record of anticipated votes before D-Day, November 6

This is one of the major issues of every US election: the participation rate. In the mid-term elections of 2014, it was 36.7%, the lowest since 1942. In comparison, the turnout in the 2016 presidential election was close to 60%, reports the United States Elections Project, led by the University of Florida, which provides statistics and information on the electoral system of the United States.

But this year, the mid-term elections, held on November 6, are similar to a referendum for or against President Donald Trump: 37% say their vote will be "against" the president and 23% "for" him, writes the Pew Research Center. The president did not make a mistake. In Southaven, Mississippi, on October 2, he urged his supporters to go to the polls:

"Republicans must move and vote. If I were on the ballot, everyone would go. It would be an electoral tidal wave. I am not there, but I am still there because it is also a referendum about me and the deplorable stalemate in which [les démocrates] will rush this country [en cas de victoire]. "

If the Americans officially vote on November 6, in 34 states and the District of Columbia, they began to vote in advance – between four and fifty days before Election Day – by mail or in person. This practice is supposed to make life easier for voters, and to avoid waiting in polling stations, for example.

Advance voting was the rule, from the founding of the United States until January 23, 1845, when it was decided that the election would be held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. The soldiers were granted a derogation: in time of war, they can vote in anticipation, as during the American Civil War. Since then, this right has spread to all, says Michael McDonald, professor of political science, who coordinates the United States Elections Project at the University of Florida.

Up to one third of voters

The phenomenon has grown, reports Vox in 1980, only 4 million Americans had voted in advance; in 2016, they were 47 million to have done it, according to the United States Elections Project, that is to say almost a third of the voters.

In 2008, Barack Obama took a decisive lead over John McCain during early voting, notably in Florida, where the Democratic candidate lost among the voters who voted on election day, Nov. 4, but won when the advance votes have been deducted. To prevent the scenario from reoccurring, states like Florida, Georgia and Tennessee have tried to limit early voting for the 2012 elections. Others, like Ohio and Nebraska, followed in 2016; North Carolina this year. But other states – Mbadachusetts, Maryland and Oklahoma – do not restrict it.

More advance votes than in 2014

A few days before the vote, the turnout of early voting in 24 states this year exceeded that of 2014, notes Michael McDonald, with 28 million bulletins already filed. In the Washington PostHe argues that this increased participation reflects a renewed interest among Democrats, who did not mobilize en mbade in 2014, allowing Republicans to take control of the Senate and expand their control in the House of Representatives. But the data found by the researcher also show a strong mobilization among Republican voters, which suggests much tighter elections than suggested by polls, including elections to the Senate, Florida, Missouri, Nevada or Arizona.

According to NBC, Republican voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas are reported to have rallied more than Democratic voters. In Nevada, Democratic voters are more mobilized. Michael McDonald details in the Washington Post that 192,000 Democratic voters voted in advance, 180,000 Republican voters, as well as 90,000 voters declaring themselves without affiliation. In contrast, in Florida, 3.4 million voters voted in advance (against 3.2 million in 2014), the Republicans being more mobilized (820 000 ballots) than the Democrats (755 000), which should worry the Democrats.

Prudential interpretation

Michael McDonald believes that this burst of good citizenship could favor the Democrats in the states where there is no election in the Senate, like in Iowa, North Carolina or Maryland because, in particular, of the unpopularity from President Trump. But since the election of 2016, when the early results of early voting seemed to boost the chances of Hillary Clinton, commentators are trying to interpret these votes with caution.

In addition to Florida and Nevada, states with more advance poll voters than in 2014 are Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, Minnesota, Montana, New -Mexico, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Wisconsin and West Virginia.

In the home stretch on Tuesday, the School Walkout organization, along with other badociations fighting gun violence, wants to encourage young people of voting age to graduate from high schools and universities to attend. as part of a campaign called #WalkoutToVote.

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Issues, majorities, polls … All about the mid-term elections in the United States