Donald Trump's "maximum pressure" strategy struggles to work with Tehran

After the threats, the hand extended. Eight days after inflicting a vehement tweet on Iranian President Hbadan Rohani, Donald Trump proposed to meet him "without preconditions" while the United States withdrew in May from the agreement on Iran's nuclear power. " I meet everyone. If they want me to meet them, I meet them. When they want " said Monday, July 30 the tenant of the White House on the sidelines of a meeting with the head of the Italian Council Giuseppe Conte. That would be "good for us, good for them, good for the world."

This strategy is explicitly in line with the one with North Korea – Mr. Trump's verbal threats during summer 2017, military bidding by Kim Jong-un, then spectacular meeting of the two leaders in Singapore in June 2018. "Never threaten, never again the United States or you will suffer consequences of which few have had to suffer in history, wrote Mr. Trump on Twitter on July 23, replying to a threat from Mr. Rohani: "Do not play with the tail of the lion, or you will regret it.

To Iranian President Rouhani: NEVER, EVER THREATEN THE UNITED STATES AGAIN OR YOU WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKE … https://t.co/xUdD66vfBW

– realDonaldTrump (@Donald J. Trump)
   

But the comparison stops there: the Iranians do not want to hear about such a meeting. "With today's America and politics [qu’ils mènent] it is absolutely impossible to have a dialogue and commitment. And the United States has shown that it is absolutely unreliable " Bahram Qbademi, spokesman for the Foreign Ministry Monday evening, said

The Americans denounced the Vienna Agreement in May on Iran's nuclear energy that had been negotiated for years under the Obama administration while Iran, according to experts, was sticking to that deal; they imposed sanctions on Tehran and demand from their partners that they no longer buy Iranian crude by November 4. Therefore, "I think that the conditions for such an appointment are not met" continued Mr. Qbademi.

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"Iran is not North Korea"

These proposals are made while Donald Trump and part of the establishment in Washington are convinced that the strategy of the president of the United States – applied vis-à-vis Pyongyang, but also Europe and South Korea on a commercial level – works. The release of the agreement and the application of sanctions against Tehran have " a major impact on Iran. This has substantially weakened Iran " estimated July 17 Mr. Trump. "Iran is not the same country as it was five months ago, I can tell you. They do not look so much towards the Mediterranean or the whole Middle East. They have big problems, they can solve, probably more easily if they discuss with us "

Economic sanctions would march on this country of 80 million inhabitants: the rial, the Iranian motto , has devalued by half this year. The lack of currency led, according to the Financial Times the Iranians to rush on the gold, the cars and the real estate to protect their savings while Mr. Rohani sacked at the end of July the governor of the central bank for its mismanagement of the crisis. European companies, despite their protests, find themselves forced to choose between trading with Tehran or with the United States: the choice is quickly made.

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                Iranian economy destabilized by the return of US sanctions
    

This strategy of the "maximum pressure" to quote an expression of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, was it conducted far enough to reach out? The Iranian rebuff is doubtful. In a long article published by Slate a few days ago, essayist journalist Fred Kaplan reminded Mr. Trump that "Iran is not North Korea" and that the game will not be so easy.

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Rohani lack of political power

First, unlike Mr. Kim, who has all the power to turn around at home, Mr. Rohani, promoter of the nuclear agreement, is under the pressure of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the army and the guards of the revolution, much harder than him. He does not have the political strength to engage in a dramatic rapprochement with Washington. Mike Pompeo acknowledged it, believing that finding a moderate in the diet was as difficult as seeing a unicorn. Worse, in case of a change of regime, for example by the diplomatic adviser John Bolton, no "pro-Western" opposition is ready to take power.

Then, the rapprochement between North Korea and Washington had a mediator, South Korea, and a sponsor, China. Nothing so obvious with Tehran: Europeans were humiliated by Trump's unilateral exit from the deal. It remains to be seen whether the Russian leader Vladimir Putin can have an influence, the tenant of the White House claiming to have spoken about the subject with the strong man of the Kremlin.

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                Europeans reject US demand to isolate Iran
    

By May 21, Mike Pompeo had presented twelve major demands to the Iranian power (end of any nuclear enrichment, withdrawal of its militia from Syria, end of support for Hamas and Hezbollah …) for a new agreement . "We are lucid about the nature of this regime, but our eyes are open on what is possible ," said Secretary of State. "If anyone, especially the Iranian leadership, doubts the sincerity or the vision of the president, let him look at our diplomacy with North Korea.

This is the last question: whether the summit with North Korea has borne fruit: some believe that Mr. Kim was granted by the US president are nuclear power status, without binding commitment. Trump camp believes that the threat has decreased substantially. On Iran, we are at best only at the beginning.