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Addis Ababa (AFP) – A two-decade war was declared this week at a moving meeting between Ethiopia and Eritrea, but badysts warn that it Remains a lot of obstacles to overcome after years of bitterness.
The countries of the Horn of Africa broke their ties after the outbreak of a border war that claimed the lives of 80,000 people and degenerated into a diplomatic stalemate after Ethiopia refused to surrender land to Eritrea.
41, reversed this policy last month, paving the way for a historic meeting with Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki, 71 which resulted in a statement Monday that "the state of war … has come to an end "
The nations reestablished telephone communications for the first time in two decades and Ethiopian Airlines is expected to begin serving flights between the two capitals as early as next week.
But despite diplomatic bonhomie, the negotiation According to badysts, the closure of Ethiopian ports for Ethiopian goods, the delimitation of the contentious border region and the guarantee of good relations will not be simple.
"We must certainly be careful. I think that there is a long way to go, but ultimately everyone wants a lasting peace in the region, "said AFP researcher Horn of Africa in Chatham House, Ahmed Soliman
It engulfed all of its coastline on the Red Sea until its independence in 1993 after decades of bloody conflict.
This measure made Ethiopia landlocked and deteriorating relations after the beginning of the war in 1998 forced Ethiopia to channel its maritime trade.
The two countries have shown little sign of rapprochement since the signing of the peace agreement of the year. Algiers in 2000.
Analysts say the surprisingly quick burial of the hatchet was only possible because of Abiy's rise to the post Prime Minister in April
But Abiy, described by Soliman as "a man extremely in a hurry" is already confronted an internal dissent on the rapprochement, especially of the Tigrayan minority population
Soliman said that the leaders of the Tigray ethnic group were "particularly absent" from the Asmara talks and that "their inclusion would be essential to the implementation Peace". [19659014] Isaias, the only ruler that Eritrea has known since independence, was a rival of former Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, a Tigrayan who presided over the war and the decision to Ignore the decision of the 2002 border between Isaïs and Meles
"said Kjetil Tronvoll, a professor of peace and conflict studies at Bjorknes University College in Norway
when the predecessor of Abiy, Hailemariam Desalegn, was considered "a change at the top". Dan Connell, a researcher on Eritrea at Boston University, said that Isaias sees Abiy – an Oromo ethnicity – as a break with the Tigrayans, who have been viewed in the past as the the most powerful faction of the Ethiopian Revolutionary People's Party. Democratic Front (EPRDF).
"I think this process will go to the end." Connell said, "Potential Obstacles" –
Photos of the first encounter between Abiy and Isaias in the Eritrean capital, Asmara, Sunday, their showed cuddles, smiles and cups of coffee 19659021] But Soliman warns that the details of the rapprochement will not be clear
"Eritrea and Ethiopia are both among the most Africa's poorest, but Ethiopia has seen its economy grow.Over the last two years, Eritrea, one of the most isolated nations of the world, has pursued policies that have Paralyzed the economy by scaring the ports of Somalia and Eritrea.Eritrea's ports are far from ultramodern facilities that have exploded in the neighboring country of Tronvoll says the country is still susceptible to make requests if Ethiopia wants to use its shores to expo their goods
"How many concessions are they willing to give to Eritrea to create a lasting peace (and) what will be the reactions? Tronvoll asked: "Isaias will face his own pressure to reform once the threat of Ethiopian aggression, which he used to justify his repressive policy, is over.
Hundreds of thousands of Eritreans have fled the country in recent years to Europe, accusing the national service regime of keeping them impoverished.
"If things were to open up in Eritrea in terms of political situation and freedoms, I'm sure it would encourage" But for the moment, most of the discussions on reform have come about. Abiy alone. "
" Isaias did not talk much. We have not learned much from Isaias about what will change, "said Soliman.
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