Electric vehicle sales: Biden’s target won’t be too difficult to achieve by 2030

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It’ll be a challenge, some experts say, but it’s not really as difficult as it sounds. Sales of battery-powered vehicles, including all-electric and plug-in hybrids, are expected to account for just 4.3% of all vehicles sold in the United States this year, according to IHS Markit.

Automakers have set these goals for themselves for a number of reasons. Regulations are already changing in other parts of the world, such as Europe, where internal combustion vehicles are expected to be banned by 2035. Consumer tastes are also changing, as the growing popularity of You’re here (TSLA) showed, said Jessica Caldwell, industry analyst at Edmunds.

“No one really wants to be seen as the dodger or the dinosaur, the one fighting this progress,” she said.

As it stands, 32% of all American cars sold in 2030 are expected to be fully electric, according to a June 2021 forecast from IHS Markit. Another 4.2% are expected to be plug-in hybrids.

“So there is work to be done,” said Lea Malloy, mobility analyst at Cox Automotive. She noted that a number of areas, such as electric car charging infrastructure and greater public education on electric vehicles, may need help.

The government has already done a lot to boost sales of electric vehicles, said Derek Jones, director of mobility solutions at consultancy firm Guidehouse.

In addition to increasing spending on electric vehicle charging stations in an infrastructure bill, the Biden administration also announced its commitment to purchase electric vehicles for government fleets. The government maintains large fleets of cars and trucks and that kind of commitment alone can help build confidence in automakers, said Jones, who said he has worked with the government on the plans.

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However, the announced objectives are far from being a firm commitment. In a joint statement from various car manufacturers, it was called an “aspiration”. And there will be no penalties incurred if the goal is not reached.
Second, the term “electric” here does not only mean fully electric battery-powered vehicles. The term “electric vehicles,” as defined by the Biden administration, also includes plug-in hybrid models. Plug-in hybrids have powerful batteries and electric motors, but also gasoline engines. With fully charged batteries, they can travel a relatively short distance – typically 15 to 30 miles – on electricity before the gasoline engine has to turn on to power the ride.

Plug-in hybrids are expected to remain a small portion of overall plug-in vehicle sales, as they are today, Jones said. Yet having them in the mix makes it easier to attract consumers who might be uncomfortable committing to battery-only driving.

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