even though scientists decide what time will be displayed on the clock, it is not a scientific or even a physical instrument, but a symbolic instrument.
And the annual warning has sparked some skepticism.
“If I’m charitable, I say, okay, they’re part of a larger effort to focus collective attention on urgent immediate concerns or longer-term things that could have catastrophic consequences, like change. climate, ”said Professor Andrew Latham. of International Relations at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minn.
“But it’s like the boy who cried wolf,” he said. “After a while, we won’t be paying attention.”
The council has already projected optimism about the future of the world. In 1990, as the Cold War drew to a close, the clock was set to ten minutes at midnight. The following year it was 17 minutes away, humanity’s furthest from projected annihilation since the introduction of the Doomsday Clock.
(Because the clock is not updated in real time, some geopolitical changes are over and too quickly to be recorded. In 1962, for example, its hands were not moved in response to the missile crisis. Cubans because time on the circumstances of the stalemate or what the result would be, ”the bulletin explains on its website.)
The board said this year that there are reasons for hope, highlighting President Biden’s decision to join the Paris agreement and his intention to join the Iran nuclear deal.
On Tuesday, Biden and Russian President Vladimir V. Putin avoided a new arms race when they formally agreed to extend the latest nuclear weapons treaty between their countries.
“The election of a US president who recognizes climate change as a profound threat and supports international cooperation and science-based policies puts the world on a much better footing to deal with global problems,” said Susan Solomon, professor of environmental studies at MIT and member of the bulletin’s scientific board.
Jerry Brown, the former governor of California who is the executive chairman of the newsletter, said political leaders have failed to communicate to the public the real threat posed by nuclear weapons.
“It’s time to get real and stop making nuclear weapons and find a way to eliminate them from all over the world,” Mr. Brown, a Democrat, said on Wednesday.
Mr. Brown added: “It’s 100 seconds before midnight. Wake up.”
Despite such proclamations, the public should not panic, Dr Latham said.
The time shown on Doomsday Clock is not based on an algorithm that analyzes objective data, he said, but on the concerns of smart, well-meaning people using available information and consulting each other.
The clock is “a relic of a bygone era, an artifact of an Armageddon-any-minute-now-now state of mind,” said Dr Latham.
Yet, he added, that’s no reason to ignore it.
“Once a year it reminds us that there are big dangers,” he said. “They’re all man-made, and maybe that means they can be destroyed by man.
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