Burning and leaving the markets

In 23 days from today, August 20, the Circle of Memorandums is generally closed for Greece. Typically. Why, fundamentally, the next day, will the Greek economy be endowed with a new, enhanced surveillance regime that will last until 2020 and will be trapped in the debt trap during still many years

. At the same time, international markets remain cautious. the government seems to have abandoned not only the plans but also the ideas that it has made to re-export to the markets before the end of the third program, wanting to accelerate the exit of the third protocol with such a measure

Difficult Mohamed el Erian , one of the world's best-known economists and investors, in an interview with "NEA" compares Greece to the image of a patient who, having stayed in intensive care and in several chambers of care, now goes out of the hospital. "He can walk slowly, but he is not yet strong enough to walk vigorously or to run."

Greek debt remains high as a percentage of GDP, says El Erian, despite the June 21 decisions of the Eurogroup with its lightening measures and the ten-year extension of maturities.

He argues that markets still exist, fear and debt are so high that the country can not borrow more to finance its future debt distress projects

The credit crisis is also underlined by the 39; international credit rating agency Moody's, and it is expected to resume the next week and the International Monetary Fund in its report on the viability of the Greek debt. The report of the Executive Board of the Fund yesterday considered the report, which should characterize debt as sustainable for the period until 2032, although this will be linked to a series of conditions, but in the long run, serious objections will be raised [19659002] On August 20, with the third adjustment program ends for Greece and the derogation. This means that the Greek banking system will not be able to borrow (subject to the main rules of the ECB) the low interest rates of Eurobank.

Until now, Greek banks enjoyed this privilege because Greece remained in a program, Frankfurt secured. Without waiver, there is no quantitative easing (QE), as Marius Draghi has pointed out.

QE can it relax in September and expire at the end of the year, but during this four month period, the Greek economy might be able to absorb the Greek government debt. is stimulated by the improved liquidity of the ECB's program, which has so far helped the rest of the eurozone economies

Greece's accession to QE would help speed up the spread of Greek bond spreads. Indeed, the Bank of Greece's estimates indicate that if Greece retained the waiver and adhered to the QE, the 10-year bond rates would be at least 0.70 point lower than the current rate of 3.85. %

Interest and liquidity in the international markets given that the summer is at very limited levels, all have led the DZHIH to wait a long time before making a new move to the markets because it aims to attract long-term investors rather than hedge funds.

The security cushion that has already been created and will be expanded in the coming days with the disbursement of the last 15 billion euros will fully cover the financing needs of the end of 2022. Today 's data, at the Bank of Greece, cash is available in the range of 20 billion euros. This amount will add 15 billion euros to the latest MSB payment, which will bring the account to 35 billion euros.