Why Donald Trump plays very big

From our correspondent in the United States,

The battle promises to be explosive. On Tuesday, US voters will renew the entire House of Representatives, one-third of the Senate and two-thirds of the governors. In a country more torn than ever, these mid-term elections have turned into a referendum for or against Donald Trump. In the event of a victory in the House, the Democrats will be able to block the American President's policy and, perhaps,
try to dismiss him. We are not there.

Favorite Democrats in the House but not in the Senate

The most likely scenario is that of American cohabitation. According to the mathematical model of the FiveThirtyEight website, Democrats have a 80% chance of winning a majority in the House of Representatives. On the other hand, Republicans remain favorites in the Senate, because of a card that is favorable to them: out of the 35 seats at stake, three-quarters of leavers are democrats, and several are in difficulty in rural states. The US president can also count on an economy that remains bright, with an unemployment rate at the lowest, at 3.7%.

Warning, however, warns Sam Wang, Princeton statistical expert: "The polls were wrong by several points in 2016, and the margin of error is more important for midterms, up to 4%. All will be played on the participation, and it is difficult to predict for legislative. "
At 44% of favorable opinions, the popularity of Donald Trump goes back, but it remains comparable to that of Obama in 2010, year when the Democrats had spanked. The American president has in any case threw all his forces into the battle. He has participated in nearly 30 meetings in two months to support Republican candidates, like his former rival Ted Cruz in Texas. But in an interview with AP, he took the lead, saying that a defeat would be "no [sa] fault. "

The spectrum of a impeachment, but not right now

The party that controls the House can vote impeachment by simple majority. It's only happened twice in just over two hundred years, to Andrew Jackson and Bill Clinton – Nixon has resigned before. But
no president has ever been deposed. After a trial, the Senate must condemn the tenant of the White House by a two-thirds majority (67 senators out of 100).

"Even with the majority in the House, the Democrats are not likely to play this card right away," said Chris Edelson, a professor of political science at the American University in Washington. They will wait until prosecutor Robert Mueller completes his investigation of Russia, presumably by the end of the year. But, even in the case of explosive revelations, "Republicans have for the moment almost always blocked behind Trump," says the academic, including to confirm Judge Brett Kavanaugh in the Supreme Court despite allegations of badual badault against him .

Before talking aboutimpeachment, Democrats can launch parliamentary inquiries on Russia, the finances of the Trump Organization and
the money paid to ex-badstar Stormy Daniels during the campaign. They will also have the power to block any Republican bill. For Chris Edelson, "we should not see such a situation as a blockage of Congress, but as a fair rebalancing planned to protect American democracy. "