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(Rpt with table)
* Cautious opening in sight in Europe, futures slightly up
* Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell 3% on Wednesday
* Fears of recession hope for further rate cuts
* Exchange stability, oil reduces its losses
by Veronique Tison
PARIS, August 15 (Reuters) - The main European stock exchanges are
expected slightly up Thursday at the opening, fears of recession that
drove down markets the day before, fueling new hopes
rate cuts.
The futures on the indexes suggest an opening up of
0.2% for the Paris CAC 40 .FCHI, 0.3% for the Dax in Frankfurt .GDAXI,
0.1% for the London Footsie .FTSE and 0.3% for the EuroStoxx 50
.STOXX50E.
The CAC and Dax lost more than 2% Wednesday while the Stoxx 600 has
yielded 1.68%, returning to its mid-February levels, in response to
sullen indicators and the inversion of the yield curve in the United States which
fears a recession. .EUFR
"Everywhere the yield curves announce a recession and the
investors take shelter knowing a recession hurts results
of companies and can lose up to 20% on the stock market, "says Chris Rupkey,
economist at MUFG Union Bank in Tokyo. The only positive point, he adds,
is that the severity of the threat can only alarm the central banks and
lead to an appropriate response, in the first place by the Federal Reserve
US.
Sign of the times, the futures market is now seeing a drop in
rate of half a point in the United States in September, after already a reduction of one
quarter point on July 31st.
Investors also follow developments in Hong Kong
after the violent demonstrations of the last days. President Donald Trump
seemed to tie Wednesday the US-China trade negotiations to an outcome
"human" of the crisis in the former British colony.
The agenda in Europe is calm on August 15th, with just the retail sales
British program, but the afternoon will see the publication of a battery
American indicators.
The day is a holiday in France and Italy, and the Milan Stock Exchange is
closed.
VALUES TO FOLLOW:
A WALL STREET
The Dow Jones Index .DJI lost Wednesday 800.49 points to 25.479.42 points,
a 3.05% drop, which is the strongest of the year. The S & P-500 .SPX,
broader, yielded 85.72 points or 2.93% to 2,840.60 points and the Nasdaq
Composite .IXIC 242.42 points (3.02%) to 7.773,94 points.
The 11 major sector indices S & P 500 ended in the red, led by
the energy compartment .SPSY (-4.12%) and the financial sector .SPSY
(-3.56%). .NFR
IN ASIA
Asian markets are down in the wake of Wall
Street even the losses are less heavy. In Tokyo, the Nikkei .N225 index has
closed down 1.21% to 20.405.65 after retreating in the morning to
20,184.85, a low since August 6th.
The Chinese indices .CSI300 .SSEC also reduced their losses, giving up
around 0.3% within one hour of closing.
RATE
With fears of recession, investors have moved in droves
on government bonds, pushing the yield of Treasuries to 30 years
US30YT = RR at a record low of 1.97%. Its decline reaches 60 basis points
in 12 sessions, for a yield now less than that of the three-way vouchers
month.
US 10YT = RR 10-Year Treasuries Return Decreased to 1.55%
under the two-year notes - a reversal of the curve that was no longer
has been observed since 2007 and is seen by many as a sign
forerunner of a recession.
He registered Thursday at 1.5463%, down 0.034 point.
In Europe, the future on the Bund FGBLc1 opened up 13 ticks to
178.44. The 10 year yield DE10YT = RR is 0.66%.
EXCHANGE
Major currencies do not evolve much in the foreign exchange market, including
yen JPY = which had appreciated 0.8% Tuesday against the dollar by taking advantage of its
safe haven status.
The euro / dollar EUR = regains 0.1% at 1.1150 and the dollar index .DXY
drops 0.07% to 97.921.
OIL
Crude prices, down 3% Wednesday, remain downward
but limit their losses: the October contract on North Sea Brent
LCoC1 yields 0.30% to $ 59.30 and US light crude CLc1 drops
0.09% to 55.18.
MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS ON THE AGENDA OF AUGUST 15:
COUNTRIES GMT INDICATOR PERIOD CONSENSUS PREVIOUS
GB 08:30 Retail sales July -0.2% + 1.0%
annual variation + 2.6% + 3.8%
US 12:30 Manufacturing Index "Empire August 3.00 4.30
State "
12.30 pm Unemployment registration week at 214.000 209.000
August 10
12:30 Acivity index "Philly August 10.0 21.8
Fed "
12:30 Productivity (preliminary) T2 + 1,5% + 3,4%
Labor cost + 2.0% -1.6%
(preliminary)
12:30 pm Retail sales July + 0.3% + 0.4%
1:15 Industrial production July + 0.1% inch.
14:00 Stocks of companies June + 0.1% + 0.3%
14:00 Real estate index NAHB August 65 65
MARKET SITUATION
(Some data may show a slight shift)
SCHOLARSHIPS
ASIAN
Indices Last Var. Var points. % YTD
Nikkei-225 20405.65 -249.48 -1.21% + 1.95%
.N225
Topix .TOPX 1483.85 -15.65 -1.04% -0.69%
Hong Kong 25423.92 + 121.64 + 0.48% -1.63%
.HSI
Taiwan .TWII 10327.13 -100.60 -0.96% -3.58%
Seoul .KS11 1938.37 +12.54 + 0.65% -5.03%
Singapore 3108.90 -38.70 -1.23% + 1.31%
.STI
Shanghai 2812.36 + 3.45 + 0.12% + 12.77%
.SSEC
Sydney .AXJO 6408.10 -187.80 -2.85% + 13.49%
Closing in Tokyo: .TFR
WALL STREET
Previous Closing:
Indices Last Var. Var points. % YTD
Dow Jones 25479.42 -800.49 -3.05% + 9.23%
.DJI
S & P-500 2840.60 -85.72 -2.93% + 13.31%
.SPx
Nasdaq .IXIC 7773.94 -242.42 -3.02% + 17.16%
Nasdaq 100 7490.13 -238.02 -3.08% + 18.33%
NDX
Detail of the session on Wall Street:
.NFR
"The Day Ahead" - Update on the next session
Wall Street DAY / US
MARKETS
EUROPEAN
The futures on the CAC 40 0 # FCE: and on
the EuroStoxx50 0 # STXE:
The values to follow in Paris and in
Europe: WATCH / LFR
The previous session:
Indices Closing Var. Var points. % YTD
Eurofirst 300 1442.44 -23.82 -1.62% + 8.34%
.FTEU3
Eurostoxx 50 3288.70 -68.46 -2.04% + 9.57%
.STOXX50E
CAC 40 .FCHI 5251.30 -111.77 -2.08% + 11.00%
Dax 30 11492.66 -257.47 -2.19% + 8.84%
.GDAXI
FTSE .FTSE 7147.88 -103.02 -1.42% + 6.24%
SMI .SSMI 9628.48 -157.76 -1.61% + 14.23%
EXCHANGE
Course Watch Var. % YTD
Euro / Dlr 1,1147 1,1138 + 0.08% -2.81%
EUR =
Dlr / Yen JPY = 106.34 105.89 + 0.42% -3.56%
Euro / Yen 118.57 117.96 + 0.52% -6.06%
EURJPY =
Dlr / CHF CHF = 0.9745 0.9732 + 0.13% -0.70%
Euro / CHF 1.0866 1.0841 + 0.23% -3.45%
EURCHF =
Stg / Dlr GBP = 1.2068 1.2059 + 0.07% -5.40%
Index $ 97.9670 97.9870 -0.02% + 1.87%
.DXY
RATE
Last Var. Spread / Bund
(Pts)
Bund 10 years DE10YT = RR -0,6540 -0,0060
Bund 2 years -0,8800 -0,0090
DE2YT = RR
OAT 10 years -0.3663 +0.0010 +28.77
FR10YT RR =
Treasury 10 years US10YT = RR 1.5758 -0.0050
Treasury 2 years US2YT = RR 1,5769 +0,0000
OIL
(in dollars) Price Previous Var Var.% YTD
Light crude US 55.29 55.23 +0.06 + 0.11% + 20.69%
CLc1
Brent LCOc1 59.38 59.48 -0.10 -0.17% + 9.66%
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