"Merkel and Seehofer just saved the face"

The German government agreed on its migration policy and managed to save its coalition. For the time being.
  

The agreement, obtained in extremis, between Merkel and his Minister of the Interior prevented the explosion of their government and the opening of a major crisis for Berlin. In the future, migrants entering the EU from a country other than Germany will be placed in "transit centers" before being returned to this country of entry. But the implementation promises to be complicated. And this compromise, fragile, could finally be a respite for the Chancellor. Explanations from Hans Stark, researcher at the French Institute of International Relations and professor at the Sorbonne.

Barely signed, the agreement on migrants, concluded between Angela Merkel and the Bavarian party CSU, is already criticized. Why ?

This agreement allows the Chancellor and her Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer to save face. On the one hand, Angela Merkel can argue that she has held up on one crucial point: we can not unilaterally settle the issue of "secondary movements" – those migrants who arrive in Germany, but who are registered in a another country of the European Union. On the other hand, Horst Seehofer can congratulate himself on having found a compromise by securing the creation of "transit centers" near the Austrian border. Migrants who end up in these camps will be returned to the countries of entry on the basis of bilateral agreements signed with Germany, or, if they do not exist, returned to Austria. But how can you imagine that Vienna, which advocates a very tough migration policy, accepts this decision?

Already this morning, Vienna has indicated "to be ready to take measures" to protect its borders. What does this mean?

Austria will close its borders to the south, especially those with Slovenia and Italy, which may have a domino effect in other European countries and, above all, to create a gridlock in the Balkans – which Angela Merkel wanted to avoid. In fact, we put the cart before the horse. First of all, it would have been necessary to negotiate the bilateral agreements and then to make arrangements at the national level.

Some countries will never agree to sign – Hungary, of course, but also the southern countries (Italy, Greece), which are already experiencing strong migratory pressure …

These bilateral agreements are going to to be very difficult to implement. If the northern countries do not want to hear about allocation quotas, the European Union will have to grant the southern countries, and, first and foremost, Italy and Greece, substantial financial and logistical support. It is inconceivable to let these countries alone manage this problem, otherwise the EU is likely to burst.

This agreement will he put an end to the German governance crisis?

The political situation remains very fragile. Horst Seehofer does not recognize the authority of Angela Merkel. On the contrary, it does not trust its Minister of the Interior, which is very serious, in a context as tense in terms of immigration, internal security and terrorism. Yet they are doomed to hear each other! CSU and the CDU have no choice but to maintain this coalition. What would happen if this parliamentary group, which has been securing the political stability of the country for 70 years, exploded? The CSU and the CDU would dispute the same voters, they would each find themselves with 15% of voting intentions, next to the AfD, which weighs about 14%. So there would be three right-wing parties in Germany. To avoid this nightmarish scenario, CSU and CDU are committed to compromise. But an agreement that does not rest on a unity of view, but on a necessity, remains unstable …

We talk a lot about the CDU and the CSU, but not about the SPD, which is nevertheless part of the coalition, and still has not agreed on the new migratory measures …

Yes, we almost forget the SPD, so much it has become inaudible! Since the beginning of this crisis, the German Social Democratic Party has always refused to create transit centers. It is likely that it bends the backbone and endorses the agreement. But at what cost ? Its voters do not support the hardening of the migration policy, they are dissatisfied. Polls show it: the SPD is credited with only 17-18% of voting intentions, against 20% last September. He will continue his descent into hell …

One can thus expect new political crises …

We are not immune to new developments. Already, because Seehofer is unpredictable. Secondly, because a terrorist act in Germany, or a new stabbing by a migrant, is unfortunately not excluded this summer. It could harden the UHC position on migration policy and lead to an escalation of the AfD. Angela Merkel is not out of the woods. His constituents also criticize him for having led a policy of the left (migrants, nuclear output, marriage for all). Some of them have turned to the AfD. All this maintains an atmosphere of end of reign.