In Syria, who controls what, 7 years after the beginning of the war?

INTERNATIONAL – Their objectives and the means to achieve this are different. But several central actors of the war in Syria meet this Saturday, October 27 in Turkey to take stock of the situation, seven years after the beginning of the conflict. For the first time, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel will sit at the same table as Vladimir Putin and Recep Erdogan. And even if he misses Donald Trump (President of the Republic and he exchanged Thursday by phone), this appointment is an important event.

Two major questions will occupy the four leaders: "Study what new formulas can be found to provide a political solution," said the Turkish presidency that organizes the summit but also find a way out of what is happening in the rebel province of Idlib, in the north-west of the country.

Idlib, the last rebel pocket

While Bashar al-Assad's regime was planning an offensive, Turkey and Russia negotiated a fragile ceasefire. This is essential to avoid a major humanitarian disaster. It is indeed in this province under the control of jihadists, that tens of thousands of rebels and civilians have taken refuge after their bastions were taken back by the army of Damascus. The UN estimates that a military attack could make 800,000 displaced on the 3 million inhabitants.

One of Emmanuel Macron's objectives is to achieve a lasting cease-fire in this province, which is the last pocket that still resists in Damascus. The Elysee also wants a guarantee that access to humanitarian convoys is guaranteed in this sector where the Syrian state is accused of using chemical weapons several times.

Since 2013, as shown in the little animation below, the regime gradually regained control over the entire territory. In addition to this pocket in purple on the map, it remains a last region at the hand of the Islamic State (in gray on the map at the end of the article) which was almost destroyed in Syria.

The HuffPost

The political process seems blocked

Once this status quo is established, it will remain the most delicate issue of the country's political future. France does not imagine it with Bashar al-Assad, who suppresses rebellion in blood and with the support of chemical weapons, but Western efforts have been overshadowed by the recent initiatives of the Russia-Turkey-Iran trio.

For several months, the UN has been working on the formation of a group of 150 people to draft a new constitution: 50 chosen by the regime, 50 by the opposition and 50 by the international community. The names proposed by the United Nations for this last component have just been rejected by Damascus, causing a blockage of the process and anger of Westerners.

While the UN envoy for Syria should leave his post in a few weeks, he hopes to be able to meet for the last time in Geneva the main actors of the peace process signed in 2017 in Astana (he defined four zones of cease – including Idlib): Russia and Iran supporting Damascus as well as Turkey, rebel support.

AFP

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