[ad_1]
As the United States seems to distance itself from Saudi Arabia, will Emmanuel Macron be able to take advantage of the Qatari emir's visit to restore the image of French diplomacy?
You like this article? Share it!
By Jean Radet
One year after the beginning of the Gulf crisis, the blockade imposed by Riyadh in Doha is a failure. While the United States seems to distance itself from Saudi Arabia, will Emmanuel Macron take advantage of the visit of the Qatari Emir to restore the image of French diplomacy?
Friday, July 6, Emmanuel Macron will receive at the Élysée the Emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim al-Thani. An official visit, which will be the third meeting of the two heads of state in less than a year; the opportunity, especially for the French president, to improve its image on the international scene, he who has accumulated setbacks in recent months. And, perhaps, to pose as an arbitrator in the resolution of the crisis of the Gulf.
Because in matters of diplomacy, the communication of the one who perorated "Make our planet great again" made long fire. Whether on the Iranian issue, where his "friendship" displayed with Donald Trump has not prevented the latter from decreeing new sanctions against Tehran, or on the European scene, where Angela's Germany Merkel rejected the French proposals to 2021, the Macronian diplomacy is translated by "a dramatic loss of influence" according to the economist Jacques Sapir, "which results from bad diplomatic choices and errors repeated in the alliances. "
" Qatar has managed to turn this crisis into opportunity "
To counteract " the collapse of an international policy based on ideology and not the best interests of the country " – still according to Jacques Sapir – the visit of the emir of Qatar represents an unexpected opportunity for Emmanuel Macron. Especially since the blockade imposed on the small emirate by Saudi Arabia and its allies (a quartet composed of the United Arab Emirates [EAU] of Egypt and Bahrain) since June 2017 has been a resounding failure for Riyadh. [19659005InfactoneyearafterthequartetbrokediplomaticrelationsandtheimpositionofasevereeconomicblockadeQatarneverseemedtobedoingsowellBasedonitsgasreservesDohahasreshapeditseconomyinafewweeksforgingnewpartnershipsandsettingupnewlogisticsplatformstoensurethesupplyofitspopulationSomuchsothattheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)ruledonMay30that "Qatar's growth performance remains robust and that the direct economic and financial impact of the crisis has been managed".
An opinion shared by Andreas Krieg, professor at King's College London, for whom "Qatar has managed to turn this crisis into opportunity" . His British counterpart, Kristian Ulrichsen, draws the same badysis: "Qataris have shown resilience and great pragmatism by quickly adapting to the new reality and by setting up alternative trading and logistical arrangements that have minimized […] the costs of the crisis. "
For its part, Saudi Arabia seems trapped by the crisis that it has itself caused. After a year of blockade and invective, how to backtrack without losing face? But Riyad, which is now facing the joint pressure of Americans and Europeans to end a failed conflict, must come out of it. In other words, both sides are ripe for compromise. And this is where Emmanuel Macron has a – beautiful – playing card.
A golden opportunity for French diplomacy
Adept at the "same time", the host of the Elysee knows that France has interests in Qatar as in Saudi Arabia. The presidency recalls that the latter "is our largest trading partner in the Gulf, with 10 billion euros in 2014 and 8.5 billion euros in 2015".
As for Doha, the services of the Elysee insist that "economic ties with Qatar are solid, commercially or financially" and that while the investments qataris in France amounted to 25 billion euros in 2015.
Paris, which seeks to promote "appeasement" and "dialogue" in the crisis that shakes the Gulf, thus household "the goat and cabbage in order to keep good relations with the different countries (of the region), while avoiding to offend those which could be it " badyzes a specialist of the Middle East questioned by Huffington Post according to which "the diplomatic stakes have become much more important since the Gulf crisis."
For Emmanuel Macron, the moment is all the more opportune as the United States, traditionally steadfast support of the Saudi Arabia begin to drop Riyadh. On January 15, in an interview with Emir Tamim Hamad al-Thani, Donald Trump took the opposite of his previous statements, hailing "the Doha efforts in the fight against terrorism" and calling for "to strengthen relations with Qatar in the security and economic field" . An important turnaround, which some interpret as the beginning of a de-escalation in the Gulf. Emmanuel Macron will he take the opportunity and make France the arbiter of a conflict which no country – except Iran – came out winner? Answer Friday.
Do you like this article? Share it!
[ad_2]
Source link
