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Brazil votes this Sunday for a presidential election that can tip the first power of Latin America under a far-right regime if the favorite, Jair Bolsonaro, prevails over his leftist opponent Fernando Haddad. After the October 7 poll, which saw Bolsonaro grapple with an election in the first round (46% of the vote) – while he had long been underestimated – 147 million voters returned to the polls .
The tough campaign between the two rounds was fueled by hate speech but no debate. The last two polls published Saturday evening credit Jair Bolsonaro of the Social Liberal Party (PSL), 54 and 55% of the voting intentions and Fernando Haddad, of the Workers Party (PT) of the former President Lula, 46 or 45%.
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Thus, the gap between the two contenders for the succession of conservative Michel Temer rose from 18 points in mid-October to 8 to 10% on the eve of the poll.
The left keeps hope
The rise of Fernando Haddad gave hope to the left, while doubt crept into a camp so far conquering Bolsonaro.
"I still think that Bolsonaro is a favorite," says Gaspard Estrada, Latin America specialist at Sciences Po, but "in the electoral history of Brazil it is not at all excluded that there are strong movements in the last 24 hours.
In a country plagued by record violence, economic sluggishness, rampant corruption and an acute crisis of confidence in the political clbad, Jair Bolsonaro, despite an insignificant MP career for 27 years, has managed to establish himself as "the tough man Brazil needs. "
The 63-year-old populist has proposed simple, even radical, remedies: arming the population so that "good people" can defend themselves, give a license to kill the police in operation or turn around the eighth world economy with piloted privatizations by Paulo Guedes, an ultraliberal Chicago boy.
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This Catholic defender of the traditional family, who has received crucial support from the powerful evangelical churches, and wants a third of his government to be made up of generals, has outraged a large number of blacks, women and members by his outrageous statements. of the LGBT community.
At the end of the campaign, this "patriot" tried to rebadure by pledging to respect laws and Constitution. But a week ago, the reserve captain delivered a disturbing diatribe, promising "exile or prison" to his opponents, and Haddad and incarcerated ex-president Lula to "rot in prison."
Brazil protected by its institutions?
Alberto Goldman, former center-right governor of Sao Paulo, believes that the institutions would be strong enough to prevent any drift if Bolsonaro came to power, while 50% of Brazilians mention a risk of return of the military dictatorship (1964-1985) .
"But I'm not ready to pay for the proof," added Alberto Goldman, announcing that he was going to vote for Haddad. For Marcio Coimbra of Mackenzie Presbyterian University, Brazil has safeguards with "a strong prosecution, a strong Supreme Court and a functioning Congress".
Bolsonaro, who is in the process of depriving the Workers' Party (PT) of a fifth consecutive victory in a presidential election, has capitalized on the frustration of Brazilians by playing on the "all rotten" register and a virulent anti -pétiste.
Having come close to death after a knife attack on September 6 which strengthened his aura (his followers call him "The Myth") he then led his entire campaign on social networks and refused the six scheduled debates with Haddad, for "medical" and "strategic" reasons.
The election result, expected around 23:00 GMT (midnight in France) should throw hundreds of thousands of Brazilians from both sides in the streets.
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