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Five months later and, as a nation, we are still floundering: 4% of the world’s population with 22% of Covid deaths worldwide. For comparison, Japan, with 40% of our population, saw less than 1% of the number of our C-19s killed. They’re lucky they don’t have our “Murica-Land-of-the-Free” mentality. Having survived SARS and MERS, the Japanese have a habit of wearing masks and distance themselves and everything in between. So where are we now?
Fifth coronavirus?
SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for Covid-19, is a coronavirus, one of seven known to infect humans. Two of them – the original SARS virus (2002-2004) and MERS (2012+) – are much less infectious than the current coronavirus. The other four (229E, OC43, NL63 and HKU1) cause most cases of colds. The most likely end of the game, according to many researchers, is that SARS-CoV-2 will become the “fifth coronavirus,” circulating among us regularly, but in a milder, less deadly form.
It makes sense: a dead host is useless for a virus. To survive, it needs living hosts, roaming around, infecting other people. So in the long run, we can expect this virus to mutate into, so to speak, a milder, milder form.
Vaccine?
A Covid vaccine is unlikely to be the silver bullet we all hope for: the first approved vaccine is unlikely to be the final ‘best’ vaccine, and once a vaccine is certified for universal use, we will likely have to get it. -the every year, as a flu shot.
Because C-19 will never go away. Currently, while we have vaccines against a dozen human viruses, only one disease of viral origin – smallpox – has been completely eradicated. And it took almost 20 years of intense and unwavering international cooperation and vaccination: far from the competitive and nationalistic atmosphere of today.
Masks?
Although it is generally touted as protecting others, a sheet mask also helps you, the wearer, by limiting the “viral load” you might inhale when you are with an infected person. Researchers are pretty sure that if you are infected, the lower the load, the less severe your symptoms. It’s not clear exactly how many C-19 viral particles it takes to infect someone (SARS took a few hundred when the critical dose for MERS was several thousand), but if 1,000 Covid viruses lead you to l hospital fighting for your life, 500 might make you feel bad for a few days. (And that difference of 500 could come from wearing a mask.)
This was the case with chickenpox, before a vaccine was released in 1995. “This is the second child in the home who becomes much sicker because they are exposed to a lot more. [chickenpox] virus, ”according to vaccine expert Dr Paul Offit. The same goes for the hepatitis B virus: the higher your viral load, the sicker you are.
Immune systems?
Our immune systems have (very roughly speaking) two main lines of defense against viruses: antibody, that is, proteins that recognize distinctive parts of the virus (epitopes) and then essentially suffocate it; and
killer T cells, that is, cells that recognize epitopes on the surface of a cell infected with a virus and order the cell to self-destruct. Typically, antibodies and T cells go hand in hand during epidemics, so if someone displays antibodies (which are quick and easy to detect from a blood sample), they also have T cells ( which can only be detected by specialized laboratory tests.).
SARS-Co-2 appears to be an exception to the “antibodies and killer T cells work in tandem” rule. For example, one study found that two-thirds of asymptomatic close contacts of an infected person had abundant T cells but no detectable antibodies. Yet another challenge as scientists try to figure out this bizarre virus!
Left: Single Covid virus (1 / 100,000th the size of a grain of salt) with red “spikes”. (CDC) Right: detail of the point. Spikes on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus can act as epitopes to be recognized by a potential vaccine. Each peak is an elegant assembly of three identical protein chains (protomers), two of which (white and gray) are shown without detail, while the third is colored according to the different domains of the protein. (Jason McLellan, University of Texas at Austin, used with permission)
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SARS-CoV-2 is really new and researchers only have six months of data. During this time, however, they discovered many, including: its RNA genome; its probable source; how it is transmitted; and what types of vaccines can be used against it. (Currently, over 160 vaccine candidates are in development.) Each week produces new data and new surprises. In a year, we will know much more. Until then, you know the protocol: masks, hand washing, six feet… and avoid gatherings (“super-spreaders” have turned into “super-events”).
Unless your idea of a good time is to have a fan stuck in your throat.
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