Here's why thousands of auto workers could soon find themselves on strike

The United Auto Workers Union is about to start negotiating new contracts for 150,000 workers at Big Three in Detroit on Monday as part of what could be the most controversial negotiations the auto sector has seen since. years.

The union will look to make significant gains over the most recent four-year contracts with companies, ratified in 2015. Automakers are seeking to reduce labor costs compared to foreign competitors who build cars. cars and trucks in the United States with low-wage workers. Industry observers believe that extremely different expectations create the possibility of a major strike.

Several years of auto sales up and near record businesses have been created, but workers have not forgotten the sacrifices they made to stabilize the sector during the financial crisis, notably by lowering the pay scale for new employees. Meanwhile, Ford, General Motors and Fiat Chrysler will show a boom slowing sales and the need to invest in electric and automated vehicles, which is why they can not afford higher costs.

Observers estimated that GM's decision in late 2007 at rest several American factories as a shot in the goal of weakening the union's position in advance.

"At the moment, we are reaching or reaching the peak of auto sales, and forecasters are showing some slowdown. This could mean that the profits of the next two years will not be what they were, "said Kristin Dziczek, head of labor and economy in the automotive industry at the Center for Automotive Research.

At the same time, Dziczek said, "It's a different environment after four years of successful operations. Workers will want to see money in their paychecks. "

Contracts for the self-employed are determined by "standard" bargaining: the union negotiates separately with each firm, but the final agreements tend to include more or less the same wages and benefits. Each company will explain why their contract should be settled before others in order to have the most influence and dictate terms.

Just as contracts are often similar, so are the main bargaining blocking points. The UAW and the three builders refused interviews for this story. But it is clear that both parties expect the biggest struggles will be the employment of temporary workers in the Big Three, as well as the time it takes for new employees to traditional remuneration.

UAW contracts limit the number of agency workers that builders can employ at any given time. Companies will probably want to expand their use in the name of "flexibility" – filling vacancies or increasing production at a lower cost than permanent employees. US automakers often point to the high proportion of agency workers working with foreign competitors manufacturing in the southern United States. like Nissan, saying that it disadvantages them.

In a statement to HuffPost on the negotiations, Ford said, "Our goal is to reach a fair deal with the UAW that allows it to be more competitive so that we can continue to preserve and protect well-paid manufacturing jobs and to keep our history of investing in our US factories. "

But what is flexible for automakers is a farm for the union. Although union contracts cover temporary workers, they do not enjoy the same wages, benefits and job security as their full-time counterparts. Union members – even those in permanent positions – would find it in their own interest to limit the use of agency contractors.

Another point of probable discord is the time it takes for workers with less seniority to start earning the maximum salary of $ 29 at the hour. When the industry collapsed in the face of the economic downturn, the UAW accepted a controversial two-tier system in which new employees would be on a lower pay scale than veterans. The union has generally managed to eliminate this system in its 2015 contract.

But the members hardly approved this agreementpartly because the two-tier system has been replaced by a so-called "growing" arrangement where workers hired after 2007 are required to have eight years to reach the highest pay scale.

The UAW could lobby to tighten or eliminate this delay in order to more quickly eliminate the plants from the remains of the two-tier system. It is also possible that one or all builders are trying to lengthen the progression to maintain the salary of new employees.

"It's a very long bridge," said Scott Houldieson, vice-president of UAW Local 551 and electrician at the Ford factory in Chicago.

Houldieson noted that the eight-year progression does not include the time that a worker could be employed on a temporary basis as well. His local union passed resolutions urging the union to fight for temporary workers in contract negotiations.

These issues do not even concern health care, another subject of probable discord. Automakers will almost certainly want to transfer more of these costs to their employees through higher deductibles and other non-refundable fees.

The UAW referred to HuffPost for a speech made in March by union president Gary Jones, who took the helm last year. Jones said the union would increase strike pay – money workers receive from this union in the event of a work stoppage – from $ 200 to $ 250 and possibly $ 275 a week.

"The increase in strike pay is an important signal for all our members, namely that the International Executive Board has their backs," Jones said. "We are ready to work and prepare the plans. And we are ready to set the bar high. "

The automakers took for a sign – or an attitude – that the union would be willing to call for a strike if its requirements are not met. The fund in which the UAW could draw to resist the strike is deep, totaling more than 720 million dollars from 2018.

Negotiations begin Monday and the union is expected to take a series of strike votes in the month of August. Current contracts expire in September, but new contracts may not be ratified until November – or later if workers end up on a protracted strike.

"It will be difficult," said Dziczek. "Nothing is done until everything is finished."