Fires in Sweden and Greece: the heat waves will soon be commonplace in Europe?

While Europe is experiencing a heat wave and unprecedented fires this summer, many climate scientists warn of the sustainability of extreme events caused by global warming.

Europe suffocates and this is not near stop, warn several experts in climatology. Up to 32 ° C surveyed in the Arctic Circle on 17 July 2018 and nearly 25 000 hectares of forest gone up in smoke in Scandinavia with record temperatures of up to 35 ° C in Sweden. A dramatic situation in Greece, where more than 70 people died on July 24 in unprecedented fires caused by drought and heat. The exceptional could become commonplace, say several researchers who attribute these extreme phenomena to global warming.

While since 2016, temperatures have reached levels never recorded on Earth, Pierre Radanne, specialist in energy and ecological questions interviewed by France 24, believes that " i we are doing nothing for climate change, we We expect a warming of 6 ° C in the decades to come ". "The commitments of the Paris Agreement [] to limit the average warming to less than 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era] are insufficient, "warns the researcher, active in international climate negotiations. A concern shared by climatologist Jean Jouzel. "What is happening, we were thinking about it about thirty years ago.What we say is not really taken seriously when we look at how the fight against global warming on a global scale organizes ", he estimates on France info.

The expert is particularly worried about a lack of investment by the United States. United States, which have withdrawn from the Paris Agreement, or from Russia, which has not yet ratified it. "I There is a risk of a ripple effect," he regrets.

>> To read: Grieving, Greece continues to fight against flames

Heatwaves that confirm long-term forecasts

The recent heat episodes in Sweden and Greece "are consistent with long-term trends caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases greenhouse gas, "reports the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which forecasts above normal temperatures until early August, from Ireland to the Baltic countries, via Scandinavia.

>> Read: "In pictures: fierce fires engulf Sweden to Lapland"

But this extraordinary heat wave does not stop at the borders of Europe. In Japan, temperatures exceeded 35 ° C in places last week, making 80 deaths since mid-July. Siberia was also affected, as was the United States, with temperatures exceeding 40 ° C in Los Angeles early July. "Generally, there are heat waves on one part of the planet (…), but there, the entire northern hemisphere is hot, it's amazing," notes Anders Levermann, climatologist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate impact research (PIK).

A posteriori, research can be conducted to estimate whether an event might not have occurred without climate change. For example, last December, for the first time, a study published in the Bulletin of the American meteorological society concluded that global warming was the only cause of the global heat record for 2016 and an extreme heat wave in Asia.

Peaks at 55 ° C in France from 2050

] "We must accept that because of climate change, the bad years on the fire front are likely to multiply, with devastating and difficult to control fires that increase because of the badtail heat and drought mixed," warns Thomas Curt of the National Institute for Research in Science and Technology for the Environment and Agriculture (Irstea), on France Inter. "Fire prevention is the key element to reduce the impact," said the researcher, who also encourages the fight against global warming.

To give an order of idea, in the event of uncontrolled global warming, one could see from 2050 temperatures approaching 55 [19659004] ° C in France, according to Jean Jouzel. "Each year, we will have record temperatures that will be beaten, once in Russia, the other time in France or Japan," said the French climatologist. Heatwaves like the one of 2003, which had made 70 dead 000 dead in Europe, "may become the norm after 2050 or 2060", he continues.

According to a study published in 2017 in Nature Climate Change, while respecting the commitments of Paris, half of the world's population will be exposed to deadly heat waves from here 2100, against 30 % today

With AFP

            

First published: 25/07/2018