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"Vouvi" is the current reaction to the Greek bond market regarding the Eurogroup's decision yesterday, which leads to the clear exclusion of Greece from QE quantitative easing program and waiver after the end of the program
Mari Draggi's statements last week created vague expectations of joining QE with some badysts (HSBC) to believe that because Greece was still a "special case" for the eurozone, the ECB will be more flexible So, Draghi gave a margin to join QE and extend the waiver after the end of the program if Greece pbaded the DSA. But yesterday's statement from Benoua Kere came to explain what Dragie meant. As the spokesman for the ECB said, the derogation is only granted if a country participates in a program and reinforced control is neither, adding that the timetable for disbursements have changed, it is certain that Greece will not be able to participate in QE
As the Greek counterparts today suggest, these statements have not been a shock because the market already has more or less least estimated that the QE and the derogation would not follow Greece after the program. and so there was no one landing or frustrating expectations. The eventual inclusion of Greek government securities for a while would only be a surprise if it were done, sending a positive message of confidence to the market and pushing yields even lower
Thus, the yield The 10-year Greek bond is currently at 3,879 with a marginal increase of 0.21% and continues to reach the lowest levels since early May, before the onset of the Italian crisis. The five-year yield also marginally increased to 2.931% (+ 0.34%) at levels moving at the end of April.
Although QE would be an important catalyst for the further improvement of Greek bonds, the Greek government is trying to find the time for a possible new exit to the markets, the message sent by lenders is that Greece to return to its regularity must faithfully adhere to the agreement and not deviate to a minimum
Frequency Kourtalis
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