Predicting unity is one thing, but the Prime Minister's methods risk undermining the political system that unites the Ethiopian federation. Abiy Ahmed must capitalize on his brilliant and daring start with cautious and inclusive reforms.
"But even with regard to history as a slaughter bench where the happiness of peoples, the wisdom of states and the virtue of individuals have been victimized. the question arises involuntarily – to what principle, for what ultimate purpose were these immense sacrifices offered. " GWF Hegel
" The border to which the past must be forgotten if he does not want to become the gravedigger of the present, one would have to know exactly what is the plastic power of a man, of A people, a culture: I mean by the plastic power the ability to develop in its own way, to transform and integrate in oneself what has gone and stranger, to heal wounds , to replace what has been lost, to recreate broken molds. " Friedrich Nietzsche
" Since it is one that can have no end that the experience itself is fo more than the creation of a freer and more humane experience in which everyone shares and to which everyone contributes. " John Dewey
The rise of Abiy Ahmed Ali, the new president of the Oromo wing of the EPRDF, becomes the third prime minister of the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia has taken a lot by surprise, its rapid rise can be attributed largely to the accident rather than the design, as evidenced by a competitive election and the unpredictable path of candidacy.
When it became probable, after three years of chaotic protests, that the next leader would come from the Oromo People's Democratic Organization (OPDO), Lemma Megersa, then popular president of that party, surrendered Considering that it was necessary to entrust his position to Abiy.At the time, the future Prime Minister was the head of the secretariat of the OPDO and, above all, a member of the House of People's Representatives , which was not the case of Lemma, who made it i eligible for the post of Prime Minister. Few people had predicted the selfless strategic movement of Lemma, but without him, the rise of Abiy would not have occurred.
The rest, as they say, is history; A story facilitated by the last-minute withdrawal of Deputy Prime Minister Demeke Mekonnen from the election of the president of the EPRDF
At his inauguration, Abiy delivered an eloquent speech to the parliament that spoke to all sections of the Ethiopian regime. Although simple rhetoric, it has helped a lot in healing the body and soul of a fractured and feverish political entity. On the hill of this historic address, Abiy undertook trips to Jigjiga, Ambo, Mekele, Gondar, Hawbada, and more recently Semera, giving motivational speeches on the theme of love and unity. . These were laudable attempts to build bridges between Ethiopians and the national-regional divide, thus easing tensions. With his trademark of love and integration, badociated with his charismatic character, he has not only become the star of Ethiopian politics, but also a messianic figure.
The logic of hate politics in Ethiopia is such that "resentment" and "historicism" feed on each other, leading to a vicious circle of social conflict. [19659013] The great appearance of Abiy on the Ethiopian political scene must be seen in the context of 27 years of ethnic politics that saw autonomy also heightened competition. </ P> <p> It is not surprising that ## 147 ## He found an audience receptive to his aspirations to transform communal relations and to counter the dominant problem of what Max Scheler calls Nietzsche's "resentment," "historicism," or Hegel's problem of "the bench." "We, Ethiopians, indulge excessively in" resentment "," historicism ", and count the number of people of his ethnic group killed on the" bench ". "slaughterhouse of history." As a result, we suffer a lot. Hate politics in Ethiopia is such that "resentment" and "historicism" feed on each other, leading to a vicious circle of social conflict. Abiy appeared at a time when Ethiopians were desperate enough for someone who would break this vicious circle and imbue social hope.
Many badysts try to formulate their questions about the circumstances that led to the rise of the new PM and its subsequent actions. It is important to know if there is a rivalry between a new group of emerging democratic liberal politicians and an old elite guard who is hounding the official democratic revolutionary line. However, it is not so much a competition between revolutionary democracy and liberal democracy as the result of an opportunist populist who seeks power on a platform of democratization
In what follows, I Wish – albeit its instant popularity makes it difficult – to evaluate Abiy's short period dashboard, offer a sober badysis of his first 100 days in power, and the promises and perils of his reform agenda. By engaging in a critical review, I hope to help mitigate the risks of moving from performing arts to political art.
Impressive Dashboard
The dashboard of its first 100 days is indeed impressive. He forgave and released a multitude of domestic prisoners, obtained the liberation of compatriots from foreign jails, set in motion a general amnesty law, closed the famous Maekelawi torture chamber, lifted the state of affairs. urgent, denounced systematic violations of human rights. abuses (in particular, the use of torture in federal detention centers, revealed by the state broadcaster), a proactive regional diplomacy, the opening of peace talks with Eritrea, limiting its mandate and, above all, convincing speeches. First of all, it should be noted that all these initiatives are not new because some are carried forward from its predecessor, Hailemariam Desalegn. By following his words and his actions, Abiy seems to have great political ambitions. He seems to be determined to radically reform the federal system, but it is a daunting task, impossible to achieve peacefully without the support of the ruling coalition and allied parties. Indeed, a radical reform of the federation requires not only constitutional amendments, but a thorough constitutional revision in which the positions of all political and non-political participants are considered from the bottom up.
Such a reform is perilous and Abiy must be aware of the risks. The riddle of reform facing federations is how to democratize without risking disintegration. If you go on this treacherous course by attacking the EPRDF, the elephant who wears the federation on his back, you risk disintegration. The problem is particularly acute for ethnic systems, so it would be wise to err on the side of caution.
