In the 2020 Democrats' survival strategies

Bernie Sanders must win New Hampshire. Julian Castro left everything on Nevada. South Carolina is essential to Cory Booker's chances.

The 23 candidates for the continuation of the Democratic nomination accumulate events and devote resources to the first four presidential states, telegraphically stating which states they give priority to and which ones they write off.

History continues below

The campaigns hate to discuss the map of the primary season in terms of states or contests that they do not think they can win. But already, the outlines of their strategies are visible.

Interviews with nearly two dozen campaign leaders, party leaders, and grassroots activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina reveal that staffing decisions, schedules and field organizations are starting to impact the county and constituency.

This is how primitive democrats define the state of the primary democratic.

IOWA

According to the saying, Iowa does not always choose the winners, but almost always the losers. This is probably more true in 2020 than ever before.

John Hickenlooper, Amy Klobuchar and John Delaney, Eric Swalwell, Steve Bullock These are just a few of the candidates who need to be ranked well in the February 3 caucuses to move forward realistically.

Beto O'Rourke is among those signaling a solid arrival in Iowa is crucial. The former Texas Congressman chose him for his first stop after announcing his presidential campaign. It has already organized 67 town halls and other public events in 36 of the 99 counties of the state. His trip last week marked his fourth trip since arriving in the race in mid-March.

Despite this relatively late start, O'Rourke quickly assembled a 16-man operation in Iowa led by Norm Sterzenbach, a former executive director of the Iowa Democratic Party, who was immersed in caucus mechanics.

Joe Biden, who failed to emerge from Iowa when he applied for 2008, but is currently the favorite, is another one whose campaign will be crushed by Iowa's poor performance.

According to the state's top leaders and rival campaigners, his expectations are particularly great: the strength of his candidacy will be measured not by his ability to win Iowa, but by its magnitude.

Biden has promised to travel frequently to Iowa, but his visits and investments in the organization need to accelerate quickly: this is the latest state in which Biden has announced its endowment in staff – well after building a few rivals – and it only made a trip to the state up here.

"I think the challenge facing him is that being a leader is a death kiss," said Jerry Crawford, a longtime Democratic powerbroker from Iowa, noting that the dominant head of Biden means that he will be the target of attacks for the next eight years. month.

Bernie Sanders, Still beating Biden in the polls, he beat Hillary Clinton by three-tenths of a percentage point in 2016. This strong performance puts more pressure on winning or getting closer.

Import sign that Sanders attaches to the state: it moves away from traditional rallies to address issues that arise during protests, reflecting the demands of Iowa voters for more interaction with candidates .

This time he already starts armed with a fervent support base. When the Vermont Senator was launched in February, 19,000 people signed up for the Iowa campaign, either to volunteer, to donate, or even to donate to the Vermont Senator's caucus. In three months, that number has risen to more than 25,700, which is already about 15% of the 171,000 Democrats who participated in the 2016 caucuses.

"We inherited a movement," says Pete D'Alessandro, senior advisor to Sanders in Iowa. "These are people who have not left."

Yet it is Elizabeth Warren who poured more resources into Iowa than maybe none of its competitors.

The magnitude of its expansive field organization indicates its ambitions. She stated that her intention was to compete in the first four states and proved it by assigning 200 paid staff members to Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

In the first two states to vote – Iowa and New Hampshire – Warren has organized more than 50 events in total so far, which bears witness to the realistic nature of these states for his campaign. She does not need to win in Iowa, but her huge investment in the state means that a bad finish would be a blow to her campaign. And she'll need some sort of Iowa bounce to succeed in New Hampshire, where she should rank among the top three to continue.

Cory Booker, another who made swift and important investments in Iowa's staff, is generally considered one of the best organizations on the state's ground. Iowa is not an essential state for him – his biggest gamble being for South Carolina – but his campaign is aware that Barack Obama's success in the South in 2008 only came after Iowa has issued its first approval visa.

Booker is better placed in Iowa than Kamala Harris, which ranks among his best rivals in South Carolina. His team will not reveal the numbers in Iowa. But Harris has some knowledge of the state since his campaign for Obama in 2008, and Deidre DeJear, his campaign chairman in Iowa, was the first black Iowa candidate to hold a position in a big political party when she was secretary of state last year.

NEW HAMPSHIRE

For a top performer in Iowa, New Hampshire is a lifesaver. And if a lower ranked candidate surprises the field in Iowa, New Hampshire will become the instant check of reality. As a result, more and more candidates flock – and more frequently – than local Democrats remember.

The two most pressure candidates in New Hampshire are Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Sanders crushed Hillary Clinton by more than 20 percentage points in New Hampshire in 2016, making it a must win for him in 2020. Warren, another nearby senator who shares a media deal with the state, must also finish in the green. top three to meet expectations.

For the moment, however, Joe Biden which is well ahead of both in the recent New Hampshire polls.

State Democrats appoint Sanders, Warren, Kamala Harris, Cory Booker and John Delaney as having the most robust staffs of the state. Warren has worked hard to be there, organizing 26 events since his announcement.

