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LOS ANGELES – In Los Angeles County, an average of 10 people test positive for coronavirus every minute. Every six minutes, someone dies from Covid-19, according to county public health data.
The startling numbers come as California’s most populous county quickly approaches one million confirmed cases of coronavirus since the pandemic began last year.
According to county public health officials, more than 958,400 people in Los Angeles have been infected with the virus and nearly 13,000 people have died on Wednesday. The numbers are also sobering statewide. California has nearly 2.8 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus and more than 31,000 deaths as of Wednesday, according to figures from NBC News. A more contagious variant of the virus has also been detected in the area.
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Epidemiologists and elected officials face an uncomfortable question as the Covid-19 crisis in Los Angeles metastasizes: How did Los Angeles become the center of the pandemic?
“LA is a fairly large and complex county with factors such as overpopulation, poverty and a large essential workforce,” said Dr. Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, epidemiologist at the University of California at San Francisco. “These things have come together at a time of the pandemic where we are also seeing a lot of fatigue and a decrease in adherence to the basic things that you need to do to stay safe, like wearing a mask.”
In many ways, Los Angeles was particularly vulnerable to the crisis.
Pandemic fatigue has set in with the approach of cooler weather and shorter days, making outdoor activities less appealing, even in an area known for its temperate climate. This, combined with vacation travel, gatherings and a large essential workforce, with many members living in overcrowded or dense housing, has created a confluence of issues.
“At least the way this virus is transmitted, you don’t need to have a Hell’s Kitchen-like urban density,” said Dr. George Rutherford, also an epidemiologist at the University of California at San Francisco. “Los Angeles has small family homes with a lot of people. It’s hard to be a gardener working from home.”
The convergence of environmental factors continues to confuse public health officials, who have repeatedly warned that the next few weeks could be the worst of the pandemic as the post-holiday surge continues.
County public officials issued new recommendations on Monday for essential workers and people who run essential errands to wear masks inside their own homes to avoid infecting loved ones, especially those with factors at high risk.
“One of the most heartbreaking conversations our health workers share is … when children apologize to their parents and grandparents for bringing Covid home, for making them sick,” Hilda Solis, chairman of the Los Angeles County Supervisory Board, said Tuesday at a press conference. “These apologies are just some of the last words loved ones will ever hear when they die alone.”
According to county public health officials, the recent outbreak began in early November, shortly after private gatherings were allowed, personal care services reopened, the Dodgers won the World Series and on Halloween weekend.
Less than a month later, the county was forced to reintroduce restrictions first enacted in the spring, including ending al fresco dining, limiting the number of people allowed inside essential businesses and l ‘prohibition of several households to gather, indoors or outdoors. A modified stay-at-home order was issued around Thanksgiving, but by that time cases were already increasing exponentially.
“Once you’re behind the eight ball, it’s hard to put the genie back into the bottle,” Bibbins-Domingo said. “This is the situation you don’t want to be in.”
Yet this is the scenario currently unfolding in much of southern California, where hospitals remain overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients. According to Los Angeles County Public Health Director Dr Barbara Ferrer, Los Angeles has seen a 1,000% increase in Covid-19 cases since November 1.
“Everyone should keep in mind that the rates of transmission in the community are so high that you run the risk of exposure every time you leave your home,” she said at a conference release last week. “Suppose this deadly invisible virus is everywhere, looking for a willing host.”
But nearly a year after the start of the pandemic, fatigue seems to be everywhere.
The mixed messages from elected leaders only worsened feelings of fatigue, experts say, starting with the federal government’s early minimization of the coronavirus and spilling over to state and city levels where opinions on it who should stay open and what should stay closed can vary widely. .
“The federal government needs to own the confusion of the message and the resistance it engenders,” said Rutherford.
Experts also point to confusion and frustration stemming from the strict stay-at-home orders that were issued at the start of the pandemic when California had relatively low cases of the coronavirus. Unlike New York City, which closed after cases soared, Los Angeles preemptively shut down many businesses and limited outdoor activities before suffering such a surge, which led some residents and executives to premises to question the effectiveness of the restrictions.
“You have to think about the psychology behind it,” Bibbins-Domingo said. “When you’ve seen the devastation New York has seen early on, it’s easier to implement strong public health strategies. It’s a much harder thing to do in 10 months when people are tired.
Despite the deadly outbreak, protesters took to the streets this month, marching through grocery stores and malls to call for the reopening of California’s economy and encourage people to challenge the state’s mask mandate.
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Some of the resistance came as a result of elected leaders flouting the very rules they sought to impose. Governor Gavin Newsom and San Francisco Mayor London Breed, both Democrats, were pictured dining indoors last year at an upscale wine restaurant, while House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was seen having his hair cut even though many salons have remained closed statewide.
The backlash was swift from top to bottom in California.
Small business owners protested stay-at-home orders, and a recall effort against Newsom quickly gained traction. In Orange and Riverside counties, sheriff’s services have indicated that home law enforcement will not be a priority after restrictions are put in place, while some restaurants in San Diego and Los Angeles are defying openly stay at home orders for weeks.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to lowering transmission rates, Bibbins-Domingo says, is convincing people that their actions can save lives.
“If we cannot accept and understand how our destinies are linked, we will not go back to normal,” she said.
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