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The concentration of carbon dioxide emissions in the atmosphere has reached an unprecedented level this month. Exxon fossil fuel giant researchers saw it coming decades ago.
Measurements taken on May 3 at the world's oldest measuring station, the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, recorded "the first day of humanity with more than 415 parts per million [ppm] CO2 in the air, "according to the UN report on climate change Twitter account. As of May 12, levels remained stable at 415ppm.
Never before in the history of mankind has there been so much carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. The last time scientists thought it was perhaps as high, it was 2.5 to 5 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch, when the level from the sea was 25 meters higher than today and that global temperatures were warmer by 2 to 3 degrees Celsius.
Contrary to the time, however, the record carbon dioxide emissions recorded today are the result of human combustion of fossil fuels that release into the atmosphere a harmful pollution that holds back heat. . And Exxon scientists predicted it decades ago.
According to a 1982 internal document from Exxon Research and Engineering Company – obtained by InsideClimate News as part of its 2015 investigation into Exxon's knowledge about the impact of fossil fuels on climate change – the company was modeling the concentration of carbon emissions several years into the future.
According to a chart showing "the growth of atmospheric CO2 and the average rise in global temperature" over time, the company expected that, by 2020, carbon dioxide in the world would increase. atmosphere reaches about 400 to 420 ppm. This month's measurement of 415 ppm is exactly in the expected Exxon curve projected according to its "21st Century Study – High Growth" scenario.
Exxon not only predicted rising emissions, but also understood the magnitude of the consequences.
"Considerable uncertainty also surrounds the possible impact on society of such a warming trend, if any," says the internal document. "At the lower end of the forecast temperature range, there may be some impact on agricultural growth and rainfall patterns, which could be beneficial in some areas and harmful to others."
"At the top of the scale, some scientists suggest that there could be a significant negative impact, including the flooding of some coastal landmasses due to sea level rise. due to the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet, "he continued, stating that this would only take place centuries after temperatures warmed by 3 degrees Celsius.
Despite this knowledge, the company has chosen not to change or adapt its business model. Instead, he chose to invest heavily in misinformation campaigns that encouraged the denial of climate science, failing to reveal the fact that the majority of fossil fuel reserves in the world must remain untapped to avoid change. catastrophic climate.
The world is already experiencing the devastating effects of climate change. As the first line of the US government's national climate assessment states: "The impacts of climate change are already being felt in communities across the country."
With more intense floods, drought, heat waves, forest fires and hurricanes, the world is becoming increasingly aware of what life will be like in a warming world. In 2018, the United States alone has experienced 14 different climate and weather related disasters, each costing more than a billion dollars.
The record carbon emissions recorded this month indicate that the situation will likely continue to worsen. Carbon stays in the atmosphere for a long time, which means it continues to warm the world long after it is emitted. "This is a grim reminder of the perilous path we are taking," said climatologist Michael Mann.
Mann was one of three scientists to publish for the first time what is called the famous "hockey stick" chart in 1999. The graph, illustrating the increase in temperature over time, takes the form of a hockey stick because of the sharp increase following the industrial revolution. Twenty years after the graph was published, CO2 levels were about 366 ppm. Today, he told ThinkProgress by e-mail, they are increasing by about 3 ppm a year.
"If you do the math, we will go through 450 ppm – which will probably block dangerous global warming by more than 2 ° C / 3.5 ° F – in just over a decade," he said. declared. "This means that we must act dramatically now to reduce global carbon emissions (about 5 to 10 percent per year) if we want to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change."
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