How do gold, oil, stocks and the USD behave after the start of the FOMC rate cuts?



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FEDERAL RESERVE RATE CUTTING CYCLES AND MARKET PERFORMANCE – SUMMARY POINTS:

  • The Federal Reserve is expected to announce its second interest rate cut this year and should confirm the move from the central bank to a more and more dovish monetary policy
  • FOMC rate cuts have consistently produced mixed returns for assets such as gold, crude oil, the S & P 500 and the US dollar.
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The Federal Reserve must release its latest monetary policy update on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The markets are largely anticipating that the FOMC will reduce its key interest rate by 0.25%, while the central banks of the world are easing the financial conditions. The dovish actions of the Fed and other central banks have focused on fighting the signs of economic weakness and supporting current growth, in light of the enormous risks that come largely from the economic crisis. American-Chinese trade war and increasing geopolitical instability.

On this note, the Fed meeting in July revealed the first reduction in FOMC interest rates in more than a decade. This decision was made following a radical change in the Federal Reserve's wording and forecasts compared to the same period of last year. In fact, the median federal funds rate (FFR) estimate for 2019 was previously estimated at 3.1% based on the September 2018 economic projections provided by Fed members, while the most recent forecast provided last June provides for a FFR rate of 2.4%. Yet, the current range of federal funds target rates is between 2.00 and 2.25%.

IS THE FED ENTERING A RUN CYCLE OF INTEREST RATES?

The Federal Reserve's dual mandate governing central bank decisions includes price stability and full employment. Although the decline is likely to contribute to slowdown in global GDP growth Despite the fact that Wednesday's FOMC decision reveals that the FOMC's decision on Wednesday remains unchanged, the potential for deteriorating economic fundamentals can not be discounted and could lead to further interest rate cuts.

Meanwhile, inflation continues to be below the Fed's target as fears of recession Reversal of the US Treasury yield curvethe central bank will probably continue its efforts by reducing borrowing costs in the hope of boosting business consumption and investment. That said, another Fed rate cut could suggest that its scale is rocking away from a "mid-cycle adjustment" instead of a complete set of accommodative policy measures. Alas, following our initial analysis of The stock market comes back when the Fed cuts ratesThe tables and charts below detail the performance of various assets such as gold, crude oil, S & P 500 and the US dollar as the Fed enters a cycle of interest rate cuts.

THE GOLD PRICE RETURNS WHEN THE FED REDUCED ITS RATE

Gold price yield during the Fed rate cutHow gold, oil, stocks and USD executed after the start of the FOMC rate cuts

The price of crude oil comes back when the federal government cuts prices

Return of the price of oil during the reduction of the rate of the FedGraph of FOMC oil price and performance rate reduction

The S & P 500 Index is back when the Fed cuts rates

Stock Price Returns When Fed Reduces Rate TableFOMC rate reduction chart and S & P 500 index

AMERICAN DOLLAR INDEX (US DOLLARS INDEX) RETURNS WHEN FED REDUCES RATE

US dollar rate comes back when Fed rate cutFOMC performance chart in terms of rate and index reduction in US dollars

— Written by Rich Dvorak, Junior Analyst for DailyFX.com

Connect with @RichDvorakFX on Twitter for a real-time market overview

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