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- The coronavirus has mutated, with a variant called B.1.1.7 causing concern.
- New evidence suggests that B.1.1.7 is probably around 70% more infectious than the other variants.
- There is growing speculation that children are more likely to be infected with the variant, but we are not sure.
- The UK’s largest teachers’ union has called for schools to remain closed for two weeks from January 4.
- Here’s everything we know so far.
- Visit the Business Insider homepage for more stories.
A variant of the coronavirus called B.1.1.7 is causing major disruption, precipitating new lockdowns and travel restrictions.
Experts are starting to suggest that children are more susceptible to B.1.1.7. – and the UK’s largest teachers’ union has called for schools to remain closed for two weeks from January 4.
The evidence, so far, is inconclusive and scientists continue to investigate. Here’s what we know so far.
Why is the variant more contagious?
More people are becoming infected with COVID-19 – the disease that causes coronavirus – and scientists say B.1.1.7 is likely more infectious, but evidence is still emerging.
Dr Anthony Fauci, director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Tuesday that the UK variant has likely already spread in the United States.
More information is expected in the coming weeks, but B.1.1.7 is not believed to be more or less fatal than the original virus.
It is normal for a virus to mutate, and there have already been tens of thousands of coronavirus mutations.
The new variant, however, significantly modifies the virus, potentially altering its behavior. For example, B.1.1.7 has changes in the spike protein – the part of the virus that is used to infect cells – that could mean it more easily enters cells.
The spike protein is also the target of vaccines, but experts believe vaccines will still work.
Are children more sensitive to the new variant?
“There is a hint that it has a higher propensity to infect children,” Professor Neil Ferguson told reporters on Monday. He is an infectious disease epidemiologist at Imperial College London and also a member of the New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Group – NERVTAG – the UK government’s advisory group.
The reason for this difference could be because the body’s ACE-2 receptor, where the virus binds, is a little different in children and adults.
Ferguson told the House of Commons select committee on Wednesday that there had been anecdotal reports of the variant in schools in areas of England now under the strictest lockdown.
The concern contrasts with previous variants of the coronavirus circulating in the UK. Chris Whitty, the UK’s chief medical officer, said in a statement in August that there was reasonable – although not conclusive – evidence that elementary school children were less likely to catch COVID-19 than general population.
Professor Wendy Barclay, head of the infectious diseases department at Imperial College London, and a member of NERVTAG, said in a briefing to reporters on Tuesday that the B.1.1.7 variant might bind better to the ACE-2 receptor in the children, adding that she was speculating.
“I haven’t seen any data indicating that it’s actually transmitted more in children,” Barclay said.
Barclay explained that it is unusual for children not to be affected by a respiratory virus.
“We know that almost all other respiratory infections spread to children. It wouldn’t surprise me if they ended up spreading quite freely. [amongst children],” she said,
Ferguson said on Wednesday there was a slight – but statistically significant – increase in the proportion of cases under 15 with the new variant, compared to the old variant. He said that didn’t mean it would affect children more.
“I want to stress – although this is a significant change [in age distribution], it’s not a huge change. It’s relatively small, ”he added.
‘Too early to say’
Ferguson, whose coronavirus forecast triggered the UK’s first lockdown, said scientists needed to collect more data to see how the variant performed.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4 on Monday, Ferguson said he expected all variants of the virus in circulation to drop as schools remain closed for the holidays, but it is too early to say precisely which additional measures may be needed in the new year.
Some scientists have advocated closing schools only as a last resort. Professor Deenan Pillay, professor of virology at University College London, told the Guardian on Monday that the focus should be on supporting schools to operate as safely as possible.
“It’s easy to start to think of this variant as a different virus, but no, it’s the same virus. And it’s transmitted the same way,” he said.
The UK government could rely on tests to support schools.
“If we work together on the tests we can keep the schools open,” Gavin Williamson, UK education secretary, said in a statement on Monday.
The variant can be detected by normal testing, although some may need to be modified slightly. A test used by major UK laboratories examines three parts of the virus’s genetic sequence. Mutations in B.1.1.7 mean that only two of the three parts of the virus that appear normally come back positive.
Experts recommend that measures that limit the spread of the virus, such as social distancing, remain paramount. The challenge will come in 2021 when decisions will have to be made about schools.
“The real question then is – how far can we relax the measures in the new year, while still maintaining control?” Ferguson said.
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