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The June Eurogroup agreement rewarded Greece for its efforts and provided the foundation for further climate improvement, Barlcays reports.
As he points out, Greece is coming out of its third bailout this summer with a significant "cushion" of liquidity, while public debt and mixed financial needs in the next decade seem viable
although may require more longer-term measures Debt Relief Barc The Company believes that the positive market trend is expected to continue over the coming months, reinforced by the likelihood that Greek bonds will be included in the ECB bond purchase program.
According to Barclays, the June Eurogroup agreement the likelihood that Greek bonds will participate in the ECB's program. The decision, which could be taken even at the next meeting of the ECB's Governing Council on 26 July, to be included in the net markets, is ambiguous. If Greek bonds are excluded at this stage, it is likely that they will include in the reinvestment period although this may prove more difficult. The IMF debt sustainability estimates, that were released this month, will be crucial. Even though the potential amounts of purchases will be relatively small, the signal they will send to the markets will be strong, which will result in further compression of the risk premium.
At the same time, Barclays notes that the fact that most relief measures were positive but the trajectory of long-term public debt largely depends on budgetary efforts substantial and continuous and somewhat optimistic macroeconomics
Even if there is a positive climate in the coming months, he notes, opposite winds can hit Greece under the shape of a (a) mild) metastasis of Italy and stunted as a result of the escalation of the trade war with the United States .
According to Barclays, the political risk is increased and does not exclude early elections in the European elections of spring 2019. As he had already argued in the report, the Greece: growth and financing but observing political uncertainty on February 19, 2018, believes that the risk of early elections adds considerable uncertainty to an otherwise positive outlook
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