In Aix-en-Provence, Europe is called to unite in the face of global risks

"The question is not to know There will or will not be a trade war. The trade war has already begun. The statement made Sunday, July 8 by Bruno Le Maire summarized the state of mind of the participants in the eighteenth edition of the Economic Meeting of Aix-en-Provence, organized from July 6 to 8. In the image of the Minister of Economy, politicians, economists and bosses invited to floor on "metamorphoses of the world" shared the same concern. That of seeing the world born at the end of the second world war, based on the multilateral collaboration between the States, to fall to dust.

Guilty: the aggressive politics of the United States of Donald Trump, which imposed, Friday, July 6 , customs duties on Chinese goods worth an estimated 34 billion euros. In the aftermath, Beijing immediately responded by announcing retaliation measures of an equivalent amount. Washington also threatens to impose tariffs on vehicles badembled in the European Union, after imposing tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on the EU, Canada and Mexico. aluminum. " If there were to be a tariff increase on other economic sectors, our reaction would have to be united, strong, to make clear that Europe is also a sovereign economic power", warned The Mayor, in front of the badembled participants, as every year, under the Aix sun.

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But the risks are far from being reduced to the thundering American president. "Even before Donald Trump was elected, multilateralism was already in bad shape," recalls the economist Jean Pisani-Ferry, who inspired Emmanuel Macron's economic program. And this, by the rise of populism, thriving on rising inequality and desperation of those fearing to be the losers of globalization. Added to this is the migratory challenge that Europe faces, climate change and the digital revolution, with uncertain effects on employment. "The world that is coming is not only dangerous on the questioning of the multilateralism and the economic wars", underlined, Saturday, July 7, the prime minister Edouard Philippe, in front of a packed amphitheater.

Only here: if the United States "repudiates the collective rules they themselves forged in the post-war period" as summarized by Jean Pisani-Ferry, who will replace them in their leadership mission and policeman of the world? In the matter, the European Union "has a playing card", estimated Christine Lagarde, the director general of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Saturday.

Numerous topics of contention

The Circle of Economists, the think tank that organizes the meetings, has made several proposals in this direction. He calls on Europe to launch a major "multilateral alliance". "It would not be a new institution, but a political alliance of countries willing and willing to maintain dialogue, to weigh against the United States", summarizes Jean-Hervé Lorenzi , president of the Circle

Within such an initiative, China could be a major ally. Provided, however, that Europeans strive to tighten their ranks. And to solve their weaknesses. "Today, Europe is no longer a partner for anyone, it has become a prey", badaulted the economist Jacques Attali, resolutely pessimistic. "She must overcome her own divisions" added Benoît Cœuré, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB). But the issues of contention are numerous: reception of refugees, degree of solidarity between members, or even application of the rule of law in Poland or Hungary … " Europe must be rebuilt around its fundamental values suggests the Circle of Economists, such as democracy, justice, dialogue. The fact that the states that no longer share them leave the club.

But it will also strengthen the institutions of the monetary union and here too, proposals have rocket. Most are already known. In the example of the introduction of a common budget, dear to President Emmanuel Macron, the completion of the banking union and tax harmonization, to put an end to unfair competition between states. "When united, the Europeans have a real voice in the chapter" Christine Lagarde believes, convinced that the EU can be "a source of inspiration for many other countries" . In view of the fragility of the Franco-German couple and the divisions faced by German Chancellor Angela Merkel within her own camp, the challenge seems immense.

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