"There was that kind of … false story that started the New Hampshire primary season: is it still important? Is it still relevant? "Said New Hampshire Young Democrat President Lucas Meyer. "And I think the way campaigns have been built over the past two months by investing time and staff has been clearly erased."

State Senator Lou D'Allesandro said Biden "must do well" in New Hampshire to keep his favorite status alive. Until here, he says, Biden is off and Warren seems to be reducing Sanders' advantage.

"Pete [Buttigieg], Biden and Kamala [Harris] are generating enthusiasm right now, "said D'Allesandro, who has long been an influential player in the primary state. "Now you have to capitalize on that if you want to stay in the game."

Pete ButtigiegSanders could be a problem because of its appeal to young voters. The mayor of Indiana has already been warned for hiring Michael Ceraso, who participated in Sanders' 2016 presidential campaigns and Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012, to direct his efforts. For Buttigieg, it is urgent to leave one's mark in Iowa or New Hampshire – it already has 10 employees in each state – because the demographic landscape of Nevada and South Carolina does not suit it as well.

NEVADA

At present, Nevada is considered the most open of the first four candidate states. Most campaigns see it as an opportunity to get involved in the successes of previous states or to stand out after a poor performance in Iowa or New Hampshire.

The state caucuses are discreet enough that no candidate is likely to see his candidacy made or broken, with the exception of one: the former mayor of San Antonio and secretary of the HUD. Julián Castro. His candidacy is based almost entirely on good results in Nevada, which has the largest Latin American population – 29% – among the early-voting states.

Although the state may not be considered decisive for Kamala Harris, which represents neighboring California, it is a priority. A poor performance in Nevada would be an alarming sign of weakness, just 10 days before his home country.

That's why she went to Nevada four times as a presidential candidate – more trips than she did in Iowa and New Hampshire – and signed Emmy Ruiz, who guided Hillary Clinton's victory in Nevada as a senior advisor to her national staff.

Most of the candidates have been slow to show up in Nevada, traditionally the son-in-law of the first candidate states. With a very transient population and a relatively short caucus history, it is difficult to get there and go there. A large number of Las Vegas service employees – most of whom are influential union members in state caucuses – work nights and the summer temperatures are unbearable for many campaign agents during the day.

There are very few public polls on the state of the race, but it is clear Joe Biden attracted significant support because of its longstanding ties with Nevada. In a state where the support of the workforce is crucial, Biden was approved early in his campaign by Senator Senator Yvanna Cancela, a former political director of the influential Culinary Workers Union.

The former vice president, who visited Nevada shortly after announcing his campaign, also reunited state staff fairly quickly.

But he is not the only candidate to have expressed his intention to compete hard here. Among those who hired state directors: Warren, Harris, Booker, Castro, Sanders and Representative Seth Moulton.

CAROLINE FROM THE SOUTH

Four candidates have the most riding on South Carolina, home to the South's first primary: Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

Sanders does not necessarily need to win there, but his campaign recognizes that he can not get beat as he did in 2016. At the time, his hopes The presidential elections were stifled after a 47-point loss to Hillary Clinton, a defeat that exposed his weakness. among African-American voters.

Last month, Sanders sent the message that 2020 would be different, deploying the endorsements of seven lawmakers of the black state. His campaign has already built a list of more than 20,800 supporters in the state.

"I think Senator Sanders seems to have learned from the 2016 campaign. He is investing heavily in his field staff, here and in the African-American community," said the Democratic Party president. State, Robertson Trav. "He looks to solicit and cross the state in very different ways … he has a field staff and he's not an inexperienced staff."

The state's African-American voting block will also be essential to Booker, Harris and Biden's fortunes. Biden now leads globally in the state, according to a recent surveybut more importantly, he leads among black voters. This is a problem for Harris and Booker, the two African-American senators who are also fighting over this electorate.

Although he was one of the last to take part in the race, Biden has appointed five senior management staff to his team just hours after launching his bid. Warren has also quietly invested here, recruiting a strong senior team and touring the state for mayoral meetings since January.

However, few are investing so much in winning South Carolina as Booker – it's also close to a state to win imperative for him. In addition to having opened a campaign office in the rural area of ​​Orangeburg, he has been to the state six times – more than Booker has traveled to another state.

Despite Booker's attention, he is still in the morgue, according to the latest poll. He is mired in fourth place – even behind Pete Buttigieg, who cleaned up with donors at a recent private fundraiser in Charleston. But Buttigieg has not yet demonstrated that he could appeal to black voters. He does not have a state director in South Carolina and his team is just starting to recruit in the state.

"Pete is a new quantity," said Mike Schmuhl, campaign manager at Buttigieg. "It's no secret to anyone. Joe Biden, Kamala Harris and Cory Booker are well known and appreciated by African Americans in South Carolina. We just need to build an infrastructure on the ground. "

Nolan D. McCaskill and Holly Otterbein contributed to this report.