Fact check on case trends, death rates, masks and ivermectin

Alaska is at a critical point in the pandemic. Twenty healthcare facilities across the state are now operating to crisis care standards, a reflection of the additional pressure facing hospitals that are grappling with scarce resources and high numbers of COVID-19 patients – and growing prepare for the worst. Alaska’s recent per capita case rate is the highest in the United States and higher than any country in the world.

At the same time, recent statements by public officials paint a very different picture of the pandemic, which warrants further examination.

In Anchorage over the past week, a divided city debated whether to implement a mask warrant, and Mayor Dave Bronson touted debunked medical treatment, pointed to data he said showed that the number of cases in Alaska was actually down and questioned the effectiveness of the masks.

We have verified some of these claims.

The number of cases remains high, but there is a graph of COVID-19 case emergence that appears to show a recent decline. What is happening?

Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson, who opposes a city-wide mask mandate project and COVID-19 mandates in general, recently cited a graphic on the COVID-19 dashboard of the city which he said was showing decline in city and state. His remarks at Wednesday night’s tumultuous Anchorage Assembly meeting came in response to a witness who spoke in favor of the mask ordinance.

Bronson told the witness, “I am looking at the chart of start of cases by date and I see that the seven day moving average for state and municipality has declined significantly since September 13. I’m just curious, in your mind. , what tenure caused those cuts? ”A video of Bronson’s remarks appeared the next day, posted on his Mayor’s Facebook account.

In the graph Bronson was looking at, “date of onset” refers to the day a person’s symptoms first started or, if they are asymptomatic, the day they were tested.

Because the date a person is tested or experiences the first symptoms occurs before the date the state reports that case, the last few weeks of data in the case onset graph is missing information that will be added in the next few. days, Louisa Castrodale, epidemiologist with the state’s health department, explained last week.

“Because the start date is something that is in the past, if you look at the start data curve, you will always see it falling at the end there,” she said. This decline is even more pronounced due to recent delays in data processing.

“In an era of very fast turnaround times with labs, the report date and start date can be very close to each other, but when we know labs struggle to process samples, and sometimes in reporting those results you can really see a difference between that start date and the report date, ”she said.

A better way to measure Alaska’s current surge is to look at week-to-week trends, said state epidemiologist Dr. Joe McLaughlin.

According to this measure, Alaska’s daily cases continue to rise – last week saw a 10% increase in cases from the previous week – and the state’s seven-day per capita case rate is currently the highest in the country. When it comes to Anchorage specifically, the city’s seven-day per capita case rate is also higher than any other state, and there is no evidence in the number of cases of a recent drop.

[Are Alaska’s hospitals short-staffed over COVID-19 vaccination mandates? Not yet.]

Does Alaska Really Have One of the Lowest COVID-19 Death Rates in the Country?

Basically, it depends: are you looking at the pandemic as a whole, or are you looking at how Alaska is doing more recently?

Based on data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Alaska continues to have one of the lowest death rates in the country since the start of the pandemic, along with Oregon, Maine, Vermont and Hawaii. Alaska has recorded an average of 76 deaths per 100,000 people since January 2020, making it the fourth lowest death rate in the country for that period.

It’s a statistic often touted by Alaska Governor Mike Dunleavy and Mayor Bronson, though other data points – like hospital ICU capacity and current case rates – continue to alert health officials.

However, looking only last week, Alaska had the highest death rate in the country on Friday, with 11.4 deaths per 100,000 people.

It’s important to consider how these death rates are calculated, according to state epidemiologist Dr. Joe McLaughlin. The CDC includes all of the deaths that were added to the state’s COVID-19 dashboard, which last week included many deaths that occurred earlier in the year. In fact, there have been only 20 in the past seven days, rather than the 80 deaths that pushed Alaska to the nation’s highest death rate last Friday.

So, we can probably expect Alaska’s national position for the seven-day death rate to fluctuate over the next few days. Some might misinterpret the falling death rate as an example of the state taking the virus’ turn, but that’s not exactly the case, said Rosa Avila, who works with COVID-19 data at the Department of state health. On the contrary, it’s just that the CDC no longer included those extra older deaths in the seven-day death rate.

