Entire bay area may be in ‘orange’ level within a week as CDC director warns of ‘imminent fate’



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Trends continue in a positive direction for COVID-19 cases in the Bay Area. Hospitalizations and deaths continue to slow dramatically, with two more local counties expected to reach “Orange” level tomorrow, with the final three expected to roll out of “Red” perhaps next week. But nationally, signs point to another sharp increase in cases – and California is certainly not out of the woods just yet.

Alameda and Napa counties are both slated to upgrade to “Orange” level for reopening on Tuesday, joining San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and Marin counties in the second least restrictive level. That leaves just three other Bay Area counties – Contra Costa, Solano and Sonoma – in the “red” for probably a week longer.

Sonoma and Contra Costa counties were the last to reach the “Red” level on Sunday March 14, meaning that the earliest possible for them to move forward again would be three weeks later, or Sunday. Easter (April 4) – and that announcement could come later this week.

San Francisco, meanwhile, turned “orange” in state statistics on the morning of March 24, and with numbers already appearing to qualify it for the “yellow” level, that change could happen as early as April 14.

However, infectious disease experts continue to warn of unlimited indoor activities like meals or movies without a mask at any time – with around 40% of the Bay Area now fully or partially vaccinated, and with variants highly. With infectious diseases proliferating in other parts of the country, it might only be a matter of time before further outbreaks or increased cases in California are seen. Some experts even say air travel is safer than eating indoors, and states are too far-reaching to allow businesses to reopen indoors as vaccination rates rise.

“No one should be eating indoors, vaccinated or not, right now,” UC Berkeley infectious disease expert John Swartzberg told The Chronicle last week. “Spending an extended time indoors with a group of strangers with everyone talking loudly perfect way to spread this virus.”

The head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Dr Rochelle Walensky, gave a terrible press briefing on Monday on the rise in COVID cases nationwide last week.

“When I started at CDC about two months ago, I made a promise to you: I would tell you the truth even if it wasn’t the news we wanted to hear. Now is one of those times when I have to share the truth, and I have to hope and trust that you will listen, ”Walensky said, per CNBC.

“I’m going to take a break here, I’m going to lose the script, and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom. We have so much to look forward to, so much promise and potential for where we are and so much to do. ‘hope, but right now I’m scared,’ she said.

The country recorded an average of 63,239 new cases per day last week, a 16% increase from the previous week. And Dr Walensky warns that such increases over the past year have presaged exponential surges soon after. She said the trajectory of infections in the United States is too similar to what Germany, Italy and France saw just a few weeks ago, and that all three countries are currently experiencing significant increases.

“I’m speaking today not necessarily as a director of CDC and not just as a director of CDC, but as a wife, as a mother, as a daughter, to ask you to just hold on a little bit longer. long, “Dr. Walensky said, likely targeting his comments in states and cities where everyone has largely lowered their guard and removed their masks, and where the biggest spikes in COVID cases are being seen.

As the New York Times reported on Sunday, Florida is averaging 5,000 new cases a day, an 8% jump from two weeks earlier. And the British variant is proliferating there quickly, especially among young people.

While only a small percentage of virus test samples are genetically sequenced to see if they represent new variant cases, the top three variants that experts worry remain in limited numbers so far in the Bay Area. As of the end of last week, authorities had confirmed 19 cases of the British variant, also known as B.1.1.7, in Santa Clara County, as well as two cases of the South African variant and one case of the immuno-resistant Brazilian variant. known as P.1.

The nine-county Bay Area currently records a seven-day average of 369 new cases per day, compared to an average of 589 new cases per day in the first week of March.

The open season for vaccine eligibility in California begins in two weeks, April 15, with people aged 50 and over being eligible starting Thursday.

And in the good news related to the pandemic, the CDC just released the results of a real-world study of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines among Americans at high risk of COVID exposure, including healthcare workers from First line. In the study, fully vaccinated people were 90% protected against infection, and those who received only one vaccine were 80% protected. And the results suggest that the vaccines prevent infection from the spreading variants and also prevent asymptomatic spread of the virus.

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