Erdogan visits US amid disagreements with President Biden | Joe Biden News

Istanbul, Turkey – Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visits New York knowing he has received a promising hand to improve relations with the United States through developments in Afghanistan.

Earlier this year, future US Secretary of State Antony Blinken mocked Ankara as a “so-called” partner of the United States for Turkey’s purchase of Russian missiles.

Fast forward to last month – after the Taliban captured the Afghan capital before the US withdrawal – and Blinken tweeted that Turkey was “an important NATO ally and an invaluable partner in the region.”

The radical change in tone offers Erdogan more than a ray of hope that relations with Washington – for several years marred by a seemingly endless litany of disputes – could be saved as he travels on Sunday to attend the United Nations General Assembly.

“The only difference in Erdogan’s policy dates back to a meeting with [US President Joe] Biden during which he convinced him that Turkey could play a bigger role in Afghanistan, ”said Emre Caliskan, researcher at the Foreign Policy Center, based in London.

Erdogan first suggested Turkey’s role in protecting Kabul airport in Biden at a NATO summit in June.

Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, director of the German Marshall Fund in Ankara, added that Erdogan would use “Afghanistan as a showcase, that in fact Turkey and the United States share interests on a number of issues, and that the states United also benefit from cooperation with Turkey.

“Ankara sees it as a subject which proves that the West still needs Turkey, or that the West still benefits from cooperation with Turkey.”

S-400 dispute

While Erdogan’s trip to New York is mainly to attend the General Assembly, a meeting with Biden would be the occasion for the last reset of US-Turkey relations.

After Biden came to power in January, he waited three months before speaking to Erdogan as the new White House expressed its anger at Turkey’s purchase of the S-400 air defense system.

The fallout focuses on Washington’s insistence that the Russian system is incompatible with NATO defenses and in particular that it could gather secrets about the F-35, a stealth fighter jet. generation that Turkey had participated in the development.

The S-400 acquisition allowed Turkey to launch the combat program in 2019, and US sanctions were subsequently imposed on senior Turkish defense officials.

The row adds to other disputes between the two states.

Turkey is unhappy with US support for Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria, he says he is linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or PKK, which fought a 37-year battle for Kurdish rights against Turkey that has killed tens of thousands of people.

Ankara criticized US support for Kurdish fighters in northeastern Syria which he considers “terrorists” [File: EPA]

He also requests the extradition of Fethullah Gülen, accused by Ankara of organizing a coup attempt in 2016, who has lived in the United States for more than 20 years. Gulen denies the charges against him.

Washington, meanwhile, has criticized Turkey’s human rights record, though there are few signs that Biden has kept his promise to place this issue at the center of his foreign policy.

More important to the United States is Turkey’s prolonged flirtation with Russia, most clearly encapsulated in the S-400 issue.

Last month, a Russian arms exports official said Turkey was on the verge of pledging to receive a second batch of S-400s, which would likely prompt further U.S. sanctions against Ankara.

An olive branch?

Selim Sazak, an Ankara-based analyst, suggested that Turkey would at least seek to delay any further Russian defense deals in a bid to mend American relations.

One possible olive branch the United States could offer on the S-400s would be to accept Ankara’s suggestion of a joint committee to handle the dispute, which the Americans have so far flatly refused.

“Even if they know they won’t make much progress, if they establish a committee, it will be an achievement for Erdogan for his national audience,” Caliskan said.

Turkey’s offer to help run the Kabul airport to ensure diplomats and aid workers can travel safely appears to be Erdogan’s best chance of attracting concessions from Biden.

Turkey ran the military part of the airport for six years before the city fell to the Taliban and NATO troops left. It currently has technicians working on the site alongside a Qatari team and hopes to expand its influence through its links with Qatar and Pakistan, the two nations closest to the new Afghan rulers.

“A common program”

Caliskan said the management of the airport has allowed Turkey to open channels with the United States, which is the “main problem” for Turkish policymakers.

“The problem with the relationship between Turkey and the United States was that they could not find a common agenda to overcome their differences,” he added. “It looks like they’ve found a common agenda now and established a working relationship.”

Unluhisarcikli predicted that the overall relationship between Turkey and the United States would be discussed as “an extension of the Afghan question”.

Although Turkey is moving closer to Russia, it remains wary of its traditional rival. Countries remain on the opposite side in Syria, Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in the Caucasus.

Likewise, Washington is keen to limit Russian influence as much as possible, Unluhisarcikli said.

As with many appearances abroad, much of what Erdogan does will be aimed at voters at home.

Erdogan under pressure

Elections are expected to take place in 2023 but could take place earlier. The president has been under pressure due to the economy, the coronavirus pandemic and the threat of further migration from Afghanistan, which would add to the estimated four million refugees currently in Turkey.

Erdogan also wants to reestablish his image as a world leader with his domestic audience, which any concession from Biden would strengthen.

He plans to promote his recently published book, A Fairer World is Possible, which builds on previous calls for reform of the UN decision-making process, and will open Turkish House, a prestigious multi-purpose skyscraper that will house the Turkish delegation to the UN. .

“By taking advantage of these two opportunities, he wants to come back into the image of world leaders,” Unluhisarcikli said.

Improved ties with the United States would also make Turkey a more attractive prospect for foreign investors providing much-needed capital to the Turkish economy.

On a broader front, Erdogan is likely to pressure other leaders to commit to how to deal with increased migration from Afghanistan. Turkey stressed that it could no longer accept refugees and would seek a plan that would prevent Afghans from fleeing its borders.

‘A lot of noise for nothing’

With the status of Kabul airport still undecided – the Taliban has refused to allow foreign forces to guard the airport, and international confidence in their ability to do the job is low – there is little concrete action to be taken. Erdogan can promise, according to Sazak.

“Erdogan has very little to offer except goodwill, which he knows is already heavily exposed,” he said. “There is very little that the United States could ask Erdogan to deliver without a very significant political cost.”

Sazak added, “Overall, it’s going to be a lot of ado about nothing. The permutation for Erdogan to achieve anything is going to be very difficult. “

Even with the Taliban’s agreement, further Turkish involvement in Afghanistan presents significant risks.

“If things go wrong in Afghanistan, that’s a price Erdogan cannot pay in Turkey,” Caliskan said. “If Turkey sees the bodies of dead Turkish soldiers, it will be a difficult situation for Erdogan. “