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As expected, the Administrative Council of the European Stability Mechanism met on Friday and approved the payment to Greece but … only in principle and not on the substance (not disbursed) in as long as in the national parliaments which means that Greece will have to meet the requirement of the Germans for equivalents of 28 million euros to match the extension of the rate of Low VAT to the five refugee islands until the end of the year.
This evolution puts the institutions back into the process, who will have to check the boxes with the spending cuts that will be sent to their final form by the Greek government to see if they are actually saving money and then reporting back to Europeans and Germans.
This does not mean that the 15 billion euros will not be disbursed if Greece has completed 450 prerequisites under the third memorandum (including the hypermarket) and has already obtained the credit of the European Commissioner Pierre Moscovici to finish the program.
But the Germans' decision to block the tranche is a signal to the government and the Commission that final decisions are made by the Eurogroup and the national parliaments of the euro area member states represented in it.
He also notes the following:
– The blockage of the last $ 15 billion lasts a few days, for a virtually ridiculous sum of $ 28 million, is a sign that Greece will not be able to move around the world. Autonomy in the development of fiscal policies after August 20, when the program is completed, and gives an overview of the rigorous framework of enhanced surveillance, which is nothing else. that a memorandum disguised with Euros twice a year and, of course, participation in the form of the International Monetary Fund (as spokesman Jerry Rice authorized yesterday). The new regime will unfold with austerity relentlessly until 2022 and a surplus of 3.5% of GDP.
– At the same time, yesterday's move on the side of the Eurogroup – and essentially on the Berlin side – for 28 million euros makes it very difficult to ban the # 39, cancellation of the pension reduction measure estimated at 1.8 billion. This is how the negotiations between Greece and the Commission in October in the framework of the drafting of the 2019 budget take on a new dimension, because the attitude of the Eurogroup, which plays a decisive role in developments, limits the freedom of movement of the government. tax policy.
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