The bottom line, McLaughlin said, is that cases are skyrocketing right now.

“And we know that whenever we see a spike in cases, deaths will follow,” he said.

This is what has happened statewide as the number of cases has increased since the summer. In June, six Alaskan residents died with COVID-19, while there were 21 who died in July, 75 in August and 71 so far reported in September – and that tally could change as that health officials who follow the virus receive more information about recent deaths.

[‘Watching themselves die’: Fairbanks nurse describes panic and ‘air hunger’ among COVID patients in video encouraging vaccination]

Do the masks work?

In a recent editorial opposing Anchorage’s proposed mask warrant, Mayor Bronson wrote: “Certainly, there are many studies supporting the use of masks, but… there are also several studies that have found masking and warrants for masks. largely ineffective mask. This is why even the World Health Organization has recognized that the science on masking is inconsistent and inconclusive. “

It refers to the WHO guidelines of December 2020 which advised the wearing of masks as part of a more comprehensive strategy to limit the spread of the virus. WHO said at the time: “At present, there is only limited and inconsistent scientific evidence to support the effectiveness of masking healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including SARS-CoV-2. “

Bronson also cited a May 2020 article in a CDC journal that included research from 2018 and earlier, and found “limited” evidence for the effectiveness of surgical masks in preventing transmission of the influenza virus.

Bronson was right that some of these early masking studies were confusing and inclusive at times. But the science behind the masking has evolved from the studies he referred to.

The vast majority of research now supports the theory that masks work – that they significantly protect both the wearer and those with whom they come in contact.

More than 10 studies cited by the CDC have since confirmed the benefits of universal masking for preventing spread in the community – including an analysis conducted last spring at 12 hospitals in Massachusetts employing more than 75,000 healthcare workers, a German study published in June 2020 and an Arizona study that tracked transmission rates before and after mask warrants were widely applied, among others.

“Each scan has shown that, following guidance from organizational and political leaders for universal masking, new infections have declined dramatically,” the CDC said.

In Alaska, public health officials and medical providers have almost universally recommended wearing masks as one of the most effective, easiest, and cheapest ways to slow community transmission, protect the ability hospital and prevent deaths.

Should Ivermectin be used to treat COVID-19?

Ivermectin for livestock was in high demand at some Alaskan food stores after gaining traction on social media as a purported treatment for COVID-19. The FDA has approved ivermectin in humans and animals for certain parasitic worms and for head lice and skin conditions – but the FDA has not approved its use in the treatment or prevention of COVID-19 in ‘man. The agency strongly urged people not to use it to treat COVID-19, especially as many were turning to formulations intended for animals, not humans.

Kenai Peninsula Borough Mayor Charlie Pierce, who has no training in health or medicine, has publicly supported the use of the treatment. Speaking at a Rotary Club meeting in Anchorage last week, Bronson said the treatment worked very well.

“It is an approved drug and it is very effective,” he said. “It’s not a pill for horses.”

Merck, the pharmaceutical company that makes ivermectin, explicitly said in February that researchers had found no scientific basis for a potential therapeutic effect against COVID-19 from preclinical studies and no significant evidence of clinical activity or clinical efficacy in patients with COVID-19. The company also cited “a worrying lack of safety data” in most studies.

Taking too much ivermectin can cause nausea, diarrhea, low blood pressure, itching and hives, dizziness, balance problems, seizures and even death, according to the Oregon Poison Center. . Especially dangerous is the ingestion of ivermectin formulations designed for animals because veterinary drugs are often more concentrated and many of their ingredients are not considered safe for human use.

Alaskan Chief Medical Officer Dr Anne Zink said last week that there was no proven benefit from taking ivermectin. Vaccination is the best way to fight the virus, and treatment with monoclonal antibodies can help those who get it stay out of hospital, she said.

[Touted by some as a cure, monoclonal antibody demand is high in Alaska’s least-vaccinated places — but it’s no replacement for a vaccine]