The multi-faceted problems of the new administration

In the months leading up to the election of Abiy Ahmed (PhD) as President of the Revolutionary Democratic Front of the Ethiopian People (EPRDF) becoming Prime Minister of Ethiopia, many countries, Groups and even individuals, who were watching closely, expressed their concerns and feared that there was a possibility of fragmentation in the Yugoslavian way in Ethiopia. However, the election of the new prime minister has somehow given some relief to such concerns. However, due to recent clashes in different parts of the country, the relief was short-lived and fears and worries receded, writes Neamin Ashenafi .

[19659004] Ethiopia has been shaken by prolonged waves of protests over the last three years. These protests played an important role in shaping the political landscape of the country which resulted in the resignation of the Prime Minister and the introduction of a new one. The new prime minister promised to restore peace and stability in the country and was greeted by a very warm welcome from the public regardless of political ideology, political affiliation and social status [19659004] Up to now, the Prime Minister has not detailed in concrete terms his vision of the country's political future. Even if there are indications that the new prime minister is inclined to liberal ideas, it is hard to say that his aspirations for Ethiopia are to become a liberal democracy abandoning the revolutionary democratic ideology Front.

This will be important when it comes to dealing with real challenges after euphoria. According to the commentators, when there are no more prisoners to release and no political party is called a terrorist, and when the rhetoric of the unit fades, people are beginning to question about the promises of radical democratic change in the country centered on political pluralism, an independent judiciary, a vibrant civil society, free and independent media and the normalization of ethnic tensions .

However, before the efforts made by the new Prime Minister to translate his promises into reality, various clashes erupted in different parts of the country. Clashes took place in the areas of Hawbada, Welkite, Harari, Assosa, Gedeo and West Guji and more recently on the border between Ethiopia and Somalia.

Prime Minister Abiy said groups that were not happy with ongoing change efforts were orchestrating such incidents to obstruct the process. He urged the public to defend his security and peace in order to achieve the great aspirations planned by the new leadership.

Adding insult to injury, violence in southern Ethiopia since the month of June has forced more than 800,000 people to flee their homes. According to the UN report, it takes food and other forms of help.

Violence erupted in April about 400 km south of the capital and, in general, more than 1.2 million people were forced to flee, according to the report.

"Renewed violence along border areas in Gedeo and West Guji areas displaced more than 642,152 IDPs in Gedeo area and 176,098 IDPs in West Guji area in the Oromia region, "according to the report.

Although traditional leaders encouraged the return of people to their homes after the initial fighting in April, many of them fled again in June, according to the report.

The displaced people – added to the previous ones on the Ethiopian-Somali-Oromia Lict border – have made the country host a large number of IDPs.

Following recent clashes in different parts of the country, many began to wonder why such problems were occurring at this momentous moment. What are the causes and who is behind this problem? Although these are the general questions shared by many Ethiopians and other observers, the answer to these questions remains different.

"All these incidents and clashes are not new in the country," Yilikal Getnet, president of the newly established political party. the National Ethiopian Movement (ENM) – said. For him, such incidents are the result of a power struggle within the ruling party.

"There were so many questions in the past, and finally the questions have found a breeding ground for improvement, it is the change researchers within the EPRDF who have been spreading these questions. who have spread the change have come to power and those who have lost their power could be at the root of recent clashes in different parts of the country.It's the political game in my opinion, "said Yilikal The Reporter .

On the contrary, for the constitutional lawyer Endlakachew Geremew, the problem is the result of a constitutional failure. "The recent problem is badociated with the design of the constitution.For example, if we look at the case of the Southern Regional State, six regions were merged to make one.The decision partly in the region, the Democratic Movement of the Peoples of Southern Ethiopia (SEPDM), does not effectively administer the region as it was supposed to do.For such a long time, the holiday was staggering because of the structure that had been handed to it. Then the question remains: "How is it that the region remained calm when there were two states of emergency while the rest of the country was in chaos and is now undergoing chaos? What is happening now? "S questions the lawyer of the Constitution

. Even though there are divergent views regarding recent clashes in different parts of the country, it's simply a fact that people are suffering because of these clashes. Unlike any other time, recent clashes are observed in areas that enjoy relative peace. And according to commentators, this could be related to internal political conflicts within the ruling coalition

. For Adane Alemayehu, a professor in the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Addis Ababa, the recent conflict is due to two main reasons. The first is the long-standing mistrust and, to some extent, the hostile relationship between the different parties forming the EPRDF. The second reason for him is related to maintaining the status quo.

"It is very difficult to easily eliminate existing mistrust and hostility; therefore, recent unrest could be the manifestation of the problem within the Front. What we have seen now is to pour old wine into a new bottle. The problems have not been solved properly. This may take time, but ethnic reconciliation should be implemented in the country to avoid such clashes in different parts of the country, "said the speaker.

" Who caused this change? Who will benefit from this change? It is obvious that there are groups that go empty handed by the results of the winds of change. This could be done at the level of the organization, the individual or the group and, therefore, these groups could be at the origin of recent clashes in different parts of the country. In the process, they might even try to cancel the change in order to escape the consequences that announce, "added Adane

. Many observers also think that the lack of solid institutions is one of the major reasons for the conflicts that intensify. These observers recommend that the administration of Prime Minister Abiy give priority to the establishment of solid institutions, guided by rules and regulations.

In this regard, Endalkachew argues that institutions should be reformed according to laws and procedures. "The government says it is undergoing profound reform, and in my opinion, the government's discourse on reform does not recognize the federal system, and if reform follows the top-down approach, the problems will remain the same." Therefore, the reform should follow a bottom-up approach where the public has a broad voice and is a major player in the reform process. "

Apart from this, the efforts of the new administration, which attempts to build a legitimate government, should operate according to existing laws and procedures. "You can not escape the legitimacy deficit by simply trying to build legitimacy.At present, the Prime Minister's team and others are trying to establish legitimacy by showing that there was a deficit of legitimacy, which is very bad in my opinion; "Similarly, Yilikal said that promises and words of motivation of the Prime Minister should be supported by rules, policies and policies. regulations. "We do not see any law, policy, or procedure on how to change one's words into reality."

"We do not see or hear that these problems will be solved. The PM does not show us his road map on how to deal with the country's multifaceted problems. All he said, it is simply to provide a temporal solution to ease tensions, "said Yilikal.

According to him, tackling the country's multifaceted problems exceeds the capabilities of the EPRDF and, therefore, recommend the establishment of political dialogue forum that includes all political forces. "If not, then the fight could be over," warns Yilikal

On the contrary, for the Professor of Political Science, the question is beyond the establishment of strong institutions.For him, the main bottleneck in solving the country's multifaceted problems at this precise moment of the History is to identify how to deal with the Tiger Liberation Front (TPLF) in the internal politics of the parties

very dangerous, therefore, it is necessary to have a negotiation and an appropriate discussion within the Addressing and sorting issues should be prioritized to address other complex political issues facing the country. "

Many have argued that the restoration of order, confidence in the government and the feeling of optimism about domestic transformation and regional ancestry to meet all these political and social problems complex, Professor Harry Verhoeven, who teaches at the Qatar Foreign Service School at Georgetown University, recommends that the new Ethiopian leader his biggest problem: the internal fractures of the EPRDF, still widely regarded as one of Africa's most fearsome party machines, but torn apart by contradictions and personal rivalries that have grown in recent months.