Fauci’s timeline for when he thinks America will beat COVID

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The US COVID-19 epidemic “will get worse before it gets better” and the country will not see “dramatic changes” until the third quarter of next year, Dr Anthony Fauci said. Newsweek.

Talk to Newsweek, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and a member of the White House COVID-19 task force said: “I think the declines are going to start as we move into April and that the vaccinated population.

“Then as you get into May, June and July, towards the end of the second quarter of 2021, I think you’re going to start to see some dramatic changes at the start of the third quarter.

Noting that the country “never came out of the first wave” of the COVID-19 outbreak, Fauci explained: “I don’t even speak in waves anymore. [when describing the outbreak]. I see it more as a high bottom with different surges superimposed, as opposed to a wave that comes and goes. “

Is there any hope that this virus is under control? “Oh, absolutely, yes. But it’s going to get worse before it gets better because we have these flare-ups now that won’t be affected by the vaccine for at least a few months.

“We’re not going to see this [a dramatic decline] for the next two months, because the next few months will reflect what is happening and what happened a few weeks ago [in terms of rising cases].

“If people get vaccinated, we could go a long way in drastically reducing [in cases] as we move into the second and third quarters of 2021. Then I think you’ll start to see a dramatic decrease in cases. “

As COVID-19 hospitalizations skyrocket across the country, Fauci said Newsweek “It is quite conceivable that January will be the worst” stage of the epidemic.

“I think January is going to be terrible, because you’re going to have the Thanksgiving wave super imposed on the Christmas wave.”

The daily number of cases in the country is expected to peak on January 20, if “vaccine distribution is increased over 90 days and” governments do not reimpose warrants if cases increase, “according to the latest projection from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. (IHME).

The daily tally of cases could be around 448,000 on Jan. 20, if “vaccine distribution is increased for 45 days,” according to the IHME.

More than 100,600 COVID-19 patients were reportedly hospitalized on Thursday, according to data compiled by AtlanticCOVID Tracking Project.

According to forecasts received by the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) from 12 modeling groups, “As of December 28, forecasts estimate 2,300 to 23,000 new hospitalizations with COVID-19 per day.

“Four national forecasts project a likely increase in the number of new hospitalizations per day over the next four weeks, one forecast predicts a likely decline and four forecasts are uncertain about the trend or predict stable numbers.

“State-level forecasts also show a high degree of variability, which results from several factors. Hospitalization forecasts use different sources of data for COVID-19 cases or deaths, with different limits, and make different assumptions about social distancing, ”said a CDC report released Wednesday.