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Despite a recent reported slowdown in some COVID-19 hospitalization metrics, an Arizona State University expert warns the state could still see the peak of that increase.
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As of Wednesday, the state’s coronavirus dashboard showed 4,663 COVID-19 hospital patients in Arizona hospitals. That number has generally been declining since it peaked on Jan. 11, at 5,082. Critical care patients have also seen a slight decline over the same period.
“These numbers fluctuate from day to day,” said Dr. Joshua LaBaer, executive director of ASU’s Biodesign Institute. “I wouldn’t read too much here and a little there. There will be daily fluctuations and I’m not convinced we’re really seeing a reliable reduction in intensive care use or hospitalization yet.”
Dr LaBaer said their forecast models indicated that the end of January or the beginning of February was a key time for this surge.
“So far the numbers match our model well,” he said. “[It] predicted that somewhere in late January and early February I wouldn’t call it a spike, but I could call it the start of a plateau. “
With 11,528 deaths from COVID-19 in Arizona, and more, Dr LaBaer said he could surpass cancer and heart disease as the leading cause of death within 12 months. He said these are responsible for around 12,000 deaths per year.
Indeed, according to information from the Arizona Department of Health Services, heart disease was the leading cause of death in Arizona in 2017, accounting for 12,285 deaths.
“Remember that even though the vaccine has already reached thousands of guns, the number of vaccines that have come out has no impact, no appreciable impact, on the spread of the virus,” Dr LaBaer said. “It will take many, many more vaccinations before you start to see any appreciable reduction in the spread of the virus.”
Dr LaBaer also noted that the number of people looking for COVID-19 tests has declined. He stressed the importance of having people tested as much as possible.
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