the procrastination of Marshal Haftar

Would he have wanted us to speak only of him that he would not have done otherwise? Marshal Khalifa Haftar, head of the Libyan National Army (LNA) and strongman of Cyrenaica (east), rival of the head of the national agreement government, Faïez Sarraj, established in Tripoli (west), will have played until with the nerves of the organizers of the conference on Libya, held on 12 and 13 November in Palermo.

For him at least, this summit will have been a success. Indeed, from beginning to end, his attitude mobilized the minds, much more than the content of the discussions.

At the final press conference, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte welcomed the smooth running of the meeting, while recognizing the enormity of the task: "If, in order to speak of success, we had to find the solution to all the problems, then it is not a success"he conceded, stressing that all the important protagonists of the Libyan game were present. At that time, Marshal Haftar as well as his Egyptian ally, President Al-Sisi, had left the scene for several hours.

In the luxurious enclosure of Villa Igiea, contradictory information followed one another all day Monday. The members of the Italian delegation distilled over the hours the fragmentary and sibylline information, without answering any question. "He should come", "He's on his way to the airport", " he left ", "The plane is Italian"… At 7 pm, nothing was certain yet. Marshal Khalifa Haftar finally came Monday evening, but he immediately set the limits of his presence at this international event around the future of his country.

Electric atmosphere

Arrived among the last on the place of the conference, he was welcomed in an environment that the wait had made somewhat electric. In front of the photographers and the cameras, he offered himself a long aside with the Italian prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, who still seemed to have to convince him to join the conference. Then, once out of the scene, the Libyan soldier, announced … that he refused to join the dinner offered by the president of the council Conte.

Shortly after, a spokesman for the Libyan National Army said that Haftar did not"Is not in Palermo to attend the conference" organized by Rome but for "Meet leaders from neighboring countries". Thus he managed to appear as both present and absent, overlooking the discussions of 38 delegations present without having to take part. "It is true that the Italians had to engage in a particularly complicated choreography", conceded, at the end of the debates, a participant of the conference.

The uncertainty maintained until the last minute around his arrival in Palermo, as well as his willingness to stand out from the format desired by the Italians can be explained by two main reasons, according to observers of the Libyan scene.

In the first place, Haftar expressed his frustration with some diplomatic developments in the final stretch before the Palermo summit. According to one of his advisers, he would not have appreciated a tweet published by Matteo Salvini, Deputy Prime Minister, during his visit to Qatar on 31 October. In this message, Mr. Salvini said he had "Discovered a respectful and tolerant country that pushed back extremism" and that "Will help stabilize Libya". However, Qatar is part of Turkey's regional axis that supports the opponents – from the "revolutionary" camp or the movement of the Muslim Brotherhood – Marshal, which is supported by the United Arab Emirates and Egypt.

On the other hand, the Turkish Defense Minister's trip to Tripoli on November 5, where he met with Mr. Sarraj, the head of the "national agreement" government, as well as the latter's visit on November 9 in Ankara. where he met Recep Tayyip Erdogan would also have offended the marshal, according to his adviser. Haftar wanted to express his displeasure by staging his possible defection to Palermo.

By making the success of the Palermo meeting depend on his coming, he would have especially wanted to send a message to Rome, the inviting power, that he considers too close to the tripolitan government of Mr. Sarraj. "It does not displease him to embarrbad the Italians a little because of their relations with the leaders of Tripolitania"Mohamed Eljahr, a Libyan researcher affiliated to the Atlantic Council think tank, said.
Beyond that, Mr. Haftar would seek to impose his stature as a statesman. "The message is mainly addressed to the Libyan public opinion, Mr Eljarh adds. It is about projecting the image of the strong man. While other Libyan politicians are mocked for their weakness, he seeks to appear as one that allows Libya to regain its sovereignty. "

No significant progress

The Italians, too, seemed very concerned about their public opinion. In fact, apart from the reaffirmation of the Italian leadership that was supposed to demonstrate the meeting, the meeting did not lead to any significant progress and especially gave the image of a confused situation, where the various actors do not arrive sit at the same table with great difficulty. Optimists, however, will note that an approximate deadline has been set: except for a hitch, general elections are expected to be held in the spring of 2019. A date that many diplomats consider realistic. "If all goes well, the process can be done in four or five months", says a French diplomat.

During his brief meeting with Prime Minister Sarraj, on the sidelines of the conference, Marshal Haftar wanted rebadurance. "We do not change horses in the middle of the river"he said in a daring metaphor, to signify that there is no question of seeking to oust his opponent. The problem is that in Libya, precisely, there is no river.