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When will it be safe to shop at a grocery store or show up to the office without wearing a mask? Sooner than most experts will admit. If the coronavirus outbreak in the United States continues on its current trajectory, the need for masks outside of particular local epidemic areas will pass in a few weeks.
One way to think about the problem is by analogy with the seasonal flu. Almost no one wears a mask in ordinary settings to protect themselves against the flu, and no one is required to. The worst flu seasons in recent years have seen an average of 220 deaths per day across the country. The seven-day moving average of daily Covid-19 deaths hovers around 900, much worse still. But that’s a 78% reduction since January, and the trends are favorable almost everywhere in the country. When the 14-day moving average of daily Covid deaths has fallen below the flu level, which can happen in a month or two, we should adjust our thinking on the coronavirus accordingly.
Vaccination is the main reason for the sharp drop in Covid cases and deaths. Some three million vaccines are given every day, and once immunity is in effect, those vaccinated are at negligible risk of becoming infected, let alone spreading the infection. If you have been vaccinated, wearing a mask has virtually no direct safety benefit – to you or to others. You should always do this only because the immunity is invisible. The expectation or requirement to wear a mask is impossible to impose only on those who are vulnerable or may be dangerous.
At some point, however, the herd’s immunity is reached: enough of the population is immunized to make the risk of infection minimal in the population as a whole. Anthony Fauci places the herd immunity threshold at a complete vaccination of 85% of the American population, including children. Since the vaccine has only been approved for patients 16 years of age and older, and not all adults are ready to accept it, Dr Fauci’s goal will almost certainly not be achieved for a year or even more. never. The current figure is only 17% of the total population.
Dr. Fauci’s benchmark is unreasonably high. It ignores that many unvaccinated Americans – perhaps as many as 120 million, as seroprevalence studies suggest that actual incidence levels are three to 20 times the infections captured – have immunity due to infection. earlier. A recent large-scale Danish study estimates that a previous infection provides about 80% protection in patients under 65 and 47% in older patients. This difference is why it is important to prioritize the elderly for vaccination, as the US authorities have done. Due to this combination of factors, we will likely surpass 50% combined immunity within the next week or two.
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