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The entire San Francisco Bay Area is seeing a surge in COVID-19-related hospitalizations for the first time since the summer, when the region saw more hospitalizations than when the initial wave hit in the spring.
By comparing the numbers of cases, hospitalizations and rates of increase between winter and summer, it is clear that this current wave is worse than that of the summer, making the situation of local hospitals the most disastrous since the start of the pandemic. Using raw case counts is a bit misleading as every county in the Bay Area is conducting more testing now than over the summer, and the summer case numbers have been affected by an issue with data in late July and early August.
However, the rate of increase in the number of cases is still a useful measure, and the charts below show that in most of the Bay Area counties cases are increasing faster (the slope is steeper). than summer.
Charts of daily COVID-19 cases in San Francisco and San Mateo counties. Each individual light blue bar represents a daily total and the blue line represents a 14-day moving average of daily cases. The large spikes in early August were the result of a state-level data glitch.
California Department of Public Health
Charts of daily COVID-19 cases in Alameda and Santa Clara counties. Each bar represents a daily total and the blue line represents a 14-day moving average of daily cases. The large spikes in early August were the result of a state-level data glitch.
California Department of Public HealthThese sharp increases in cases are fueling concerns that this winter wave could eventually overwhelm the region’s hospital system. Below are hospitalization statistics from the California Department of Public Health website, which illustrate what hospitals could be facing in the weeks and months to come. For availability, the state reports only the number of intensive care unit (ICU) beds available, as opposed to the total number of hospital beds.
Many counties are quickly approaching their summer highs, and two Bay Area counties – Santa Clara and Solano – have already surpassed their highest summer totals to set new records. This is certainly not good news given that cases continue to rise and hospitalizations lag behind infections by a week or two. The number of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalization is expected to increase only during the month, with each county likely to record the highest number of hospitalizations in the pandemic.
In addition, some counties have fewer intensive care beds available now than they did at the peak of summer, which can be attributed to typical influenza season hospitalizations now adding to an existing mix of patients. hospitalized by COVID, heart attacks, strokes, accidents or other causes. California Health and Human Services Secretary Dr Mark Ghaly had previously warned of the challenges of the flu and hospitalizations associated with COVID at the same time.
Here’s a look at how the current hospitalization surge compares to the summer surge:
Alameda
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 283 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 234 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 34.1% increase
Week-over-week hospitalizations percentage increase now: 33.0% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 90 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 75 beds (there are currently 60 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Against the coast
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 153 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 133 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 27.5% increase
Percentage of hospitalizations increased week to week now: 38.0% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 39 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 41 beds (There are currently 34 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Marine
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 44 patients (July 7)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 17 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 51.7% increase
Week-over-week hospitalizations percentage increase now: 70.0% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 16 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 12 beds (There are currently four COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Napa
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 17 patients (July 25)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 11 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 41.7% increase
Percentage of hospitalizations increased week to week now: 22.2% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 2 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 22 beds (There are currently seven COVID patients in intensive care beds)
San Francisco
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 132 patients (August 18)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 91 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 17.7% increase
Week-over-week hospitalizations percentage increase now: 44.4% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 51 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 63 beds (there are currently 27 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Saint Matthew
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 86 patients (July 27)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 78 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 4.9% increase
Percentage of hospitalizations increased week to week now: 52.9% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 24 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 40 beds (there are currently 18 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Santa Clara
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 241 patients (July 29)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 312 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 11.1% increase
Week-over-week hospitalizations percentage increase now: 31.6% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 103 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 43 beds (There are currently 89 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Solano
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 77 patients (July 23)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 81 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak summer: 37.5% increase
Percentage of hospitalizations increased week to week now: 8.6% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 14 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 12 beds (there are currently 24 COVID patients in intensive care beds)
Sonoma
Maximum number of COVID hospitalizations during the summer flare: 79 patients (June 8)
Current number of COVID hospitalizations: 43 patients
Increase in the percentage of weekly hospitalizations at peak: 17.9% increase
Percentage of hospitalizations increased week to week now: 19.4% increase
Beds available in intensive care at the top: 47 beds
Intensive care beds available now: 4 beds (There are currently seven COVID patients in intensive care beds)
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