Another test of Abiy's policy will come by dealing with the consequences of his liberalizing acts, which included previously designated hosting parties. as terrorist organizations. Now, all the factions of the OLF, Patriotic Ginbot-7, and the so-called loyal opponents, old and new, are invited to operate in the homeland politics.
Abiy's herculean task manages these disparate interests and ideologies.
Herculean task of Abiy manages these disparate interests and ideologies. In the absence of guiding principles, I am not surprised that the ONLF has, several days after its commander Abdikarim Muse Qalbi Dhagah was released, renewed his promise to disrupt oil extraction and of gas in the Somali region of Ethiopia. has not detailed in concrete terms his vision of the country's political future. We do not know if his aspirations are for Ethiopia to become a liberal democracy or to stay the course with the revolutionary democracy of his party. This will be important when he will face real challenges after euphoria. When there will be no more prisoners to liberate, the people will want to see how the promises of a radical democratic change – namely political pluralism, an independent judiciary and the de-securing of ethnic relations – will be translated into reality.
The problem with his talk about love and unity – which I prefer to translate into familiar political vocabulary as "fraternity and solidarity" – is the lack of clarity on how to translate it into reality. How does he want to operationalize such ideals in the constitutional framework? Or how does he want such ideals to guide his agenda?
Although there is still time, it has not yet established a road map for the steps that will lead to free and fair elections, which creates a vacuum. For example, at the pro-Abiy rally in Bahir Dar, newly liberated activist Emawayish Alemu asked if the plan was to set up an inclusive transitional government, or if the opposition was using this openness to participate to the democratic process.
Speaking of the dangers, during an appearance on VOA Amharic, Professor Messay Kebede accurately observed that Abiy's rise within the ruling coalition was unexpected and drew a reasonable parallel with Mikhail Gorbachev of the USSR. He also claimed that the problem with Gorbachev's reforms was that they paved the way for Putin's dictatorship.
However, an important historical fact was missing between Perestroika and Glasnost and Putin's autocracy: the disintegration of the Soviet Union. Union. He shipped from the USSR to the Russian Federation. Disintegration, rather than dictatorship, is the biggest danger of the Abiy agenda. To reiterate the key point, the problem of democratic reform faced by multinational federations is how to democratize them without triggering disintegration. Abiy can he do that?
Violence related to the federal ethnic system erupted in Hawbada last month. Photo presented by the witness
Love begins at home
Never before has Ethiopia been as close to disintegration as now during this spell dominated by the hypnotic rhetoric of the Unit of the Prime Minister. It can be said that he is consolidating his power by marginalizing the ruling coalition parties, thereby jeopardizing the unity he preaches. It is beyond my remit to speculate on the responsibility of the grenade attack at the pro-Abiy rally at Mesqel Square. But I can say with some certainty that if the attack had killed the new prime minister, that would have put Ethiopia on the fast track to Rwanda in 1991.
At a meeting of Training for senior officers of the National Defense Forces, Abiy said that the military must be able to absorb the regime change. Although he was right to point out the threat of political commitment from the military, he was wrong to say that his commanders had to be able to absorb the regime change. I think that he mistakenly used the term "regime change" to designate a change of government. It was strange indeed that a government leader spoke in this way.
Abiy also held a "training" meeting with artists and members of his cabinet where he gave a PowerPoint presentation on Steven Covey's self-help tips. Habits of very effective people. I hope that we will not hope that Abiy will present briefings on Ethiopian macroeconomics and the international political economy, followed by Ethiopia's priorities in Ethiopia. foreign policy. Alas, he does not seem as prepared for these critical tasks as his political hero, Meles Zenawi.
Abiy must ensure that the hopes he has aroused are not replaced by despair. It should learn from recent outbreaks of ethnic conflict, which have claimed many lives in Hawbada, Sodo, Assosa, Kemissie, and Bati, and have led to mbadive displacement in the Gedeo and Guji areas. While admirable, rather than personally dealing with each crisis by holding meetings with the affected people, he must become familiar with the levers of the federal system designed to help resolve such disputes. Unless it is at the top of this mandate, more chaos will occur. The entropy increases with time.
If Abiy can avoid the populist wave, he can make a good Ethiopian leader
If Abiy can avoid the populist wave, he can make a good Ethiopian leader. But he should be quick to realize that ruling coalition parties are undermining his agenda. His rhetoric of love and unity should start at home with his own political base. The TPLF, for example, always seems to wonder if Abiy is auctioning the EPRDF, or his ego.
It would also be wise to include TPLF leadership in dialogue with Eritrea. There is no point in baduming that talks with Eritrea fall under foreign policy and that the TPLF, or Government of Tigray State, has nothing to do in this area. After all, the border is shared between Eritrea and the Tigray region, a member of a multinational federation with constitutional rights to self-determination.
Refusing key regional players will only reinforce the perception that it is a unique show. Abiy dethroned the EPRDF, making not only the TPLF, but all member parties, irrelevant. This would leave Abiy in a strange place where he is a distant prime minister of nine regional governments enjoying a de jure right to secede and a de facto right to rescind federal laws.
If Abiy, as president of the OPDO and EPRDF, is unable to work with other coalition parties, then the responsibility to quell the riots and ensure peace and security. The order only falls with him and his party. He must therefore go beyond the rhetoric of love and unity, to rise to the occasion and show his courage.
Finally, Abiy must prove that he is the reformist and not the populist that Ethiopians have been waiting for a long time.
(Main Image: A rally to support the reforms of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Bahir Dar on July 1. Photo of Addis Fortune.)
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