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When your team has the number one pick in the NBA Draft, the excitement around the team reaches very high levels. We’re seeing that right now with the Detroit Pistons after making Oklahoma State’s Cade Cunningham the number one overall pick and hopefully the face of the Pistons’ next championship team. However, there are going to be some bumps in the road to the top of the NBA, including rookie season.
This article isn’t meant to spoil the fun everyone has with the Pistons’ anointed savior, but it does at least aim to set realistic expectations for Cunningham and the Pistons. Everyone wants to dream of participating in the play-in tournament, but there is a lot that can be done to make it happen.
Expectations for Cade
The easiest way to set expectations for Cade is to look at some comparable players and how they have performed over their rookie seasons. Keep in mind that some of the players I’m going to watch are guys Cade was compared to during the draft process, guys like Luka Doncic and Grant Hill. While not all of these comparisons are perfect, it at least gives us a statistical database to examine.
Luka Doncic has had an impressive rookie year and if everything goes perfectly for Cade Cunningham he could reach that level, but to expect Cade to emulate that as a rookie is to prepare for disappointment. Luka averaged 21 points, 6 assists and 7 rebounds per game on 43/33/71 separate shots as a rookie. Those numbers actually compare quite favorably to Cade’s college stats of 20 points, 6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on shooting divisions of 44/40/85.
Cunningham is capable of reaching these levels as a rookie, but I wouldn’t expect him to show such good numbers. Keep in mind that Luka entered the NBA from a professional league in Europe where he played since he was 16. Although European basketball was not at the level of NBA basketball, he still played against adult men, which prepared him better to face adult NBA men. Also, don’t forget that despite Luka Doncic’s impressive numbers, the Mavericks finished the season 33-49. So for those of you who think the Pistons are a good choice for the Play-In tournament, I’d cool my expectations down a bit.
Another comparison for Cade is one that Pistons fans are familiar with. Grant Hill is another great wing that could start the offense. He burst onto the scene after the Pistons took him third in the 1994 draft. He made the All-Star as a rookie and won the Rookie of the Year award ( with Jason Kidd). He registered 20 points, 6 rebounds and 5 assists. His shooting spreads were 48/15/73. Grant Hill has never been a great 3-point shooter, but the 3-point hasn’t been highlighted as much as it is today either.
The Pistons also finished the season 28-54. They were 20-62 the season before, so it was just an eight-game improvement.
I think Grant Hill’s numbers are pretty realistic for Cade Cunningham as a rookie. He’ll obviously shoot better at three because he was a 40% 3-point shooter in college, but he won’t be able to attack the basket as well as Grant Hill could.
Grant Hill was also 22 as a rookie. I bring this up in the context of Cade Cunningham because he’s 19 and comes from college. He’s struggled with turnovers in college (4 per game) before, so there’s going to be some adjustment to the speed of the NBA.
I think some realistic numbers for Cade Cunningham in his rookie season are: 18 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists on 43/36/80 shots. I think he’s going to have a hard time with turnovers like he did a bit in college as he tries to adjust to the NBA. With all of Dwane Casey’s mantra that rookies “win it”, this could sometimes cause Cade to have a short leash depending on how well the Pistons are performing. Dwane Casey is going to let Cade play through the mistakes, but he’s also going to do what he thinks is best for Cade’s development.
Can Cade win the rookie of the year title?
I think Cunningham still has a good shot at winning the rookie of the year title, but he probably won’t be the top scorer among the rookies either, which usually means a lot to voters for the awards. Most draft analysts consider Jalen Green to be the top pure scorer in this draft class. He will also play for a Rockets team that will play faster than the Pistons. For that reason, I would pick Jalen Green for Rookie of the Year because he’s probably going to lead all rookies in the scorecard. However, there are exceptions to this “scorers win awards” narrative like LaMelo Ball winning Rookie of the Year over Anthony Edwards last season.
That being said, we can take a look at No.1’s previous picks and their ranking in the Rookie of the Year vote to get a feel for Cade’s chances.
The No.1 picks have not performed very well in the Rookie of the Year vote since 2010. The only No.1 picks to win the award since 2010 are Kyrie Irving, Blake Griffin, Andrew Wiggins, Karl Anthony-Towns and Ben Simmons. There are also weird outliers like Michael Carter-Williams and Malcolm Brogdon who take home the award.
This shows that the Rookie of the Year award is quite random and that the “best player” in the class is not guaranteed to win the award. If Cade displays the numbers I listed above, he’s got a good shot, but I wouldn’t put all my money on it.
Expectations for pistons
It’s important to keep in mind that the Pistons had the second-worst league record last season. And even though they have played a lot of competitive games, things are going to have to work out so that they can compete for the play-in game, let alone the playoffs. Cade Cunningham will certainly improve the squad as a rookie, but what gets better remains to be seen.
Even if the Pistons are better, the other teams in the Eastern Conference will improve. And as I pointed out above, even when players like Luka and Grant Hill have had fantastic rookie seasons, their teams haven’t done THAT much better or come close to fighting for the playoffs. .
I know everyone is in seventh heaven after drafting Cade Cunningham (so am I). But we also need to temper our expectations a bit. I don’t want fans to turn on Cade because he didn’t score 25 points per game as a rookie and lead the Pistons to the playoffs.
The Pistons have their franchise face, now is the time to wait and see it all unfold.
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