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It is a meeting that should not last more than two hours, but with a strong symbolic dimension. Around the table, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Russian Vladimir Putin, French Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The goal of this summit in Istanbul? Consolidate the fragile truce at Idleb and move towards a political transition.
Turkey and Russia form with Iran a trio unavoidable on the ground where they allowed a relative silence of the arms thanks to the so-called process of Astana. France and Germany are part of the "small group" on Syria, which has five other countries, including the United States. "The main goal of this summit is to study what new formulas can be found to provide a political solution" to this complex conflict that has made more than 360,000 deaths since 2011, said Friday the spokesman Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Ibrahim Kalin.
On this point, the formation under the auspices of the UN of a Constitutional Committee supposed to elaborate a new fundamental law promises to be one of the main challenges because of the blocking of the regime. United Nations envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, who had unsuccessful talks in Damascus this week and lamented Friday the paralysis of the UN plan, will also be present at the Istanbul summit.
The other major issue will be the ceasefire in the rebel province of Idleb (north-west) which was negotiated in extremis last month by Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Vladimir Putin while an badault of the regime, synonymous with humanitarian catastrophe, seemed imminent. The agreement between Moscow, the regime's ally, and Ankara, the rebels' godfather, included the establishment of a "demilitarized zone" 15 to 20 kilometers wide to separate the insurgent Idleb territories from the government regions.
Idleb's powder magazine
But as the summit approached, the truce seemed more and more fragile: several skirmishes took place in recent days and seven civilians were killed Friday by the regime's bombing in Idleb, the highest toll since the entry in force of the Russian-Turkish Agreement. France "wishes that the prolongation of the cease-fire to Idleb and that the access of humanitarian convoys be guaranteed," says the Elysee.
If no major announcement should come at the end of the summit – the Elysee says to have "modest expectations" and the Kremlin calls to be "realistic" – this meeting in new format will give the opportunity to the four leaders to look for common ground. "There are different approaches. But, basically, everyone naturally wants to reach a political settlement in Syria, "said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Friday. "Differences in means and tactics may exist. It is precisely to raise these issues and harmonize the positions "that this summit is organized, he added.
Two key players in the conflict in Syria, Iran and the United States, who are at loggerheads, will be absent on Saturday. Emmanuel Macron met Thursday with US President Donald Trump to give their positions.
Read also "As long as Russians and Iranians are in Syria, Americans will stay"
" Balance of power "
If the initiatives of the Russia-Turkey-Iran group have largely overshadowed the efforts of Westerners and the United Nations on the political transition, Ankara could try to take advantage of the presence of the two European heavyweights around the table. By joining forces with France and Germany, which share its position vis-à-vis the Syrian regime, "Erdogan is strengthening its weight in the negotiations with Putin and changes the balance of power in his favor, "says Jana Jabbour, a specialist in Turkey.
This four-fold format also gives the Turkish president the opportunity to "try to normalize relations with Europe", strained since 2016, and show that he can be "a good partner of Westerners", explains Jana Jabbour at France Media Agency. The summit comes as the region is shaken by the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in his country's consulate in Istanbul. According to the Turkish press, Recep Tayyip Erdogan will discuss the matter with his guests in bilateral talks on the sidelines of the summit.
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