Early redistribution plans show long-term GOP pullback

When the Texas Republicans presented a constituency proposal to Congress that would likely give their party a nearly two-to-one advantage over the next decade, a similar thought struck both Democrats and supporters of the ‘anti-gerrymandering: it could have been worse.

The same thought came to those who were closely watching the maps being offered in other Red states, like Georgia and Indiana, who began work on the 10-year redistribution process. While many states have yet to begin shaping their cards, Republicans in states where they control all levers of government appear to be playing a cautious game.

“Republicans are looking for certainty about risky maximization,” said Doug Spencer, an expert in constituency and election law at the University of Colorado School of Law. “I don’t know if I would have predicted that, to be honest, going into the cycle.”

The goal, according to insiders and observers, is to consolidate as many potentially vulnerable Republican candidates for as long as possible, a strategy that would create a more sustainable base of representatives in Congress from which to form a more lasting majority.

Republican lawmakers will target Democratic incumbents wherever possible – an early draft of proposed maps in Georgia put the Rep. Lucy mcbathLucia (Lucy) Kay McBathDraft Georgia Congressional Lines Target McBath, Reinforce Bourdeaux Katie Hill Launches Effort to Protect Democratic Majority in House Anti-abortion group targets Democrats before 2022 MORE (D) in what appears to be a Republican-leaning district – but they will avoid the kind of overbreadth that marked the early redistribution efforts, ambitious plans that later backfired when the district’s populations changed.

“Redistricting is a lot like trench warfare,” said Adam Kincaid, executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the group that helps coordinate the GOP’s remapping strategy. “You take your vulnerable holders off the board and then go on the offensive.”

This overbreadth has taken its toll on Republicans over the past decade. After aggressive redistribution proposals advanced ahead of the 2012 election, courts asked states like Virginia, Pennsylvania and North Carolina to redraw their maps in the middle of the decade, costing Republicans seats – and, in 2018, their majority in the House.

“There is a good argument to be made that without these mid-decade redistributions [requirements], Republicans would have taken a majority in 2020, ”said J. Miles Coleman, a redistribution expert and associate editor at the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “It shows you how fragile the majority of Democrats are right now, and it explains why Republicans feel they can play a little safer.”

Texas exemplifies Republican strategy: As the 2020 election approached, Republicans controlled 23 of 36 congressional districts in Texas. But Republicans in nine of those districts – Reps. Dan CrenshawLawmaker Daniel CrenshawGOP fined K after ignoring metal detectors. (R), Ron WrightRon WrightPhotos of the Week: Olympic Saber Semifinals, COVID-19 Vigil and Loris Trump Tries to Spin Texas’ Failed Approval: “It Was a Win” The Hill’s Morning Report – Brought to you by Facebook – Officers recount the horror of January 6 CONTINUED (R), Michael mccaulMichael Thomas McCaulOvernight Defense & National Security – Presented by AM General – Pentagon officials prepare to grill Republican lawmakers warn of greater military coordination with Russia Overnight Defense & National Security – Presented by AM General – The Quad confab MORE (R), Chip RoyCharles (Chip) Eugene RoyHouse’s proxy vote has been extended until mid-November. (D), Troy Nehls (D), Tony Gonzales (D), Beth Duyne (D), Roger williamsJohn (Roger) Roger Williams Photos of the week: Congress baseball game, ash trees and beach horse Watchdog: 7 members of Congress allegedly failed to disclose stock transactions New spotlight on Secretaries of State as battlegrounds electoral PLUS (R) and John carterJohn Rice CarterBottom line READ: Republicans who voted to challenge election results House Republicans who did not sign the Texas lawsuit MORE (R) – won by margins less than 10 percentage points.

On the Democratic side, Reps Lizzie Fletcher (R) and Colin Allred (R), both of whom won Republican seats in midterm 2018, survived tight challenges to win a second term.

The proposed new maps effectively shield both Fletcher and Allred from future Republican challenges – but they also bolster the nine of those close-knit Republicans in much safer seats. Texas won two new seats in the decennial redistribution process, one of which was designated as a Republican stronghold in the Houston suburbs and the other as a Democratic stronghold in Austin.

“These maps like the one in Texas show that there is more to do than just try to maximize the number of seats you can win,” Coleman said.

Republicans still benefit from favorable maps they themselves drew after the 2010 midterm elections, which delivered what then-president obamaBarack Hussein Obama The memo: Progressives rejoice in new power Photos of the week: a congressional baseball game, ash trees and a beach horse Judge questions private application of abortion law in Texas PLUS called a “punch” to his party. Anti-gerrymandering experts said this allowed Republicans to lock in those gains for another decade, aware of demographic and political changes that have taken place over the past decade.

“Republicans have strong partisan gerrymanders in place already, so it would be difficult to even start stretching those gerrymanders any further,” said Michael McDonald, a political scientist at the University of Florida who has been an expert on redistribution in several court cases. “The suburbs have had a more democratic streak over the past six years or so, and rural areas have become more republican more reliably. “

“These suburban districts were part of the coalition that supported the Republican majorities in Congress and in the state legislatures. Now that these areas are becoming more diverse both in terms of racial and ethnic diversity and also their political leanings, these suburban and exurban areas are no longer so reliably republican, ”he said.

Democrats are by no means happy with cards coming from Texas and other states, despite the new protections they are adding for some new cardholders. In a statement, Kelly Burton, who heads the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, accused Republicans of exorcising any chance of securing competitive seats in future elections.

“Published census data confirmed that the country is becoming increasingly diverse and less rural. This rightly scares the Republicans, which is why they aren’t just doubling down on their blatant gerrymanders from a decade ago, but also adding an extra kick to democracy, knocking out all competitive seats or in the air, ”said Burton. “Predicting election results for the next decade is in direct contradiction to the central tenet of American democracy – election results that reflect the will of the voters. “

Michael Li, senior attorney at the Brennan Center for Justice’s Democracy Program, called the Republican movements “defensive gerrymanders,” meant to stem the bleeding Republicans have experienced in the suburbs in recent years.

“Republicans in places like Texas and Georgia are clearly afraid of the suburbs and their constituents – both because the suburbs have diversified and because Republicans seem to fear they will not win back the white suburban voters who have them. have left in recent years. “Li said.” If you’re worried about having to neutralize a large block of voters, that takes away your maneuverability and the number of offensive moves you can make. “

Republicans in other states have avoided dramatic changes that could prompt the courts to intervene. In Indiana, the legislature proposed a map that leaves the Gary-based seat of Representative Frank Mrvan (D) largely alone, while supporting a district owned by Representative Victoria Spartz (R). In Nebraska, the legislature has avoided tinkering with an Omaha-based swing district now owned by Rep. Don Bacon (R), who ousted a sitting Democrat.

Insiders have warned that early drafts are far from final and that some states may still take more aggressive action against Democratic incumbents. Map of Georgia, proposed by Lieutenant Governor Geoff Duncan (R) and State Sen. John kennedyJohn Neely KennedyPLUS (R), is seen as an opening offer subject to substantial change, said those familiar with the process.

But the first Republican steps are taken out of concern for long-term stability, against the backdrop of rapidly growing urban and suburban areas that lean more toward Democrats.

“These are cards that are about 10 years old. This is a lasting majority. It’s not about creating a situation where you can take the Chamber in 22, maybe keep it in 24, but it’s gone again in 26 or 28, ”Kincaid said. “Republicans are intentional in states not to go too far, to be smart, to create opportunities to go on the offensive. Every dollar we spend on defense is a wasted dollar if we can go on offense elsewhere. “