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Munich (Germany) – Angela Merkel and the right wing of her government coalition meet on Monday for an ultimate attempt to resolve a conflict over migrants that threatens to bring down the German government.
In the center of the standoff: the Chancellor's migration policy, considered too lax by the very conservative Bavarian party CSU, member of the government coalition set up in March after months of difficult negotiations.
The president of this formation and German Minister of the Interior, Horst Seehofer, who leads the sling, offered Sunday to resign in the face of deadlock, during a meeting of the CSU that lasted a dozen years. hours in Munich.
– 'Last chance' –
Several of his relatives have convinced him not to implement his plan immediately, according to participants. Horst Seehofer therefore intends to meet in the course of the day of Monday the Chancellor for an attempt " last chance " to forge a compromise.
The dispute concerns the treatment of migrants arriving in Germany but already registered in other EU countries.
The minister wants to push back to the border, which refuses Angela Merkel not to create " effect domino " in Europe.
Before the executives of his movement, Mr. Seehofer spoke of three scenarios.
He indicated that he could either give in to the Chancellor and return to the ranks, or override the objections of Angela Merkel and impose on her own the refoulements at the borders – which would, however, result in her dismissal and bursting of the coalition government – or finally resign.
And he added, according to participants, that his choice fell on the latter option.
If he were to confirm his departure on Monday, the consequences for the future of the German government would be potentially serious.
The question would then be whether the minister's party also leaves the coalition. In such a case, the Chancellor would be deprived of a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, probably with the key to early elections.
The Bavarian party could also be content to replace Mr Seehofer, whose relations with Angela Merkel had become execrable, by a personality better able to negotiate a migratory compromise with the Chancellor.
– Merkel remains firm –
It will not be easy, however, Monday to find a middle ground between the two long-time allies but today largely enemies.
Angela Merkel remains inflexible indeed. And she got Sunday night in Berlin almost unanimous support of the governing bodies of her party CDU.
The latter rejected in a motion any unilateral " unilateral " decision to repress migrants, such as the one sought by Mr. Seehofer.
This latest conflict within the German Conservative camp on migrants broke out in mid-June when the Chancellor blocked her minister's draft on migrant refoulement.
But it is in fact almost permanent since the controversial decision taken in 2015 by Angela Merkel to open the borders of her country to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers.
For three years, the Bavarian CSU party has been denouncing this choice and weighing in order to obtain more firm asylum. Her offensive seems to be aimed above all at Angela Merkel herself, to whom the far right wing of the conservative camp is criticizing a too centrist policy.
The CSU party is also spurred by the prospect of crucial regional elections in October in Bavaria, where the CSU may lose its absolute majority in the face of the push of the far-right anti-migrants.
The Minister of the Interior had set an ultimatum in early July to Angela Merkel, threatening to impose its pushbacks to the borders for lack of measures " equivalent " at the European level.
Angela Merkel thought she could soften this rebel party thanks to the measures taken at the last European summit to reduce migratory flows. But Horst Seehofer called them Sunday " insufficient ".
Whatever the outcome of the government crisis, Angela Merkel will necessarily come out a little more weakened politically.
After almost 13 years of power, it is now openly contested in Germany on its migration policy and often criticized abroad, especially in Eastern Europe and Donald Trump.
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