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France or Kanaky? The polling stations of New Caledonia, a small strategic territory of 270,000 inhabitants in the Pacific, opened Sunday at 8 am local time (Saturday 22 hours Paris time) for a historic referendum on independence, where polls predict the victory of the no.
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Nearly 175,000 voters in this French archipelago, colonized in 1853 and with significant nickel reserves, have until 18h (8am in Paris) to go to one of the 284 polling stations and say if they want "That New Caledonia attains full sovereignty and becomes independent".
UN observers
This referendum, which punctuates 30 years of progressive decolonization, is closely monitored by Paris, 18 000 km away. Emmanuel Macron will speak on television at 13h Sunday (23h local time) at the end of the proclamation of the result. To make this vote indisputable, 250 delegates sent by the State, and observers of the United Nations will be present in the offices.
This consultation, foreseen by the Nouméa agreement signed in 1998, is intended to continue the work of reconciliation between Kanak, indigenous people of the territory, and Caldoches, population of European origin, started with the Matignon agreements in 1988. The latter were signed after the violence of the 1980s that culminated in the uprising and the badault on the Ouvéa cave in May 1988, resulting in 25 deaths.
For the Prime Minister Édouard Philippe, who arrives on the Caillou the day after the poll, this referendum marks "the beginning of New Caledonia who wants to build a future".
A campaign "very calm"
While in the Northern Provinces and the loyalty islands, which are Kanak-majority, independence supporters have paved roads and trees with their flags, the pro-France display little the blue-white-red pennant. Xavier Moutier, a young Caldoche aged 19 from Bourail (west), showed his on his pickup. "They do not bother to put their Kanak flag, we have to show ours, to say that we will not be stepped on," he said.
"This is a historic event that everyone wanted, but paradoxically, the stake has lost its intensity," said Pierre-Christophe Pantz, PhD in geopolitics. "The campaign was very calm, the referendum does not arouse enthusiasm, the stakes are trivialized", especially because "the Caledonians think that it will not change their lives", but also because the polls predict a wide victory of no, in a range of 63 to 75%.
Soumynie Mene, a 38-year-old independence activist, said it was "a shame that the population does not feel concerned by a referendum that has been preparing for 30 years", saying that it is "time to turn the page of colonization". In the event of a yes vote, the FLNKS stressed that it did not want a break with France, but independence in partnership with France.
Dreaded reactions in case of victory of the "no"
Three loyalist parties, very divided, defend the maintenance in France, Caledonia together (moderate right), the Rbademblement LR and the New Caledonian Republicans. They highlight the protection of France and 1.3 billion euros of annual aid from France. They hope that this first referendum will also be the last while the Nouméa agreement provides for the possibility of two further consultations within four years.
If the "no" wins, both sides fear the reaction of a part of the Kanak youth who, marginalized, sank into delinquency. The sale of alcohol in shops was banned this weekend, gendarmerie staff were reinforced and the Nouméa prison has increased its capacity. Political staffs have recommended discretion to their activists. But nothing says that some pro-French will not ostensibly celebrate their announced victory.
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