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Epidemiologist Michael Osterholm has issued dire warnings about the potential spread of the new, more contagious variants of Covid-19, saying they could produce an outbreak of cases in the United States at levels “we have yet to see in this country”.
Dr Osterholm, who is director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota and a member of President Biden’s transition team advising on coronavirus, said Meet the press host Chuck Todd that he expects to see cases of new variants of Covid-19 increase “in the next six to 14 weeks.” As a result, he said the United States may need to make a major shift in its vaccine strategy, focusing on getting the first dose of the vaccine to as many people as possible instead of trying to get them to. skip their second doses.
“We still want to get two doses in everyone, but I think for now, before this surge, we need to give as many single doses as possible to as many people over 65 as possible, in order to reduce disease. serious and the deaths that will occur over the coming weeks, ”Osterholm said.
Osterholm predicted that B117, the most contagious strain of the virus sweeping through England and found in pockets across the United States, would become the dominant strain of the virus in the country. “If we see that happening, what my 45 years in the trenches tell us we will, we’re going to see something like we haven’t seen in this country yet,” he said. “This hurricane is coming. We have to understand that because of this push, we have to call an audible.
The epidemiologist said if we see a surge of the new variant this spring, it will be worse than previous surges. “We have seen our health care system literally on the verge of not being able to provide care,” Osterholm said. “Imagine if we have what happened in England, twice as many of these cases. This is what we need to prepare for now. “
There is good news with the England strain though. So far, vaccines appear to be relatively effective in combating B117. “Fortunately [B117 strain] has not shown its ability to evade the protection of the vaccine, ”he said. “But its ability to cause a lot more infections and a lot more serious illness is there.”
Other variants, such as those seen in South Africa and Brazil, Osterholm said, present other potential concerns because they “may, in fact, lead to evading immune protection against natural disease or against disease. . [the] vaccine. “But, Osterholm pointed out, in the Johnson & Johnson vaccine trial in South Africa,” No one who had the variant of the infection that was vaccinated has died. So it may actually alleviate the infection. serious disease and not just prevent it completely.
Osterholm stressed he knows many are feeling pandemic fatigue as well as economic strain, which has led some states to ease restrictions on activities such as indoor dining. But with the new strains of the virus, Osterholm believes those openings will soon be reversed. “As fast as we open restaurants, we are probably going to close them in the short term,” he said.
So how can you protect yourself? Osterholm recommended focusing on the simple things you can do, like wearing a mask that fits and wearing it properly. “One thing that is really, for me, very important is that we see up to 25% of people who wear [their mask] under their noses, ”he said. “You know, it’s like fixing three of the five doors on your submarine… We have to get people to start using them properly. It would help tremendously there.
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