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Appearing on Hello america On Thursday, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, Dr Anthony Fauci, said the United States faces a cycle of new variants capable of bypassing current vaccines if the country does not contain the disease. community spread of the Delta variant.
“It will happen, George, if we don’t get good control over the spread in the community, which is why my colleagues and I keep repeating that it is very important to get so many vaccinated. people as possible. »Fauci told GMA anchor George Stephanopoulos. Fauci then spoke to Americans hesitant about vaccines.
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“People who say, ‘I don’t want to get the vaccine because it’s me and I’m going to worry about myself, I’m not impacting anyone else’, it just isn’t not, ”he said. In fact, Fauci warned that these people could make matters worse for everyone by providing a vulnerable population in which new mutations can occur.
“And when you give it ample opportunity to mutate, sooner or later you may get another variant, and it’s possible that that variant is in some ways worse than the already very difficult variant we’re dealing with now, which is a major problem reason why you want to completely suppress the circulation of the virus in the community, ”observed Fauci.
Nationally, there are 93 million eligible Americans who have not been vaccinated, according to Fauci. This number does not include around 48 million children under the age of 12 who are currently not eligible for vaccination and are therefore also vulnerable.
In an interview with McClatchy on Wednesday, Fauci warned the country could be “in trouble” and fall unless a large chunk of those unvaccinated Americans get beaten.
Indeed, in the summer of 2020, infectious disease experts warned that if the country experienced a fall surge, it would be much larger than the spring 2020 surge, as it would start from a higher baseline due to of the plateau on which the spring thrust ended.
“And so when you look at the acceleration curve of the 7-day averages of the cases per day, it goes up very steeply,” he said. This statement is clearly shown in the graph of the number of cases during the pandemic. The most recent rise is more vertical than the increases in April 2020 or July 2020. And that would leave the country in fall 2021 at a much higher plateau than it experienced in fall 2020. See the table below.
CDC
The highest number of cases recorded in a single day was 295,880 on January 7. As of June 14, reported cases had dropped to 8,069. As of Thursday, according to the CDC, the number of daily cases had risen again, reaching 103,445 in the United States. The 7-day daily average of cases increased 43% over the past week. The 7-day daily average of hospital admissions nationwide has increased by 41% over the same period, according to CDC director Dr Rachel Walensky during the response team briefing Covid-19 from the White House Thursday.
“Remember, just a few months ago we had around 10,000 cases a day,” Fauci said. “I think you’re probably going to end up with between 100,000 and 200,000 cases.”
“If we don’t crush the epidemic to the point of vaccinating the overwhelming proportion of the population, then what will happen is that the virus will continue to smolder from fall through winter, giving it ample the chance to get a variant which, quite frankly, we’re very fortunate that the vaccines we have now work very well against variants – especially serious illnesses, ”Fauci told McClatchy. “We are very fortunate that this is the case. There could be a variant that persists that could rule Delta out.
“If another comes along who has an equally high transmission capacity but is also much more serious, then we could really be in trouble,” he warned. And it’s not just those who choose not to be vaccinated who would be in trouble.
Of the 58,000 current Covid hospitalizations in the United States, those aged 18 to 49 represent 41%, according to CDC data. This is a far cry from the trend towards hospitalization that the country observed towards the elderly at the start of the pandemic. We have the Delta variant – and the sluggishness of the vaccinations – to blame for it.
In addition, pediatric hospitalizations are 3.5 times higher than they were a month ago. The American Academy of Pediatrics reported that cases of children under 17 nearly doubled in the last two weeks of July, from 39,000 per week to 72,000. Los Angeles reported the first death on Tuesday. of a child under 12 for months. This is because many children start to learn in person again within the next two weeks.
Data published overseas shows that the Delta variant makes children sicker than previous variants. Fauci warned Thursday that the data is not strong enough to be conclusive.
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